Opinion Poll by DYM for Henneo, 8–11 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.1% | 31.2–35.0% | 30.7–35.6% | 30.3–36.1% | 29.4–37.0% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.2% | 26.4–30.0% | 25.9–30.6% | 25.5–31.0% | 24.7–31.9% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 12.6% | 11.4–14.0% | 11.0–14.4% | 10.7–14.8% | 10.1–15.5% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.2–6.6% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.8–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 12% | 98% | |
| 23 | 29% | 86% | |
| 24 | 35% | 58% | Median |
| 25 | 18% | 23% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 18 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 25% | 94% | |
| 20 | 37% | 69% | Median |
| 21 | 24% | 32% | |
| 22 | 7% | 8% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 33% | 95% | |
| 9 | 47% | 62% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 16% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 9% | 100% | |
| 3 | 68% | 91% | Median |
| 4 | 23% | 24% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 18% | 100% | |
| 3 | 69% | 82% | Median |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 38% | 100% | |
| 2 | 60% | 62% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 75% | 76% | Median |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 12% | 98% | |
| 23 | 29% | 86% | |
| 24 | 35% | 58% | Median |
| 25 | 18% | 23% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 18 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 25% | 94% | |
| 20 | 37% | 69% | Median |
| 21 | 24% | 32% | |
| 22 | 7% | 8% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 33% | 95% | |
| 9 | 47% | 62% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 16% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: DYM
- Commissioner(s): Henneo
- Fieldwork period: 8–11 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1015
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.61%