Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 11–13 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.1% | 30.4–33.9% | 29.9–34.4% | 29.5–34.8% | 28.7–35.6% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.4–26.7% | 23.0–27.1% | 22.6–27.5% | 21.9–28.3% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.4% | 17.0–19.9% | 16.7–20.3% | 16.3–20.7% | 15.7–21.5% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.4–5.7% | 3.1–6.2% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.3–5.2% | 3.2–5.5% | 2.9–5.9% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.1–3.7% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.7–4.2% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.5–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 11% | 98% | |
| 22 | 33% | 87% | |
| 23 | 37% | 54% | Median |
| 24 | 14% | 17% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 13% | 98.8% | |
| 17 | 36% | 86% | Median |
| 18 | 36% | 50% | |
| 19 | 13% | 14% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 32% | 94% | |
| 13 | 44% | 63% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 19% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 29% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 67% | 71% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 47% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 51% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 48% | 100% | |
| 2 | 51% | 52% | Median |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 69% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 31% | 31% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 11% | 98% | |
| 22 | 33% | 87% | |
| 23 | 37% | 54% | Median |
| 24 | 14% | 17% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 13% | 98.8% | |
| 17 | 36% | 86% | Median |
| 18 | 36% | 50% | |
| 19 | 13% | 14% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 32% | 94% | |
| 13 | 44% | 63% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 19% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SocioMétrica
- Commissioner(s): El Español
- Fieldwork period: 11–13 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.70%