Opinion Poll by 40dB for Prisa, 26–28 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 30.5% | 29.2–31.9% | 28.8–32.2% | 28.5–32.6% | 27.9–33.2% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 29.4% | 28.1–30.7% | 27.8–31.1% | 27.4–31.4% | 26.8–32.1% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 15.7–17.8% | 15.4–18.1% | 15.1–18.4% | 14.6–18.9% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.6–4.8% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.1–5.4% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.1% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.8–3.6% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–13 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 29% | 97% | |
| 22 | 40% | 69% | Median |
| 23 | 27% | 29% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 20 | 18% | 98.5% | |
| 21 | 46% | 80% | Median |
| 22 | 29% | 34% | |
| 23 | 4% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 29% | 98% | |
| 12 | 55% | 69% | Median |
| 13 | 14% | 14% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 41% | 100% | |
| 3 | 59% | 59% | Median |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 39% | 100% | |
| 2 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 36% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 46% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–13 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 29% | 97% | |
| 22 | 40% | 69% | Median |
| 23 | 27% | 29% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 20 | 18% | 98.5% | |
| 21 | 46% | 80% | Median |
| 22 | 29% | 34% | |
| 23 | 4% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 29% | 98% | |
| 12 | 55% | 69% | Median |
| 13 | 14% | 14% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: 40dB
- Commissioner(s): Prisa
- Fieldwork period: 26–28 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.50%