Opinion Poll by Hamalgama Métrica for Vozpópuli, 5–8 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 33.4% 31.1–35.9% 30.5–36.6% 29.9–37.2% 28.8–38.4%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 25.3% 23.2–27.6% 22.6–28.3% 22.1–28.8% 21.1–29.9%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 19.5% 17.6–21.7% 17.1–22.3% 16.6–22.8% 15.8–23.8%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.7% 2.1–5.0% 1.8–5.5%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.8% 1.7–5.3%
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.3% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.8% 1.2–4.4%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 1.9% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.1–3.3% 0.9–3.7%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.9% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.1–3.3% 0.9–3.7%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.7% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.1% 0.8–3.5%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.3% 0.6–2.5% 0.5–2.9%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.0% 0.3–2.4%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8% 0.2–2.2%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4% 0.1–1.7%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7% 0.0–0.9% 0.0–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 21–24 20–24 20–24 20–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 16–18 16–18 16–19 15–20
Vox (PfE) 0 12 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–15
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 6% 99.8%  
21 18% 94%  
22 8% 76%  
23 21% 68% Median
24 46% 47%  
25 0.4% 0.8%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.8%  
16 16% 98%  
17 65% 82% Median
18 14% 17%  
19 0.8% 3%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.5% 100%  
11 2% 99.5%  
12 51% 98% Median
13 4% 47%  
14 39% 43%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 66% 88% Median
3 21% 21%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 77% 99.5% Median
2 15% 23%  
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 94% 98% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 70% 70% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 35% 38%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 60% 60% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 0% 21–24 20–24 20–24 20–25
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–19 15–20
Vox (PfE) 0 12 0% 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–15

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 100%  
20 6% 99.8%  
21 18% 94%  
22 8% 76%  
23 21% 68% Median
24 46% 47%  
25 0.4% 0.8%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.8%  
16 16% 98%  
17 65% 82% Median
18 14% 17%  
19 0.8% 3%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.5% 100%  
11 2% 99.5%  
12 51% 98% Median
13 4% 47%  
14 39% 43%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations