Opinion Poll by Target Point for El Debate, 24–26 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.7% | 29.9–33.5% | 29.4–34.0% | 29.0–34.5% | 28.2–35.4% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 27.6% | 25.9–29.3% | 25.4–29.8% | 25.0–30.3% | 24.2–31.1% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.3% | 16.9–19.9% | 16.5–20.3% | 16.1–20.7% | 15.5–21.5% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.3–5.7% | 3.0–6.1% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.6–4.3% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.2–5.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.6–4.1% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.3–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 22% | 95% | |
| 22 | 37% | 73% | Median |
| 23 | 27% | 36% | |
| 24 | 7% | 8% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 20% | 97% | |
| 19 | 42% | 77% | Median |
| 20 | 27% | 35% | |
| 21 | 7% | 8% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 37% | 91% | |
| 13 | 40% | 54% | Median |
| 14 | 13% | 14% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 39% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 58% | 61% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 12% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 88% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 37% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 99.0% | Median |
| 2 | 15% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 0% | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 22% | 95% | |
| 22 | 37% | 73% | Median |
| 23 | 27% | 36% | |
| 24 | 7% | 8% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 20% | 97% | |
| 19 | 42% | 77% | Median |
| 20 | 27% | 35% | |
| 21 | 7% | 8% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 37% | 91% | |
| 13 | 40% | 54% | Median |
| 14 | 13% | 14% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Target Point
- Commissioner(s): El Debate
- Fieldwork period: 24–26 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1114
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.07%