Moderata samlingspartiet
Voting Intentions
Last result: 23.3% (General Election of 14 September 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 17.7% | 16.3–19.9% | 15.9–20.6% | 15.5–21.1% | 14.8–22.2% |
| 2–7 September 2018 | SKOP | 17.6% | 16.7–18.6% | 16.4–18.9% | 16.2–19.2% | 15.7–19.7% |
| 3–7 September 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
19.6% | 18.4–20.9% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.7–21.6% | 17.2–22.2% |
| 5–6 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
17.0% | 16.2–17.8% | 15.9–18.0% | 15.7–18.2% | 15.4–18.7% |
| 30 August–6 September 2018 | SKOP | 17.3% | 16.4–18.2% | 16.2–18.5% | 16.0–18.7% | 15.6–19.2% |
| 4–6 September 2018 | Novus SVT |
17.7% | 16.6–18.9% | 16.3–19.2% | 16.0–19.5% | 15.5–20.1% |
| 1–6 September 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
17.9% | 16.7–19.1% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.1–19.8% | 15.6–20.4% |
| 3–5 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
17.2% | 16.4–18.1% | 16.2–18.3% | 16.0–18.5% | 15.6–18.9% |
| 29 August–5 September 2018 | SKOP | 18.2% | 17.2–19.2% | 17.0–19.5% | 16.8–19.7% | 16.3–20.2% |
| 2–5 September 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
17.3% | 16.2–18.5% | 15.9–18.8% | 15.6–19.1% | 15.1–19.6% |
| 30 August–4 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
17.1% | 16.3–18.1% | 16.0–18.3% | 15.8–18.6% | 15.4–19.0% |
| 28 August–4 September 2018 | SKOP | 17.1% | 16.2–18.1% | 15.9–18.4% | 15.7–18.6% | 15.3–19.1% |
| 30 August–4 September 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
17.8% | 16.6–19.1% | 16.3–19.4% | 16.0–19.8% | 15.5–20.4% |
| 29 August–3 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
17.0% | 16.1–17.9% | 15.9–18.2% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.3–18.9% |
| 27 August–3 September 2018 | SKOP | 16.3% | 15.2–17.5% | 14.9–17.8% | 14.6–18.1% | 14.1–18.7% |
| 27 August–3 September 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
19.2% | 18.2–20.2% | 17.9–20.5% | 17.7–20.8% | 17.2–21.3% |
| 26 August–2 September 2018 | SKOP | 16.9% | 15.9–18.0% | 15.6–18.3% | 15.3–18.6% | 14.8–19.2% |
| 28 August–2 September 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
16.9% | 15.8–18.1% | 15.5–18.4% | 15.3–18.7% | 14.8–19.3% |
| 30 August–1 September 2018 | YouGov Metro |
16.5% | 15.3–17.8% | 14.9–18.2% | 14.6–18.6% | 14.1–19.2% |
| 25–31 August 2018 | SKOP | 17.0% | 16.0–18.1% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.4–18.7% | 14.9–19.3% |
| 28–30 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
16.7% | 15.8–17.6% | 15.6–17.8% | 15.4–18.1% | 15.0–18.5% |
| 24–30 August 2018 | SKOP | 16.9% | 15.8–18.0% | 15.5–18.4% | 15.3–18.6% | 14.8–19.2% |
| 25–30 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
19.5% | 18.5–20.6% | 18.2–20.9% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.5–21.7% |
| 23–30 August 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
17.1% | 16.0–18.4% | 15.6–18.7% | 15.3–19.0% | 14.8–19.6% |
| 27–29 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
17.7% | 16.8–18.6% | 16.5–18.9% | 16.3–19.1% | 15.9–19.6% |
| 22–29 August 2018 | SKOP | 15.7% | 14.8–16.6% | 14.6–16.9% | 14.4–17.1% | 14.0–17.5% |
| 25–28 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
17.6% | 16.7–18.5% | 16.5–18.8% | 16.2–19.0% | 15.8–19.5% |
| 21–28 August 2018 | SKOP | 16.2% | 15.2–17.2% | 15.0–17.5% | 14.7–17.8% | 14.3–18.3% |
| 22–28 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
19.4% | 18.2–20.7% | 17.9–21.1% | 17.6–21.4% | 17.0–22.1% |
| 22–27 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
18.3% | 17.4–19.3% | 17.1–19.6% | 16.9–19.8% | 16.4–20.3% |
| 20–27 August 2018 | SKOP | 16.5% | 15.6–17.4% | 15.4–17.7% | 15.2–17.9% | 14.8–18.4% |
| 21–26 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
17.9% | 17.0–18.9% | 16.7–19.2% | 16.5–19.4% | 16.0–19.9% |
| 22–26 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
20.3% | 19.4–21.2% | 19.1–21.5% | 18.9–21.7% | 18.5–22.2% |
| 16–24 August 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
17.1% | 16.0–18.3% | 15.7–18.6% | 15.5–18.9% | 15.0–19.5% |
| 20–23 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
17.6% | 16.9–18.4% | 16.6–18.6% | 16.5–18.8% | 16.1–19.2% |
| 16–22 August 2018 | SKOP | 17.1% | 16.1–18.2% | 15.8–18.5% | 15.5–18.8% | 15.1–19.3% |
| 13–21 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
19.3% | 18.1–20.6% | 17.8–21.0% | 17.5–21.3% | 16.9–21.9% |
| 17–20 August 2018 | YouGov Metro |
15.8% | 14.6–17.1% | 14.3–17.4% | 14.0–17.7% | 13.5–18.3% |
| 13–16 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
19.4% | 18.5–20.3% | 18.3–20.5% | 18.1–20.7% | 17.7–21.2% |
| 7–16 August 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
17.7% | 16.6–18.9% | 16.3–19.2% | 16.0–19.5% | 15.5–20.1% |
| 10–16 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
20.9% | 19.8–22.1% | 19.4–22.4% | 19.2–22.7% | 18.7–23.3% |
| 8–15 August 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
19.7% | 18.5–21.0% | 18.2–21.4% | 17.8–21.7% | 17.3–22.4% |
| 9–14 August 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
19.5% | 17.8–21.5% | 17.3–22.0% | 16.9–22.5% | 16.1–23.4% |
| 23 July–12 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
17.9% | 17.2–18.7% | 17.0–18.9% | 16.8–19.1% | 16.4–19.5% |
| 6–9 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
20.3% | 19.3–21.4% | 19.0–21.7% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.2–22.6% |
| 25 July–2 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
20.4% | 19.4–21.6% | 19.1–21.9% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.3–22.7% |
| 27 July–1 August 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
19.1% | 17.4–21.1% | 16.9–21.6% | 16.5–22.1% | 15.7–23.1% |
| 25 June–22 July 2018 | Novus SVT |
19.6% | 18.9–20.3% | 18.7–20.6% | 18.5–20.7% | 18.2–21.1% |
| 20 June–21 July 2018 | SKOP | 19.2% | 17.8–20.7% | 17.4–21.2% | 17.1–21.6% | 16.4–22.3% |
| 13–15 July 2018 | YouGov Metro |
15.9% | 14.6–17.3% | 14.3–17.7% | 13.9–18.1% | 13.4–18.7% |
| 28 June–3 July 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
18.0% | 16.3–20.0% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.4–21.0% | 14.6–21.9% |
| 25 June–3 July 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
19.9% | 18.6–21.2% | 18.3–21.6% | 18.0–21.9% | 17.4–22.5% |
| 20–26 June 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
20.6% | 19.5–21.8% | 19.2–22.1% | 18.9–22.4% | 18.4–23.0% |
| 7–24 June 2018 | Novus SVT |
19.8% | 18.8–20.8% | 18.5–21.1% | 18.3–21.4% | 17.9–21.9% |
| 15–18 June 2018 | YouGov Metro |
17.2% | 16.0–18.5% | 15.7–18.9% | 15.4–19.2% | 14.9–19.9% |
| 8 May–18 June 2018 | SKOP | 22.9% | 21.4–24.5% | 21.0–24.9% | 20.6–25.3% | 19.9–26.1% |
| 7–18 June 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
19.0% | 17.8–20.2% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.3–20.9% | 16.7–21.5% |
| 4–14 June 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
20.7% | 19.6–21.8% | 19.3–22.2% | 19.0–22.5% | 18.5–23.0% |
| 14 May–6 June 2018 | Novus SVT |
21.1% | 20.3–21.9% | 20.1–22.1% | 20.0–22.3% | 19.6–22.7% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
19.9% | 18.7–21.2% | 18.3–21.6% | 18.0–21.9% | 17.4–22.6% |
| 1–5 June 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
17.1% | 15.7–18.7% | 15.3–19.2% | 14.9–19.6% | 14.3–20.4% |
| 21–30 May 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
22.0% | 20.9–23.2% | 20.5–23.5% | 20.3–23.8% | 19.7–24.4% |
| 27 April–29 May 2018 | SCB | 22.6% | 21.8–23.4% | 21.6–23.6% | 21.4–23.8% | 21.0–24.2% |
| 10–21 May 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
21.8% | 20.6–23.1% | 20.2–23.4% | 19.9–23.7% | 19.4–24.4% |
| 7–17 May 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
23.6% | 23.0–24.2% | 22.8–24.4% | 22.7–24.5% | 22.4–24.8% |
| 11–14 May 2018 | YouGov Metro |
18.3% | 17.1–19.6% | 16.8–20.0% | 16.4–20.3% | 15.9–21.0% |
| 16 April–13 May 2018 | Novus SVT |
20.6% | 19.9–21.3% | 19.7–21.5% | 19.5–21.7% | 19.2–22.1% |
| 4–7 May 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
20.4% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.4–22.6% | 18.0–23.0% | 17.3–23.8% |
| 1–7 May 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
22.4% | 21.3–23.6% | 21.0–23.9% | 20.7–24.2% | 20.2–24.8% |
| 24 April–2 May 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
22.3% | 21.0–23.7% | 20.6–24.1% | 20.3–24.4% | 19.7–25.1% |
| 12–23 April 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
21.0% | 19.7–22.4% | 19.3–22.8% | 19.0–23.1% | 18.4–23.8% |
| 13–16 April 2018 | YouGov Metro |
19.9% | 18.6–21.2% | 18.3–21.6% | 18.0–21.9% | 17.4–22.6% |
| 19 March–15 April 2018 | Novus SVT |
22.1% | 21.4–22.9% | 21.1–23.1% | 21.0–23.3% | 20.6–23.7% |
| 16 March–13 April 2018 | SKOP | 25.1% | 23.6–26.7% | 23.2–27.1% | 22.9–27.5% | 22.2–28.3% |
| 2–12 April 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
23.0% | 22.4–23.5% | 22.2–23.7% | 22.1–23.8% | 21.8–24.1% |
| 5–10 April 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
20.1% | 18.6–21.7% | 18.2–22.1% | 17.8–22.5% | 17.1–23.3% |
| 3–9 April 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
23.3% | 22.2–24.5% | 21.8–24.9% | 21.6–25.2% | 21.0–25.8% |
| 27 March–4 April 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
22.2% | 20.9–23.6% | 20.5–24.0% | 20.2–24.3% | 19.6–25.0% |
| 16–19 March 2018 | YouGov Metro |
18.8% | 17.3–20.3% | 16.9–20.8% | 16.6–21.2% | 15.9–21.9% |
| 8–19 March 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
20.8% | 19.5–22.2% | 19.2–22.6% | 18.9–22.9% | 18.3–23.6% |
| 19 February–18 March 2018 | Novus SVT |
22.6% | 21.9–23.3% | 21.7–23.5% | 21.5–23.7% | 21.2–24.1% |
| 5–15 March 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
23.1% | 22.5–23.7% | 22.4–23.8% | 22.3–24.0% | 22.0–24.2% |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
19.5% | 17.7–21.4% | 17.2–22.0% | 16.8–22.5% | 16.0–23.4% |
| 27 February–7 March 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
21.8% | 20.5–23.2% | 20.1–23.5% | 19.8–23.9% | 19.3–24.5% |
| 1–5 March 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
24.5% | 23.4–25.7% | 23.0–26.0% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.2–26.9% |
| 16–19 February 2018 | YouGov Metro |
20.5% | 19.0–22.1% | 18.6–22.5% | 18.3–22.9% | 17.6–23.7% |
| 8–19 February 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
21.0% | 19.7–22.5% | 19.3–22.9% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.3–23.9% |
| 22 January–18 February 2018 | Novus SVT |
23.7% | 22.9–24.5% | 22.7–24.7% | 22.5–24.9% | 22.2–25.3% |
| 5–15 February 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
23.7% | 23.2–24.3% | 23.0–24.5% | 22.9–24.6% | 22.6–24.9% |
| 9–14 February 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
21.0% | 19.1–23.1% | 18.6–23.7% | 18.1–24.2% | 17.2–25.2% |
| 30 January–6 February 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
23.9% | 22.6–25.3% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.9–26.0% | 21.3–26.7% |
| 30 January–5 February 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
24.6% | 23.4–25.8% | 23.1–26.1% | 22.8–26.4% | 22.2–27.0% |
| 11 January–2 February 2018 | SKOP | 24.9% | 23.5–26.5% | 23.1–26.9% | 22.7–27.3% | 22.0–28.1% |
| 2–22 January 2018 | Novus SVT |
23.8% | 22.9–24.7% | 22.7–24.9% | 22.5–25.1% | 22.1–25.6% |
| 10–21 January 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
25.0% | 23.7–26.4% | 23.3–26.8% | 23.0–27.2% | 22.3–27.8% |
| 8–18 January 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
24.4% | 23.2–25.6% | 22.9–25.9% | 22.6–26.2% | 22.1–26.8% |
| 12–16 January 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
19.9% | 18.5–21.4% | 18.1–21.9% | 17.7–22.3% | 17.1–23.0% |
| 12–15 January 2018 | YouGov Metro |
20.9% | 19.5–22.5% | 19.1–23.0% | 18.7–23.4% | 18.0–24.1% |
| 2–9 January 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
22.6% | 21.3–24.0% | 20.9–24.4% | 20.6–24.7% | 20.0–25.4% |
| 3–8 January 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
23.7% | 22.6–24.9% | 22.3–25.2% | 22.0–25.5% | 21.5–26.1% |
| 27 November–21 December 2017 | Novus SVT |
21.3% | 20.5–22.2% | 20.3–22.4% | 20.1–22.6% | 19.7–23.0% |
| 15–18 December 2017 | YouGov Metro |
22.7% | 21.3–24.1% | 21.0–24.5% | 20.6–24.9% | 20.0–25.5% |
| 4–14 December 2017 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
22.0% | 20.9–23.2% | 20.6–23.5% | 20.3–23.8% | 19.8–24.4% |
| 6–14 December 2017 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
23.0% | 21.8–24.4% | 21.4–24.7% | 21.1–25.1% | 20.5–25.7% |
| 1–6 December 2017 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
20.2% | 18.5–22.0% | 18.0–22.5% | 17.6–23.0% | 16.9–23.9% |
| 28 November–5 December 2017 | Demoskop Expressen |
20.9% | 19.6–22.3% | 19.3–22.6% | 19.0–23.0% | 18.4–23.6% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Moderata samlingspartiet.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 13% | 97% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 30% | 85% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 27% | 55% | Median |
| 18.5–19.5% | 15% | 29% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 9% | 14% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 84 seats (General Election of 14 September 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 63 | 59–73 | 57–76 | 56–78 | 53–85 |
| 2–7 September 2018 | SKOP | 63 | 60–66 | 59–66 | 58–68 | 56–70 |
| 3–7 September 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
70 | 65–76 | 64–77 | 63–78 | 62–79 |
| 5–6 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
61 | 58–64 | 57–65 | 57–66 | 55–67 |
| 30 August–6 September 2018 | SKOP | 62 | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 |
| 4–6 September 2018 | Novus SVT |
63 | 60–68 | 58–68 | 57–69 | 55–72 |
| 1–6 September 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
64 | 60–68 | 59–69 | 58–71 | 56–73 |
| 3–5 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
62 | 58–65 | 57–65 | 57–66 | 56–67 |
| 29 August–5 September 2018 | SKOP | 66 | 63–70 | 61–70 | 61–72 | 59–73 |
| 2–5 September 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
62 | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–69 | 54–71 |
| 30 August–4 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
61 | 58–64 | 57–66 | 57–66 | 55–68 |
| 28 August–4 September 2018 | SKOP | 62 | 58–65 | 57–66 | 56–67 | 56–69 |
| 30 August–4 September 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
64 | 60–69 | 58–70 | 57–71 | 55–73 |
| 29 August–3 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
61 | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–66 | 55–68 |
| 27 August–3 September 2018 | SKOP | 59 | 55–63 | 54–64 | 52–65 | 52–68 |
| 27 August–3 September 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
69 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–75 | 61–77 |
| 26 August–2 September 2018 | SKOP | 61 | 57–65 | 56–66 | 55–67 | 53–69 |
| 28 August–2 September 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
61 | 57–64 | 56–66 | 55–67 | 53–69 |
| 30 August–1 September 2018 | YouGov Metro |
60 | 55–64 | 54–66 | 52–67 | 50–70 |
| 25–31 August 2018 | SKOP | 61 | 57–64 | 56–66 | 55–67 | 54–69 |
| 28–30 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
60 | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 | 54–67 |
| 24–30 August 2018 | SKOP | 60 | 57–64 | 56–65 | 55–66 | 53–68 |
| 25–30 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
71 | 66–74 | 66–75 | 65–76 | 63–78 |
| 23–30 August 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
61 | 56–66 | 56–67 | 55–69 | 53–71 |
| 27–29 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
64 | 60–67 | 59–68 | 58–68 | 57–70 |
| 22–29 August 2018 | SKOP | 56 | 52–59 | 52–60 | 51–60 | 50–63 |
| 25–28 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
63 | 60–65 | 59–66 | 58–67 | 56–70 |
| 21–28 August 2018 | SKOP | 59 | 55–62 | 54–63 | 53–63 | 52–65 |
| 22–28 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
69 | 65–74 | 64–76 | 63–77 | 61–79 |
| 22–27 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
65 | 62–69 | 61–70 | 60–70 | 59–72 |
| 20–27 August 2018 | SKOP | 59 | 56–62 | 56–63 | 54–64 | 53–66 |
| 21–26 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
64 | 60–67 | 59–68 | 59–69 | 57–71 |
| 22–26 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
73 | 70–76 | 69–78 | 68–78 | 67–80 |
| 16–24 August 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
62 | 57–66 | 56–67 | 55–68 | 53–70 |
| 20–23 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
63 | 60–65 | 59–66 | 59–67 | 57–68 |
| 16–22 August 2018 | SKOP | 62 | 59–67 | 57–68 | 56–69 | 55–71 |
| 13–21 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
71 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 64–79 | 62–81 |
| 17–20 August 2018 | YouGov Metro |
58 | 54–63 | 52–64 | 50–65 | 49–68 |
| 13–16 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
70 | 66–73 | 65–74 | 65–76 | 63–77 |
| 7–16 August 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
64 | 60–69 | 59–71 | 58–72 | 56–74 |
| 10–16 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
75 | 71–80 | 70–81 | 69–82 | 67–85 |
| 8–15 August 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
73 | 68–79 | 66–79 | 65–80 | 63–84 |
| 9–14 August 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
73 | 66–82 | 64–84 | 61–86 | 59–91 |
| 23 July–12 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
67 | 65–69 | 63–70 | 63–71 | 62–73 |
| 6–9 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
76 | 71–80 | 70–80 | 69–82 | 67–83 |
| 25 July–2 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
74 | 70–79 | 69–80 | 68–81 | 66–84 |
| 27 July–1 August 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
72 | 65–81 | 63–83 | 62–85 | 59–89 |
| 25 June–22 July 2018 | Novus SVT |
72 | 70–75 | 69–76 | 69–77 | 67–78 |
| 20 June–21 July 2018 | SKOP | 72 | 67–79 | 65–81 | 64–83 | 61–85 |
| 13–15 July 2018 | YouGov Metro |
59 | 53–65 | 51–66 | 50–68 | 48–71 |
| 28 June–3 July 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
67 | 60–75 | 58–77 | 57–79 | 54–83 |
| 25 June–3 July 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
75 | 69–80 | 68–83 | 67–84 | 65–87 |
| 20–26 June 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
76 | 71–81 | 70–84 | 69–86 | 67–88 |
| 7–24 June 2018 | Novus SVT |
73 | 70–77 | 69–78 | 68–79 | 66–82 |
| 15–18 June 2018 | YouGov Metro |
67 | 61–72 | 60–74 | 59–75 | 56–79 |
| 8 May–18 June 2018 | SKOP | 86 | 80–93 | 78–95 | 77–97 | 74–100 |
| 7–18 June 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
74 | 68–78 | 67–80 | 66–82 | 63–85 |
| 4–14 June 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
77 | 73–82 | 72–84 | 71–85 | 69–87 |
| 14 May–6 June 2018 | Novus SVT |
78 | 76–82 | 75–83 | 74–84 | 73–86 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
74 | 69–79 | 68–82 | 66–83 | 64–85 |
| 1–5 June 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
64 | 58–70 | 56–71 | 55–73 | 53–76 |
| 21–30 May 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
82 | 76–87 | 76–88 | 74–89 | 72–93 |
| 27 April–29 May 2018 | SCB | 84 | 81–88 | 80–90 | 79–91 | 78–94 |
| 10–21 May 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
82 | 76–90 | 75–92 | 74–92 | 71–94 |
| 7–17 May 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
89 | 86–94 | 85–95 | 85–96 | 83–96 |
| 11–14 May 2018 | YouGov Metro |
71 | 65–77 | 64–79 | 63–81 | 59–83 |
| 16 April–13 May 2018 | Novus SVT |
78 | 75–81 | 74–82 | 73–83 | 71–86 |
| 4–7 May 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
79 | 72–85 | 70–89 | 68–89 | 65–94 |
| 1–7 May 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
85 | 80–91 | 79–93 | 77–95 | 74–96 |
| 24 April–2 May 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
85 | 78–88 | 77–90 | 75–92 | 73–95 |
| 12–23 April 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
81 | 75–85 | 73–87 | 71–89 | 69–92 |
| 13–16 April 2018 | YouGov Metro |
78 | 71–85 | 69–88 | 68–90 | 66–95 |
| 19 March–15 April 2018 | Novus SVT |
84 | 80–88 | 79–89 | 78–90 | 77–92 |
| 16 March–13 April 2018 | SKOP | 96 | 88–99 | 86–102 | 84–104 | 81–107 |
| 2–12 April 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
88 | 84–92 | 84–93 | 84–94 | 82–96 |
| 5–10 April 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
77 | 71–84 | 68–86 | 67–88 | 64–92 |
| 3–9 April 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
90 | 84–96 | 82–96 | 81–98 | 78–101 |
| 27 March–4 April 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
84 | 78–89 | 77–90 | 75–92 | 73–94 |
| 16–19 March 2018 | YouGov Metro |
70 | 65–78 | 61–80 | 61–81 | 59–86 |
| 8–19 March 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
80 | 73–86 | 72–87 | 72–89 | 68–91 |
| 19 February–18 March 2018 | Novus SVT |
87 | 83–90 | 82–91 | 81–91 | 79–93 |
| 5–15 March 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
89 | 85–92 | 84–92 | 84–93 | 82–95 |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
73 | 65–81 | 64–83 | 62–85 | 59–90 |
| 27 February–7 March 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
81 | 75–86 | 74–89 | 73–90 | 70–92 |
| 1–5 March 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
96 | 91–101 | 89–101 | 89–102 | 86–105 |
| 16–19 February 2018 | YouGov Metro |
80 | 76–85 | 73–87 | 71–89 | 68–95 |
| 8–19 February 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
81 | 75–86 | 74–87 | 73–89 | 69–91 |
| 22 January–18 February 2018 | Novus SVT |
87 | 84–91 | 84–92 | 83–94 | 82–96 |
| 5–15 February 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
87 | 85–89 | 85–90 | 85–91 | 84–92 |
| 9–14 February 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
79 | 72–88 | 70–91 | 68–93 | 65–97 |
| 30 January–6 February 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
89 | 84–94 | 82–96 | 80–98 | 78–101 |
| 30 January–5 February 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
94 | 89–101 | 88–104 | 87–105 | 85–108 |
| 11 January–2 February 2018 | SKOP | 94 | 89–101 | 87–102 | 86–105 | 83–107 |
| 2–22 January 2018 | Novus SVT |
89 | 85–93 | 84–94 | 83–95 | 82–98 |
| 10–21 January 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
94 | 89–101 | 87–102 | 86–103 | 83–107 |
| 8–18 January 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
92 | 87–99 | 85–100 | 84–100 | 81–102 |
| 12–16 January 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
80 | 73–86 | 71–88 | 69–89 | 66–92 |
| 12–15 January 2018 | YouGov Metro |
82 | 74–87 | 72–90 | 70–91 | 69–95 |
| 2–9 January 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
84 | 80–91 | 79–92 | 77–93 | 75–98 |
| 3–8 January 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
93 | 88–99 | 86–100 | 85–102 | 83–105 |
| 27 November–21 December 2017 | Novus SVT |
79 | 76–83 | 75–84 | 74–85 | 73–87 |
| 15–18 December 2017 | YouGov Metro |
88 | 82–93 | 79–96 | 78–98 | 75–99 |
| 4–14 December 2017 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
82 | 78–87 | 76–88 | 75–89 | 73–92 |
| 6–14 December 2017 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
89 | 83–93 | 81–95 | 80–96 | 77–99 |
| 1–6 December 2017 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
79 | 70–87 | 68–89 | 66–90 | 63–93 |
| 28 November–5 December 2017 | Demoskop Expressen |
80 | 75–85 | 73–87 | 72–88 | 70–91 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Moderata samlingspartiet.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 97% | |
| 58 | 4% | 94% | |
| 59 | 5% | 90% | |
| 60 | 7% | 85% | |
| 61 | 9% | 78% | |
| 62 | 11% | 69% | |
| 63 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 64 | 8% | 48% | |
| 65 | 6% | 41% | |
| 66 | 6% | 35% | |
| 67 | 4% | 29% | |
| 68 | 3% | 25% | |
| 69 | 4% | 22% | |
| 70 | 2% | 18% | |
| 71 | 3% | 15% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 73 | 2% | 10% | |
| 74 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |