Opinion Poll by 40dB for Prisa, 24–25 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.1% | 29.8–32.4% | 29.4–32.8% | 29.1–33.2% | 28.5–33.8% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.3–29.9% | 27.0–30.3% | 26.7–30.6% | 26.0–31.3% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.7% | 17.6–19.9% | 17.3–20.2% | 17.0–20.5% | 16.5–21.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.2% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.8% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.2% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.0% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 16% | 98.9% | |
| 22 | 47% | 83% | Median |
| 23 | 32% | 36% | |
| 24 | 4% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 23% | 98.7% | |
| 20 | 58% | 75% | Median |
| 21 | 16% | 17% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 14% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 57% | 86% | Median |
| 14 | 26% | 28% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 75% | 99.8% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 25% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 51% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 49% | 49% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 20 | 0% | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 16% | 98.9% | |
| 22 | 47% | 83% | Median |
| 23 | 32% | 36% | |
| 24 | 4% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 23% | 98.7% | |
| 20 | 58% | 75% | Median |
| 21 | 16% | 17% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 14% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 57% | 86% | Median |
| 14 | 26% | 28% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: 40dB
- Commissioner(s): Prisa
- Fieldwork period: 24–25 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.32%