Opinion Poll by 40dB for Prisa, 25–27 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.0–34.7% | 31.6–35.1% | 31.3–35.4% | 30.6–36.1% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 29.9% | 28.6–31.2% | 28.2–31.6% | 27.9–31.9% | 27.3–32.6% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 13.1% | 12.2–14.1% | 11.9–14.4% | 11.7–14.7% | 11.2–15.2% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.7–3.7% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.3% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.7–3.7% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.3% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.2–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 22–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 21–22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 25% | 98% | |
| 24 | 49% | 73% | Median |
| 25 | 21% | 23% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 43% | 91% | Median |
| 22 | 40% | 49% | |
| 23 | 8% | 9% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 66% | 91% | Median |
| 10 | 24% | 25% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 13% | 100% | |
| 2 | 86% | 87% | Median |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 13% | 100% | |
| 2 | 85% | 87% | Median |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 37% | 100% | |
| 2 | 62% | 63% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 22–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 21–22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 25% | 98% | |
| 24 | 49% | 73% | Median |
| 25 | 21% | 23% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 43% | 91% | Median |
| 22 | 40% | 49% | |
| 23 | 8% | 9% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 66% | 91% | Median |
| 10 | 24% | 25% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: 40dB
- Commissioner(s): Prisa
- Fieldwork period: 25–27 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.01%