Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 10–11 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 32.6% 30.7–34.6% 30.2–35.1% 29.8–35.6% 28.9–36.5%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 26.2% 24.5–28.0% 24.0–28.6% 23.6–29.0% 22.8–29.9%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 18.8% 17.3–20.5% 16.9–20.9% 16.5–21.4% 15.8–22.2%
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Adelante Andalucía (*) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 23–24 23–24 22–24 21–24
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 17 17 17 16–20
Vox (PfE) 0 13 13 13 12–13 11–14
Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Podemos (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Junts per Catalunya (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Adelante Andalucía (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.6%  
22 2% 98%  
23 66% 96% Median
24 30% 30%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9%  
17 97% 99.5% Median
18 0.8% 2%  
19 0.6% 1.2%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.8%  
12 3% 98.8%  
13 94% 96% Median
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimiento Sumar–Izquierda Unida (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 28% 100%  
2 61% 72% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Podemos (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Podemos (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 38% 100%  
2 62% 62% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Més–Compromís–Más País–Chunta (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 69% 99.9% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Se Acabó La Fiesta (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 96% 98% Median
2 1.5% 1.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 99.1% 99.5% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 69% 69% Median
2 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 29% 29%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Adelante Andalucía (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Adelante Andalucía (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 23 0% 23–24 23–24 22–24 21–24
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 17 0% 17 17 17 16–20
Vox (PfE) 0 13 0% 13 13 12–13 11–14
Adelante Andalucía () – Unión del Pueblo Navarro () 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.6%  
22 2% 98%  
23 66% 96% Median
24 30% 30%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9%  
17 97% 99.5% Median
18 0.8% 2%  
19 0.6% 1.2%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.8%  
12 3% 98.8%  
13 94% 96% Median
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Adelante Andalucía () – Unión del Pueblo Navarro ()

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations