Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 4–14 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 29.3% 28.1–30.6% 27.7–30.9% 27.4–31.3% 26.9–31.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 22.0% 20.9–23.2% 20.6–23.5% 20.3–23.8% 19.8–24.4%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 15.0–18.1% 14.5–18.6%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.2% 9.4–11.1% 9.2–11.3% 9.0–11.6% 8.6–12.0%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.4% 6.7–8.2% 6.5–8.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.1% 3.6–4.7% 3.5–4.9% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.7% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.3% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.7%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.9% 1.6–2.3% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 110 104–116 103–118 102–119 98–121
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 82 78–87 76–88 75–89 73–92
Sverigedemokraterna 49 61 58–66 57–68 56–69 54–71
Centerpartiet 22 38 34–42 34–42 33–44 32–45
Vänsterpartiet 21 28 25–31 24–32 24–33 23–34
Liberalerna 19 19 17–21 16–22 16–23 0–24
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 15 0–17 0–18 0–18 0–20
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.5% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.5%  
100 0.3% 99.3%  
101 0.5% 99.0%  
102 1.3% 98.5%  
103 6% 97%  
104 3% 91%  
105 3% 88%  
106 9% 84%  
107 7% 76%  
108 10% 69%  
109 9% 59%  
110 16% 51% Median
111 4% 35%  
112 8% 30%  
113 4% 23% Last Result
114 4% 19%  
115 3% 15%  
116 3% 12%  
117 4% 9%  
118 1.4% 6%  
119 3% 5%  
120 1.0% 2%  
121 0.6% 1.0%  
122 0.1% 0.4%  
123 0.1% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.6%  
74 0.9% 99.5%  
75 1.3% 98.6%  
76 4% 97%  
77 3% 93%  
78 2% 90%  
79 5% 88%  
80 25% 83%  
81 3% 58%  
82 7% 55% Median
83 8% 47%  
84 13% 40% Last Result
85 5% 26%  
86 5% 21%  
87 6% 16%  
88 5% 9%  
89 2% 5%  
90 0.4% 2%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 1.2% 1.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.8% 99.8%  
55 1.0% 99.1%  
56 1.4% 98%  
57 7% 97%  
58 6% 90%  
59 8% 84%  
60 20% 77%  
61 15% 57% Median
62 6% 42%  
63 11% 35%  
64 8% 25%  
65 5% 17%  
66 6% 12%  
67 1.3% 7%  
68 2% 5%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.7% 1.3%  
71 0.2% 0.6%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.3%  
34 8% 97%  
35 16% 89%  
36 5% 73%  
37 9% 68%  
38 13% 58% Median
39 14% 45%  
40 12% 32%  
41 6% 19%  
42 9% 13%  
43 2% 4%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.4% 0.8%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100% Last Result
22 0.2% 99.8%  
23 1.3% 99.6%  
24 6% 98%  
25 8% 93%  
26 10% 85%  
27 14% 75%  
28 20% 61% Median
29 24% 41%  
30 6% 17%  
31 4% 11%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.5% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 0% 99.2%  
4 0% 99.2%  
5 0% 99.2%  
6 0% 99.2%  
7 0% 99.2%  
8 0% 99.2%  
9 0% 99.2%  
10 0% 99.2%  
11 0% 99.2%  
12 0% 99.2%  
13 0% 99.2%  
14 0% 99.2%  
15 1.0% 99.2%  
16 4% 98%  
17 21% 94%  
18 14% 73%  
19 29% 59% Last Result, Median
20 13% 31%  
21 12% 18%  
22 4% 6%  
23 1.1% 3%  
24 1.2% 1.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100%  
1 0% 67%  
2 0% 67%  
3 0% 67%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 0% 67%  
7 0% 67%  
8 0% 67%  
9 0% 67%  
10 0% 67%  
11 0% 67%  
12 0% 67%  
13 0% 67%  
14 0% 67%  
15 17% 67% Median
16 31% 49%  
17 13% 19%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 228 100% 223–239 222–241 221–243 217–247
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 191 100% 185–200 183–203 182–204 179–207
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 150 0% 139–155 135–156 135–157 133–161
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 150 0% 139–155 135–156 135–157 133–161
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 149 144 0% 138–151 137–153 135–155 133–158
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 133 144 0% 138–151 137–153 135–155 133–158
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 138 0% 134–147 132–148 130–149 127–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 138 0% 134–147 132–148 130–149 127–152
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 137 0% 131–146 130–147 129–148 126–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 122 0% 111–127 107–129 106–130 105–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 120 0% 115–127 114–128 113–129 110–133
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 120 0% 115–127 114–128 113–129 110–133

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
215 0.1% 100%  
216 0.3% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.6%  
218 0.2% 99.5%  
219 0.7% 99.2% Last Result
220 0.9% 98.6%  
221 2% 98%  
222 4% 96%  
223 4% 92%  
224 3% 89%  
225 17% 86%  
226 7% 69%  
227 9% 62%  
228 7% 53%  
229 4% 47%  
230 1.5% 43% Median
231 4% 42%  
232 3% 37%  
233 4% 35%  
234 5% 30%  
235 3% 25%  
236 2% 22%  
237 3% 20%  
238 4% 18%  
239 4% 13%  
240 4% 9%  
241 0.6% 6%  
242 0.2% 5%  
243 3% 5%  
244 0.9% 2%  
245 0.5% 1.3%  
246 0.3% 0.8%  
247 0.2% 0.5%  
248 0% 0.3%  
249 0% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0.1% 0.2%  
254 0.1% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0.1% 100%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.4% 99.8%  
180 0.2% 99.4%  
181 0.4% 99.2%  
182 3% 98.8%  
183 2% 96%  
184 2% 94%  
185 5% 92%  
186 3% 87%  
187 3% 83%  
188 4% 80%  
189 6% 76%  
190 16% 70%  
191 5% 53%  
192 12% 48% Median
193 3% 36%  
194 6% 33%  
195 2% 27%  
196 3% 25%  
197 2% 22% Last Result
198 1.2% 19%  
199 4% 18%  
200 5% 14%  
201 2% 9%  
202 0.9% 8%  
203 3% 7%  
204 1.2% 3%  
205 0.8% 2%  
206 0.3% 2%  
207 0.8% 1.3%  
208 0.2% 0.5%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.2%  
212 0.1% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0.1% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 1.3% 99.8%  
134 0.5% 98%  
135 3% 98%  
136 0.6% 95%  
137 1.5% 94%  
138 1.0% 93%  
139 2% 92%  
140 2% 90%  
141 3% 87%  
142 2% 84%  
143 3% 82%  
144 2% 79%  
145 5% 77%  
146 5% 72%  
147 5% 67%  
148 6% 62%  
149 5% 56%  
150 4% 50%  
151 9% 46%  
152 7% 37%  
153 9% 30% Median
154 4% 21%  
155 12% 17%  
156 1.2% 5%  
157 2% 4%  
158 0.9% 2%  
159 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
160 0.3% 0.9%  
161 0.3% 0.6%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 1.3% 99.8%  
134 0.5% 98%  
135 3% 98%  
136 0.6% 95%  
137 1.5% 94%  
138 1.0% 93%  
139 2% 92%  
140 2% 90%  
141 3% 87%  
142 2% 84%  
143 3% 82%  
144 2% 79%  
145 5% 77%  
146 5% 72%  
147 5% 67%  
148 6% 62%  
149 5% 56%  
150 4% 50%  
151 9% 46%  
152 7% 37%  
153 9% 30% Median
154 4% 21%  
155 12% 17%  
156 1.2% 5%  
157 2% 4%  
158 0.9% 2%  
159 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
160 0.3% 0.9%  
161 0.3% 0.6%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.2% 99.7%  
133 0.7% 99.6%  
134 0.6% 98.9%  
135 0.9% 98%  
136 1.1% 97%  
137 4% 96%  
138 5% 92%  
139 3% 87%  
140 18% 84%  
141 5% 66%  
142 4% 62%  
