Opinion Poll by GAD3 for Mediaset, 11–14 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.5% | 30.7–34.4% | 30.2–35.0% | 29.7–35.5% | 28.9–36.4% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 27.7% | 26.0–29.5% | 25.5–30.1% | 25.1–30.5% | 24.2–31.4% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 15.6% | 14.3–17.2% | 13.9–17.6% | 13.5–18.0% | 12.9–18.7% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 22% | 95% | |
| 23 | 32% | 73% | Median |
| 24 | 30% | 41% | |
| 25 | 10% | 11% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 10% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 29% | 89% | |
| 20 | 37% | 60% | Median |
| 21 | 20% | 23% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 26% | 96% | |
| 11 | 47% | 71% | Median |
| 12 | 21% | 24% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 98.9% | Median |
| 3 | 40% | 41% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 71% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 26% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 75% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 24% | 25% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 22% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 22% | 95% | |
| 23 | 32% | 73% | Median |
| 24 | 30% | 41% | |
| 25 | 10% | 11% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 10% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 29% | 89% | |
| 20 | 37% | 60% | Median |
| 21 | 20% | 23% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 26% | 96% | |
| 11 | 47% | 71% | Median |
| 12 | 21% | 24% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): Mediaset
- Fieldwork period: 11–14 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1036
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.73%