Opinion Poll by GESOP for Prensa Ibérica, 23–26 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 33.3% 31.4–35.2% 30.9–35.8% 30.4–36.2% 29.5–37.2%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 27.0% 25.2–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 13.0% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 22–24 21–25 21–25 20–26
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Vox (PfE) 0 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.9%  
21 7% 98.9%  
22 38% 92%  
23 26% 54% Median
24 21% 27%  
25 6% 7%  
26 0.6% 0.6%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 16% 98%  
18 33% 81% Median
19 35% 49%  
20 13% 14%  
21 1.3% 1.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 4% 99.9%  
8 31% 96%  
9 51% 65% Median
10 13% 14%  
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 65% 94% Median
5 27% 29%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 57% 99.5% Median
3 40% 42%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 71% 73% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 86% 98% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 80% 81% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 64% 64% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 0% 22–24 21–25 21–25 20–26
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 0% 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Vox (PfE) 0 9 0% 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.9%  
21 7% 98.9%  
22 38% 92%  
23 26% 54% Median
24 21% 27%  
25 6% 7%  
26 0.6% 0.6%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 16% 98%  
18 33% 81% Median
19 35% 49%  
20 13% 14%  
21 1.3% 1.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 4% 99.9%  
8 31% 96%  
9 51% 65% Median
10 13% 14%  
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations