Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 20–27 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 35.1% | 33.2–37.1% | 32.7–37.6% | 32.2–38.1% | 31.3–39.1% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.2–29.9% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.5–31.8% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 13.9% | 12.6–15.4% | 12.2–15.8% | 11.9–16.2% | 11.3–16.9% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.3% |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 22 | 24% | 99.2% | |
| 23 | 16% | 75% | |
| 24 | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 25 | 30% | 41% | |
| 26 | 5% | 11% | |
| 27 | 6% | 6% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 15% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 20% | 84% | |
| 19 | 14% | 64% | |
| 20 | 37% | 50% | Median |
| 21 | 8% | 14% | |
| 22 | 5% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 15% | 98% | |
| 9 | 36% | 83% | Median |
| 10 | 37% | 48% | |
| 11 | 10% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 25% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 63% | 74% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 100% | |
| 2 | 70% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 35% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 65% | 65% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 42% | 42% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 22–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 22 | 24% | 99.2% | |
| 23 | 16% | 75% | |
| 24 | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 25 | 30% | 41% | |
| 26 | 5% | 11% | |
| 27 | 6% | 6% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 15% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 20% | 84% | |
| 19 | 14% | 64% | |
| 20 | 37% | 50% | Median |
| 21 | 8% | 14% | |
| 22 | 5% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 15% | 98% | |
| 9 | 36% | 83% | Median |
| 10 | 37% | 48% | |
| 11 | 10% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 20–27 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 6.14%