Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 5–8 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.8% | 31.0–34.7% | 30.5–35.2% | 30.1–35.7% | 29.3–36.5% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.3–29.8% | 25.8–30.3% | 25.4–30.7% | 24.6–31.6% |
| Vox (PfE) | 0.0% | 18.8% | 17.4–20.4% | 17.0–20.9% | 16.6–21.2% | 15.9–22.0% |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.4–5.3% |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.3–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.7–4.3% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.0–3.1% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.8–2.8% |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Podemos (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Junts per Catalunya (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 14% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 41% | 85% | Median |
| 22 | 29% | 44% | |
| 23 | 12% | 15% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 17 | 9% | 99.1% | |
| 18 | 43% | 90% | Median |
| 19 | 33% | 47% | |
| 20 | 13% | 14% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 15% | 98.5% | |
| 12 | 38% | 84% | Median |
| 13 | 41% | 46% | |
| 14 | 4% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 45% | 96% | |
| 3 | 51% | 52% | Median |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Podemos (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 28% | 100% | |
| 2 | 70% | 72% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 35% | 36% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 90% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 30% | 30% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) | 0 | 18 | 0% | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| Vox (PfE) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 14% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 41% | 85% | Median |
| 22 | 29% | 44% | |
| 23 | 12% | 15% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 17 | 9% | 99.1% | |
| 18 | 43% | 90% | Median |
| 19 | 33% | 47% | |
| 20 | 13% | 14% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vox (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 15% | 98.5% | |
| 12 | 38% | 84% | Median |
| 13 | 41% | 46% | |
| 14 | 4% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Invymark
- Commissioner(s): laSexta
- Fieldwork period: 5–8 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.99%