143 7% 57% Median
144 4% 50%  
145 12% 47%  
146 10% 34%  
147 4% 24%  
148 3% 21%  
149 3% 17% Last Result
150 2% 14%  
151 3% 12%  
152 2% 9%  
153 3% 7%  
154 1.1% 4%  
155 2% 3%  
156 0.3% 1.1%  
157 0.1% 0.7%  
158 0.2% 0.6%  
159 0.2% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.2% 99.7%  
133 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
134 0.6% 98.9%  
135 0.9% 98%  
136 1.1% 97%  
137 4% 96%  
138 5% 92%  
139 3% 87%  
140 18% 84%  
141 5% 66%  
142 4% 61%  
143 7% 57% Median
144 4% 50%  
145 12% 47%  
146 10% 34%  
147 4% 24%  
148 3% 21%  
149 3% 17%  
150 2% 14%  
151 3% 12%  
152 2% 9%  
153 3% 7%  
154 1.1% 4%  
155 2% 3%  
156 0.3% 1.1%  
157 0.1% 0.7%  
158 0.2% 0.6%  
159 0.2% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.7% 99.6%  
128 0.4% 98.9%  
129 0.7% 98.5%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 1.1% 97%  
132 2% 96%  
133 3% 95%  
134 16% 92%  
135 6% 76%  
136 5% 70%  
137 8% 65%  
138 7% 57%  
139 6% 50% Median
140 6% 44%  
141 4% 37% Last Result
142 5% 33%  
143 8% 28%  
144 3% 20%  
145 3% 17%  
146 4% 14%  
147 3% 10%  
148 4% 7%  
149 1.4% 3%  
150 0.3% 1.4%  
151 0.5% 1.1%  
152 0.3% 0.6%  
153 0.2% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.7% 99.6%  
128 0.4% 98.9%  
129 0.7% 98.5%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 1.1% 97%  
132 2% 96%  
133 3% 95%  
134 16% 92%  
135 6% 75%  
136 5% 70%  
137 8% 65%  
138 7% 57%  
139 6% 50% Median
140 6% 44%  
141 4% 37%  
142 5% 33%  
143 8% 28%  
144 3% 20%  
145 3% 17%  
146 4% 14%  
147 3% 10%  
148 4% 7%  
149 1.4% 3%  
150 0.3% 1.4%  
151 0.5% 1.1%  
152 0.3% 0.6%  
153 0.2% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.5% 99.8%  
127 1.0% 99.3%  
128 0.3% 98%  
129 1.1% 98%  
130 4% 97%  
131 3% 92%  
132 4% 89%  
133 7% 86%  
134 4% 79% Last Result
135 13% 74%  
136 3% 61%  
137 12% 58%  
138 5% 47% Median
139 12% 41%  
140 6% 29%  
141 4% 23%  
142 3% 20%  
143 3% 17%  
144 1.3% 14%  
145 2% 13%  
146 3% 11%  
147 4% 8%  
148 3% 4%  
149 0.2% 1.4%  
150 0.2% 1.1%  
151 0.7% 1.0%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.4% 99.9%  
105 0.3% 99.5%  
106 2% 99.3%  
107 3% 97%  
108 1.0% 95%  
109 0.8% 93%  
110 2% 93%  
111 3% 91%  
112 3% 88%  
113 3% 85%  
114 2% 82%  
115 2% 80%  
116 3% 78%  
117 4% 75%  
118 5% 72%  
119 5% 66%  
120 4% 62%  
121 3% 58%  
122 7% 55%  
123 9% 48%  
124 6% 40%  
125 6% 33% Median
126 13% 27%  
127 7% 14%  
128 2% 8%  
129 2% 5%  
130 1.3% 3%  
131 0.8% 2%  
132 0.5% 0.9%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1% Last Result
139 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 1.2% 99.7%  
111 0.6% 98.5%  
112 0.3% 98%  
113 1.4% 98%  
114 2% 96%  
115 11% 94%  
116 8% 82%  
117 2% 74%  
118 12% 72%  
119 8% 60%  
120 4% 52% Median
121 9% 48%  
122 6% 39% Last Result
123 7% 33%  
124 5% 27%  
125 4% 21%  
126 5% 17%  
127 4% 11%  
128 3% 7%  
129 2% 4%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.1%  
132 0.2% 0.8%  
133 0.3% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.2% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0.2% 99.9%  
110 1.2% 99.7%  
111 0.6% 98.5%  
112 0.3% 98%  
113 1.4% 98%  
114 2% 96%  
115 11% 94%  
116 8% 82%  
117 2% 74%  
118 12% 72%  
119 8% 60%  
120 4% 52% Median
121 9% 48%  
122 6% 39%  
123 7% 33%  
124 5% 26%  
125 4% 21%  
126 5% 17%  
127 4% 11%  
128 3% 7%  
129 2% 4%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.1%  
132 0.2% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.2% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations