Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 18–20 June 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 34.0% | 32.1–36.0% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.1–37.0% | 30.2–38.0% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 26.3% | 24.6–28.2% | 24.1–28.7% | 23.7–29.1% | 22.8–30.0% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 15.8% | 14.4–17.4% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.0–19.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 22 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 23 | 21% | 94% | |
| 24 | 35% | 72% | Median |
| 25 | 27% | 37% | |
| 26 | 8% | 10% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 14% | 98% | |
| 18 | 35% | 84% | Median |
| 19 | 33% | 49% | |
| 20 | 13% | 16% | |
| 21 | 3% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 25% | 96% | |
| 11 | 44% | 72% | Median |
| 12 | 23% | 28% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 21% | 100% | |
| 3 | 68% | 79% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 37% | 100% | |
| 2 | 60% | 63% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 44% | 100% | |
| 2 | 55% | 56% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 76% | 99.1% | Median |
| 2 | 23% | 23% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 22 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 23 | 21% | 94% | |
| 24 | 35% | 72% | Median |
| 25 | 27% | 37% | |
| 26 | 8% | 10% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 14% | 98% | |
| 18 | 35% | 84% | Median |
| 19 | 33% | 49% | |
| 20 | 13% | 16% | |
| 21 | 3% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 25% | 96% | |
| 11 | 44% | 72% | Median |
| 12 | 23% | 28% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 18–20 June 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.42%