Opinion Poll by 40dB for Prisa, 20–26 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.0% | 31.7–34.4% | 31.3–34.8% | 31.0–35.1% | 30.3–35.8% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 29.5% | 28.2–30.8% | 27.8–31.2% | 27.5–31.6% | 26.9–32.2% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 13.8% | 12.8–14.8% | 12.6–15.1% | 12.3–15.4% | 11.9–15.9% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.7% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.3% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 33% | 94% | |
| 24 | 45% | 60% | Median |
| 25 | 14% | 16% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 21% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 45% | 77% | Median |
| 22 | 28% | 32% | |
| 23 | 4% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 40% | 98% | |
| 10 | 52% | 58% | Median |
| 11 | 6% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 44% | 44% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 87% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 21% | 21% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 98.6% | Median |
| 2 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 33% | 94% | |
| 24 | 45% | 60% | Median |
| 25 | 14% | 16% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 21% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 45% | 77% | Median |
| 22 | 28% | 32% | |
| 23 | 4% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 40% | 98% | |
| 10 | 52% | 58% | Median |
| 11 | 6% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: 40dB
- Commissioner(s): Prisa
- Fieldwork period: 20–26 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.35%