Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 17–19 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 30.5% | 28.7–32.5% | 28.2–33.0% | 27.8–33.5% | 26.9–34.4% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.8% | 24.1–27.6% | 23.6–28.1% | 23.2–28.6% | 22.4–29.5% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 20.3% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.5–4.2% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 15% | 97% | |
| 21 | 34% | 82% | Median |
| 22 | 31% | 48% | |
| 23 | 14% | 16% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 22% | 95% | |
| 18 | 40% | 74% | Median |
| 19 | 27% | 34% | |
| 20 | 6% | 7% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 22% | 96% | |
| 14 | 40% | 74% | Median |
| 15 | 27% | 33% | |
| 16 | 5% | 6% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 50% | 99.6% | Median |
| 3 | 47% | 49% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 71% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 25% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 61% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 38% | 39% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 76% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 24% | 24% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 15% | 97% | |
| 21 | 34% | 82% | Median |
| 22 | 31% | 48% | |
| 23 | 14% | 16% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 22% | 95% | |
| 18 | 40% | 74% | Median |
| 19 | 27% | 34% | |
| 20 | 6% | 7% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 22% | 96% | |
| 14 | 40% | 74% | Median |
| 15 | 27% | 33% | |
| 16 | 5% | 6% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 17–19 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1005
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.25%