Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, 26–30 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 32.4% 31.0–33.8% 30.6–34.2% 30.3–34.6% 29.6–35.3%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 26.1% 24.8–27.5% 24.4–27.9% 24.1–28.2% 23.5–28.9%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 17.8% 16.7–19.0% 16.4–19.4% 16.1–19.6% 15.6–20.2%
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.5%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.6% 4.0–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–6.0%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.7–3.7% 2.5–3.9% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.8%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–0.9%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 22 21–24 21–24 21–24 20–24
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 17–19 17–20 17–20 16–20
Vox (PfE) 0 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 1.2% 100%  
21 21% 98.7%  
22 54% 78% Median
23 12% 24%  
24 11% 11%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 28% 98%  
18 51% 71% Median
19 11% 20%  
20 8% 9%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 8% 100%  
11 21% 92%  
12 53% 71% Median
13 17% 18%  
14 1.4% 1.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 64% 92% Median
4 28% 28%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 38% 100%  
3 49% 62% Median
4 12% 12%  
5 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 22% 100%  
2 77% 78% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 93% 94% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 20% 20%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 1.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 22 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 20–24
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 0% 17–19 17–20 17–20 16–20
Vox (PfE) 0 12 0% 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 1.2% 100%  
21 21% 98.7%  
22 54% 78% Median
23 12% 24%  
24 11% 11%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 28% 98%  
18 51% 71% Median
19 11% 20%  
20 8% 9%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 8% 100%  
11 21% 92%  
12 53% 71% Median
13 17% 18%  
14 1.4% 1.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations