Opinion Poll by DYM for Henneo, 17 June 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 36.0% | 34.1–37.9% | 33.6–38.5% | 33.1–39.0% | 32.2–39.9% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 26.1% | 24.4–27.9% | 23.9–28.4% | 23.5–28.9% | 22.7–29.7% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 13.6% | 12.3–15.1% | 12.0–15.5% | 11.7–15.9% | 11.1–16.6% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 26 | 25–27 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 25 | 26% | 91% | |
| 26 | 35% | 65% | Median |
| 27 | 23% | 30% | |
| 28 | 7% | 7% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 10% | 98.8% | |
| 18 | 33% | 89% | |
| 19 | 34% | 56% | Median |
| 20 | 18% | 22% | |
| 21 | 4% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 41% | 92% | |
| 10 | 41% | 51% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 11% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 16% | 100% | |
| 3 | 67% | 84% | Median |
| 4 | 17% | 17% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 94% | Median |
| 3 | 17% | 17% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 33% | 100% | |
| 2 | 65% | 67% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 26 | 0% | 25–27 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 25 | 26% | 91% | |
| 26 | 35% | 65% | Median |
| 27 | 23% | 30% | |
| 28 | 7% | 7% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 10% | 98.8% | |
| 18 | 33% | 89% | |
| 19 | 34% | 56% | Median |
| 20 | 18% | 22% | |
| 21 | 4% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 41% | 92% | |
| 10 | 41% | 51% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 11% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: DYM
- Commissioner(s): Henneo
- Fieldwork period: 17 June 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1042
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.76%