Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 1 December 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 33.2% | 31.4–35.0% | 30.9–35.6% | 30.5–36.0% | 29.6–36.9% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 27.6% | 26.0–29.4% | 25.5–29.9% | 25.1–30.4% | 24.3–31.2% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.5% | 17.1–20.1% | 16.7–20.6% | 16.4–21.0% | 15.7–21.7% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.7% | 3.0–4.9% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.7% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 19% | 96% | |
| 23 | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 24 | 29% | 41% | |
| 25 | 10% | 12% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 17% | 97% | |
| 19 | 36% | 80% | Median |
| 20 | 33% | 44% | |
| 21 | 10% | 11% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 30% | 95% | |
| 13 | 45% | 65% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 20% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 68% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 29% | 30% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 24% | 100% | |
| 2 | 72% | 76% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 19% | 96% | |
| 23 | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 24 | 29% | 41% | |
| 25 | 10% | 12% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 17% | 97% | |
| 19 | 36% | 80% | Median |
| 20 | 33% | 44% | |
| 21 | 10% | 11% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 30% | 95% | |
| 13 | 45% | 65% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 20% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Invymark
- Commissioner(s): laSexta
- Fieldwork period: 1 December 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.33%