Opinion Poll by 40dB for Prisa, 25–27 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partido Popular (EPP) |
0.0% |
34.6% |
33.2–36.0% |
32.9–36.4% |
32.5–36.7% |
31.9–37.4% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) |
0.0% |
29.7% |
28.4–31.0% |
28.0–31.4% |
27.7–31.7% |
27.1–32.4% |
Vox (PfE) |
0.0% |
10.5% |
9.7–11.4% |
9.4–11.7% |
9.2–11.9% |
8.8–12.4% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) |
0.0% |
4.9% |
4.3–5.6% |
4.2–5.8% |
4.0–5.9% |
3.8–6.3% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
3.8% |
3.3–4.4% |
3.2–4.6% |
3.0–4.7% |
2.8–5.0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.2% |
2.2–3.4% |
2.1–3.5% |
1.9–3.8% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
2.3% |
1.9–2.8% |
1.8–2.9% |
1.7–3.1% |
1.6–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
34% |
94% |
|
25 |
44% |
59% |
Median |
26 |
14% |
15% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
17% |
98.7% |
|
21 |
50% |
82% |
Median |
22 |
28% |
32% |
|
23 |
4% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
8% |
100% |
|
7 |
65% |
92% |
Median |
8 |
26% |
26% |
|
9 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
4% |
100% |
|
3 |
83% |
96% |
Median |
4 |
13% |
13% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
2 |
74% |
99.8% |
Median |
3 |
25% |
25% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
52% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
48% |
48% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
87% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
13% |
13% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partido Popular (EPP) |
0 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) |
0 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–23 |
19–23 |
Vox (PfE) |
0 |
7 |
0% |
7–8 |
6–8 |
6–8 |
6–9 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
34% |
94% |
|
25 |
44% |
59% |
Median |
26 |
14% |
15% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
17% |
98.7% |
|
21 |
50% |
82% |
Median |
22 |
28% |
32% |
|
23 |
4% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vox (PfE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
8% |
100% |
|
7 |
65% |
92% |
Median |
8 |
26% |
26% |
|
9 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: 40dB
- Commissioner(s): Prisa
- Fieldwork period: 25–27 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.94%