Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 1–3 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 31.1% 29.3–33.0% 28.7–33.5% 28.3–34.0% 27.5–34.9%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 26.1% 24.4–28.0% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.3–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.4% 0.7–2.8%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.4% 0.7–2.8%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 21 20–22 20–23 20–23 19–24
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Vox (PfE) 0 13 12–14 12–14 11–14 11–15
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.8%  
20 17% 99.0%  
21 37% 82% Median
22 39% 45%  
23 6% 7%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.6% 100%  
16 14% 99.4%  
17 42% 86% Median
18 6% 44%  
19 35% 37%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 3% 99.8%  
12 37% 97%  
13 41% 60% Median
14 18% 18%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 14% 99.9%  
3 85% 86% Median
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 93% 93% Median
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 42% 100%  
2 53% 58% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.8% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 44% 45%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 94% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 21 0% 20–22 20–23 20–23 19–24
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Vox (PfE) 0 13 0% 12–14 12–14 11–14 11–15

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.8%  
20 17% 99.0%  
21 37% 82% Median
22 39% 45%  
23 6% 7%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.6% 100%  
16 14% 99.4%  
17 42% 86% Median
18 6% 44%  
19 35% 37%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 3% 99.8%  
12 37% 97%  
13 41% 60% Median
14 18% 18%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations