Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 28–30 May 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 33.9% 32.2–35.7% 31.7–36.2% 31.3–36.7% 30.5–37.5%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 25.9% 24.3–27.6% 23.9–28.1% 23.5–28.5% 22.8–29.3%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 17.4% 16.1–18.9% 15.7–19.3% 15.4–19.7% 14.8–20.4%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.2% 2.7–4.0% 2.5–4.2% 2.4–4.4% 2.1–4.8%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.5–3.9%
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.8%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.5%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.7%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–26
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 17–19 17–19 16–19 15–20
Vox (PfE) 0 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9%  
22 24% 97%  
23 11% 74%  
24 26% 63% Median
25 29% 37%  
26 8% 8%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 4% 99.5%  
17 46% 95% Median
18 39% 50%  
19 10% 11%  
20 0.3% 0.7%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 5% 99.8%  
11 29% 94%  
12 54% 65% Median
13 11% 11%  
14 0.4% 0.6%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 59% 88% Median
3 28% 29%  
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 83% 99.9% Median
2 17% 17%  
3 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 65% 99.9% Median
2 35% 35%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 78% 96% Median
2 17% 17%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 86% 97% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 53% 53% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 14%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–26
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 0% 17–19 17–19 16–19 15–20
Vox (PfE) 0 12 0% 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9%  
22 24% 97%  
23 11% 74%  
24 26% 63% Median
25 29% 37%  
26 8% 8%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 4% 99.5%  
17 46% 95% Median
18 39% 50%  
19 10% 11%  
20 0.3% 0.7%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 5% 99.8%  
11 29% 94%  
12 54% 65% Median
13 11% 11%  
14 0.4% 0.6%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations