Opinion Poll by GESOP for Prensa Ibérica, 2–4 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.1% | 29.2–33.0% | 28.7–33.5% | 28.3–34.0% | 27.4–34.9% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.3% | 26.5–30.1% | 26.0–30.7% | 25.6–31.2% | 24.7–32.1% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 14.9% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.1–16.9% | 12.8–17.2% | 12.2–18.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 13% | 98% | |
| 21 | 34% | 86% | |
| 22 | 32% | 51% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 19% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 13% | 98% | |
| 19 | 30% | 85% | |
| 20 | 35% | 55% | Median |
| 21 | 17% | 20% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 22% | 98% | |
| 10 | 51% | 76% | Median |
| 11 | 22% | 26% | |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 10% | 100% | |
| 3 | 70% | 90% | Median |
| 4 | 20% | 20% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 93% | Median |
| 3 | 13% | 13% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 25% | 100% | |
| 2 | 72% | 75% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 81% | 99.0% | Median |
| 2 | 18% | 18% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 31% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 68% | 69% | Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 13% | 98% | |
| 21 | 34% | 86% | |
| 22 | 32% | 51% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 19% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 13% | 98% | |
| 19 | 30% | 85% | |
| 20 | 35% | 55% | Median |
| 21 | 17% | 20% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 22% | 98% | |
| 10 | 51% | 76% | Median |
| 11 | 22% | 26% | |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): Prensa Ibérica
- Fieldwork period: 2–4 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.17%