Opinion Poll by Ipsos for La Vanguardia, 16–29 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 31.2% 29.6–32.8% 29.1–33.3% 28.7–33.7% 27.9–34.6%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 27.1% 25.6–28.7% 25.1–29.2% 24.8–29.6% 24.0–30.4%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 18.5% 17.2–20.0% 16.8–20.4% 16.5–20.7% 15.9–21.4%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.2% 3.5–5.4% 3.4–5.6% 3.1–6.0%
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.2–4.8%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.8% 1.1–3.1%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–3.0%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–3.0%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 20 20–22 20–22 20–23 19–24
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 17–19 17–20 17–20 17–20
Vox (PfE) 0 13 12–14 11–14 11–14 10–15
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 49% 98% Median
21 38% 49%  
22 7% 10%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 17% 99.5%  
18 56% 82% Median
19 20% 26%  
20 6% 6%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 5% 98%  
12 18% 92%  
13 59% 75% Median
14 14% 15%  
15 1.2% 1.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 22% 100%  
3 72% 78% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 76% 82% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 96% 97% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 98.5% 98.9% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 95% Median
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 77% 77% Median
2 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 20 0% 20–22 20–22 20–23 19–24
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 18 0% 17–19 17–20 17–20 17–20
Vox (PfE) 0 13 0% 12–14 11–14 11–14 10–15

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 49% 98% Median
21 38% 49%  
22 7% 10%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 17% 99.5%  
18 56% 82% Median
19 20% 26%  
20 6% 6%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 5% 98%  
12 18% 92%  
13 59% 75% Median
14 14% 15%  
15 1.2% 1.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations