Opinion Poll by Ipsos for La Vanguardia, 23 March–8 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.6–33.3% 28.2–33.8% 27.4–34.7%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 28.4% 26.6–30.2% 26.1–30.7% 25.7–31.2% 24.9–32.0%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 18.3% 16.9–19.9% 16.5–20.4% 16.1–20.8% 15.4–21.6%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.1%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.9–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.4%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 22 20–23 20–23 19–23 19–24
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 18–22 18–22 17–22 17–22
Vox (PfE) 0 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–14
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.7%  
20 23% 97%  
21 14% 74%  
22 45% 60% Median
23 14% 15%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 28% 97%  
19 54% 69% Median
20 3% 15%  
21 2% 12%  
22 10% 10%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.8%  
11 23% 99.1%  
12 29% 76% Median
13 46% 47%  
14 0.7% 0.7%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 13% 100%  
2 74% 87% Median
3 12% 13%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 63% 98.8% Median
2 35% 35%  
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 81% 86% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 69% 98.6% Median
2 29% 29%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 77% 85% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 98.5% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 55% 55% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 23%  
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 22 0% 20–23 20–23 19–23 19–24
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 19 0% 18–22 18–22 17–22 17–22
Vox (PfE) 0 12 0% 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–14
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.7%  
20 23% 97%  
21 14% 74%  
22 45% 60% Median
23 14% 15%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 100%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 28% 97%  
19 54% 69% Median
20 3% 15%  
21 2% 12%  
22 10% 10%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.8%  
11 23% 99.1%  
12 29% 76% Median
13 46% 47%  
14 0.7% 0.7%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations