Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 10–11 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.6% | 29.8–33.6% | 29.3–34.1% | 28.9–34.6% | 28.0–35.5% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 25.2–28.8% | 24.8–29.3% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 17.2% | 15.8–18.8% | 15.4–19.3% | 15.0–19.7% | 14.4–20.5% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.6% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.5–6.0% | 3.1–6.5% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 18% | 96% | |
| 22 | 37% | 78% | Median |
| 23 | 30% | 41% | |
| 24 | 10% | 11% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 17 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 28% | 92% | |
| 19 | 37% | 65% | Median |
| 20 | 22% | 27% | |
| 21 | 5% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 28% | 96% | |
| 12 | 44% | 68% | Median |
| 13 | 20% | 24% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 24% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 67% | 76% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 51% | 99.4% | Median |
| 3 | 46% | 48% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 42% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 58% | Median |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 18–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 18% | 96% | |
| 22 | 37% | 78% | Median |
| 23 | 30% | 41% | |
| 24 | 10% | 11% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 17 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 28% | 92% | |
| 19 | 37% | 65% | Median |
| 20 | 22% | 27% | |
| 21 | 5% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 28% | 96% | |
| 12 | 44% | 68% | Median |
| 13 | 20% | 24% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 10–11 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1027
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.79%