Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 20–22 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.2% | 30.6–33.9% | 30.1–34.4% | 29.8–34.8% | 29.0–35.7% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.3% | 26.7–30.0% | 26.3–30.4% | 25.9–30.8% | 25.2–31.6% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 14.6% | 13.4–15.9% | 13.0–16.3% | 12.8–16.6% | 12.2–17.3% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.8–5.8% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.4–6.4% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.8–4.5% | 2.7–4.7% | 2.4–5.1% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–4.0% | 1.9–4.3% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.3–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 30% | 95% | |
| 23 | 40% | 65% | Median |
| 24 | 21% | 25% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 24% | 96% | |
| 20 | 40% | 73% | Median |
| 21 | 27% | 32% | |
| 22 | 5% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 11% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 57% | 88% | Median |
| 11 | 28% | 30% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 14% | 100% | |
| 3 | 75% | 86% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 16% | 16% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 32% | 100% | |
| 2 | 67% | 68% | Median |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 99.0% | Median |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 19–21 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 30% | 95% | |
| 23 | 40% | 65% | Median |
| 24 | 21% | 25% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 24% | 96% | |
| 20 | 40% | 73% | Median |
| 21 | 27% | 32% | |
| 22 | 5% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 11% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 57% | 88% | Median |
| 11 | 28% | 30% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 20–22 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1303
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.17%