Opinion Poll by GAD3 for Vocento, 6–8 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.4% | 29.6–33.2% | 29.1–33.8% | 28.7–34.2% | 27.8–35.1% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 26.4% | 24.7–28.2% | 24.2–28.7% | 23.8–29.1% | 23.0–29.9% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.2% | 16.8–19.8% | 16.4–20.2% | 16.0–20.6% | 15.3–21.4% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.3% | 3.1–5.5% | 2.8–6.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.3–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.3% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.6–4.1% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.8% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.6% | 1.1–2.7% | 1.0–3.1% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.8–2.7% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.8–2.7% |
| Adelante Andalucía (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 17–18 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Adelante Andalucía (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 6% | 97% | |
| 21 | 10% | 91% | |
| 22 | 47% | 81% | Median |
| 23 | 34% | 35% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 54% | 96% | Median |
| 18 | 34% | 42% | |
| 19 | 6% | 8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 25% | 98% | |
| 12 | 28% | 72% | Median |
| 13 | 5% | 44% | |
| 14 | 39% | 39% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 35% | 39% | |
| 4 | 3% | 4% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 39% | 39% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 14% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 56% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 44% | 44% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 69% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 31% | 31% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Adelante Andalucía (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Adelante Andalucía (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 0% | 17–18 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| Adelante Andalucía () – Unión del Pueblo Navarro () | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 6% | 97% | |
| 21 | 10% | 91% | |
| 22 | 47% | 81% | Median |
| 23 | 34% | 35% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 54% | 96% | Median |
| 18 | 34% | 42% | |
| 19 | 6% | 8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 25% | 98% | |
| 12 | 28% | 72% | Median |
| 13 | 5% | 44% | |
| 14 | 39% | 39% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Adelante Andalucía () – Unión del Pueblo Navarro ()
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): Vocento
- Fieldwork period: 6–8 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1077
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.94%