Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 30 June–4 July 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 36.3% | 32.9–40.0% | 31.9–41.0% | 31.1–41.9% | 29.5–43.7% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 29.3% | 26.1–32.9% | 25.2–33.9% | 24.5–34.7% | 23.0–36.5% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 14.3% | 12.0–17.2% | 11.4–18.0% | 10.8–18.8% | 9.8–20.2% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 2.9–5.9% | 2.6–6.4% | 2.3–6.9% | 1.9–7.9% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.3–5.1% | 2.1–5.6% | 1.8–6.0% | 1.4–7.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.3–3.5% | 1.1–3.9% | 0.9–4.3% | 0.7–5.1% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.3–3.5% | 1.1–3.9% | 0.9–4.3% | 0.7–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 22–27 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 20–30 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 15–25 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 6–14 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 22 | 8% | 96% | |
| 23 | 13% | 88% | |
| 24 | 21% | 76% | |
| 25 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 35% | |
| 27 | 11% | 19% | |
| 28 | 5% | 8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98% | |
| 18 | 13% | 92% | |
| 19 | 20% | 79% | |
| 20 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 21 | 19% | 38% | |
| 22 | 12% | 19% | |
| 23 | 5% | 8% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 15% | 94% | |
| 9 | 29% | 79% | |
| 10 | 27% | 50% | Median |
| 11 | 14% | 23% | |
| 12 | 6% | 9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 10% | 100% | |
| 2 | 44% | 90% | Median |
| 3 | 35% | 46% | |
| 4 | 10% | 11% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 25% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 51% | 75% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 24% | |
| 4 | 3% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 61% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 16% | 19% | |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 63% | 86% | Median |
| 2 | 21% | 23% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 25 | 0.2% | 22–27 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 20–30 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 15–25 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 6–14 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 22 | 8% | 96% | |
| 23 | 13% | 88% | |
| 24 | 21% | 76% | |
| 25 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 35% | |
| 27 | 11% | 19% | |
| 28 | 5% | 8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 6% | 98% | |
| 18 | 13% | 92% | |
| 19 | 20% | 79% | |
| 20 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 21 | 19% | 38% | |
| 22 | 12% | 19% | |
| 23 | 5% | 8% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 15% | 94% | |
| 9 | 29% | 79% | |
| 10 | 27% | 50% | Median |
| 11 | 14% | 23% | |
| 12 | 6% | 9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Invymark
- Commissioner(s): laSexta
- Fieldwork period: 30 June–4 July 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 300
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.47%