Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 17–19 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 29.2% | 27.5–30.9% | 27.1–31.4% | 26.7–31.8% | 25.9–32.6% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.1% | 26.5–29.8% | 26.0–30.3% | 25.6–30.7% | 24.8–31.5% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–21.0% | 16.9–21.3% | 16.2–22.1% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.5–5.4% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.4–5.2% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 19 | 8% | 99.2% | |
| 20 | 28% | 91% | |
| 21 | 36% | 63% | Median |
| 22 | 22% | 27% | |
| 23 | 5% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 27% | 95% | |
| 20 | 39% | 68% | Median |
| 21 | 23% | 29% | |
| 22 | 6% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 14% | 99.0% | |
| 13 | 40% | 85% | Median |
| 14 | 34% | 45% | |
| 15 | 10% | 11% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 61% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 37% | 37% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 75% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 21% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 99.6% | Median |
| 2 | 22% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 19 | 8% | 99.2% | |
| 20 | 28% | 91% | |
| 21 | 36% | 63% | Median |
| 22 | 22% | 27% | |
| 23 | 5% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 27% | 95% | |
| 20 | 39% | 68% | Median |
| 21 | 23% | 29% | |
| 22 | 6% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 14% | 99.0% | |
| 13 | 40% | 85% | Median |
| 14 | 34% | 45% | |
| 15 | 10% | 11% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 17–19 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.94%