Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 18–19 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 34.6% | 32.7–36.5% | 32.1–37.1% | 31.7–37.6% | 30.8–38.5% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 30.3% | 28.5–32.2% | 27.9–32.7% | 27.5–33.2% | 26.6–34.1% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.3% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.5–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 22 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 23 | 22% | 94% | |
| 24 | 35% | 73% | Median |
| 25 | 27% | 37% | |
| 26 | 9% | 10% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 20% | 94% | |
| 21 | 38% | 74% | Median |
| 22 | 27% | 35% | |
| 23 | 7% | 9% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 37% | 96% | |
| 7 | 47% | 59% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 12% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 34% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 61% | 66% | Median |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 46% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 51% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 59% | 98.8% | Median |
| 3 | 39% | 40% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 63% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 36% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 22 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 23 | 22% | 94% | |
| 24 | 35% | 73% | Median |
| 25 | 27% | 37% | |
| 26 | 9% | 10% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 20% | 94% | |
| 21 | 38% | 74% | Median |
| 22 | 27% | 35% | |
| 23 | 7% | 9% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 37% | 96% | |
| 7 | 47% | 59% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 12% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 18–19 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.67%