Opinion Poll by Hamalgama Métrica for Vozpópuli, 9–15 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 34.2% 32.3–36.2% 31.8–36.7% 31.3–37.2% 30.4–38.1%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 27.8% 26.0–29.7% 25.5–30.2% 25.1–30.7% 24.3–31.6%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 22–25 22–25 21–25 20–27
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Vox (PfE) 0 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.8% 100%  
21 2% 99.2%  
22 19% 97%  
23 26% 78%  
24 25% 52% Median
25 26% 28%  
26 1.1% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.5% 100%  
17 26% 99.5%  
18 23% 74%  
19 23% 50% Median
20 18% 27%  
21 7% 9%  
22 1.5% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 14% 99.8%  
9 20% 85%  
10 48% 65% Median
11 15% 17%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 13% 100%  
3 73% 87% Median
4 14% 14%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 74% 92% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 82% 96% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 83% 94% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 64% 64% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 33%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 0% 22–25 22–25 21–25 20–27
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 0% 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Vox (PfE) 0 10 0% 8–11 8–11 8–11 8–12
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.8% 100%  
21 2% 99.2%  
22 19% 97%  
23 26% 78%  
24 25% 52% Median
25 26% 28%  
26 1.1% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.5% 100%  
17 26% 99.5%  
18 23% 74%  
19 23% 50% Median
20 18% 27%  
21 7% 9%  
22 1.5% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 14% 99.8%  
9 20% 85%  
10 48% 65% Median
11 15% 17%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations