Sverigedemokraterna

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 12.9% (General Election of 14 September 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 17.8% 16.2–24.1% 15.9–25.2% 15.6–25.8% 15.0–26.9%
2–7 September 2018 SKOP 17.4% 16.5–18.4% 16.2–18.7% 16.0–19.0% 15.5–19.4%
3–7 September 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 16.8% 15.7–18.0% 15.3–18.4% 15.1–18.7% 14.5–19.3%
5–6 September 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.0% 16.2–17.9% 16.0–18.1% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7%
30 August–6 September 2018 SKOP 17.7% 16.8–18.6% 16.6–18.9% 16.3–19.1% 15.9–19.6%
4–6 September 2018 Novus
SVT		 19.1% 18.0–20.3% 17.6–20.7% 17.4–21.0% 16.8–21.6%
1–6 September 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 17.2% 16.1–18.5% 15.7–18.8% 15.5–19.1% 14.9–19.7%
3–5 September 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.9% 16.1–17.8% 15.9–18.0% 15.7–18.2% 15.3–18.6%
29 August–5 September 2018 SKOP 19.2% 18.2–20.2% 18.0–20.5% 17.7–20.8% 17.3–21.2%
2–5 September 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.8% 15.7–18.0% 15.4–18.3% 15.2–18.6% 14.7–19.1%
30 August–4 September 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.0% 16.2–18.0% 15.9–18.2% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9%
28 August–4 September 2018 SKOP 20.0% 19.0–21.0% 18.7–21.3% 18.5–21.6% 18.0–22.1%
30 August–4 September 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 18.2% 17.0–19.5% 16.6–19.8% 16.4–20.1% 15.8–20.8%
29 August–3 September 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.2% 16.3–18.2% 16.1–18.4% 15.9–18.6% 15.5–19.1%
27 August–3 September 2018 SKOP 20.3% 19.1–21.6% 18.8–21.9% 18.5–22.3% 17.9–22.9%
27 August–3 September 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 17.3% 16.4–18.3% 16.1–18.6% 15.9–18.9% 15.4–19.3%
26 August–2 September 2018 SKOP 19.7% 18.6–20.9% 18.3–21.2% 18.0–21.5% 17.5–22.1%
28 August–2 September 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.3% 15.2–17.4% 14.9–17.7% 14.7–18.0% 14.2–18.6%
30 August–1 September 2018 YouGov
Metro		 24.8% 23.3–26.3% 22.9–26.8% 22.6–27.1% 21.9–27.9%
25–31 August 2018 SKOP 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
28–30 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.8% 15.9–17.7% 15.7–18.0% 15.5–18.2% 15.1–18.6%
24–30 August 2018 SKOP 19.5% 18.4–20.7% 18.0–21.0% 17.8–21.3% 17.3–21.9%
25–30 August 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 18.1% 17.1–19.2% 16.9–19.5% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2%
23–30 August 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 19.8% 18.6–21.1% 18.2–21.5% 17.9–21.8% 17.4–22.5%
27–29 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 17.6% 16.7–18.5% 16.4–18.8% 16.2–19.0% 15.8–19.5%
22–29 August 2018 SKOP 20.6% 19.6–21.6% 19.3–21.9% 19.1–22.1% 18.6–22.6%
25–28 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 19.2% 18.3–20.2% 18.0–20.4% 17.8–20.7% 17.4–21.1%
21–28 August 2018 SKOP 20.3% 19.3–21.4% 19.0–21.7% 18.7–22.0% 18.2–22.6%
22–28 August 2018 Novus
SVT		 18.2% 17.0–19.5% 16.7–19.8% 16.4–20.1% 15.8–20.8%
22–27 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.8% 17.9–19.8% 17.6–20.1% 17.4–20.3% 16.9–20.8%
20–27 August 2018 SKOP 20.1% 19.1–21.1% 18.9–21.4% 18.7–21.6% 18.2–22.1%
21–26 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.5% 17.6–19.5% 17.3–19.8% 17.1–20.0% 16.6–20.5%
22–26 August 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 18.7% 17.8–19.6% 17.6–19.8% 17.4–20.1% 17.0–20.5%
16–24 August 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 19.4% 18.3–20.6% 18.0–21.0% 17.7–21.3% 17.1–21.9%
20–23 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.6% 17.8–19.4% 17.6–19.6% 17.4–19.8% 17.1–20.2%
16–22 August 2018 SKOP 20.1% 19.0–21.3% 18.7–21.6% 18.4–21.9% 17.9–22.4%
13–21 August 2018 Novus
SVT		 19.2% 18.0–20.5% 17.6–20.9% 17.4–21.2% 16.8–21.8%
17–20 August 2018 YouGov
Metro		 24.2% 22.8–25.6% 22.4–26.0% 22.1–26.4% 21.4–27.1%
13–16 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.7% 17.9–19.6% 17.6–19.8% 17.4–20.0% 17.0–20.5%
7–16 August 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.6% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4%
10–16 August 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 18.8% 17.7–19.9% 17.4–20.3% 17.1–20.5% 16.6–21.1%
8–15 August 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 19.6% 18.4–20.9% 18.0–21.3% 17.7–21.6% 17.1–22.3%
9–14 August 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 21.8% 20.0–23.8% 19.5–24.4% 19.1–24.9% 18.2–25.8%
23 July–12 August 2018 Novus
SVT		 21.4% 20.6–22.2% 20.3–22.4% 20.2–22.6% 19.8–23.0%
6–9 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.8% 15.8–17.8% 15.5–18.1% 15.3–18.4% 14.8–18.9%
25 July–2 August 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 19.0% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.4% 17.4–20.7% 17.0–21.2%
27 July–1 August 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 25.5% 23.5–27.6% 22.9–28.2% 22.5–28.7% 21.5–29.8%
25 June–22 July 2018 Novus
SVT		 21.6% 20.9–22.4% 20.7–22.6% 20.5–22.8% 20.1–23.2%
20 June–21 July 2018 SKOP 20.7% 19.3–22.3% 18.9–22.8% 18.5–23.1% 17.8–23.9%
13–15 July 2018 YouGov
Metro		 25.7% 24.2–27.4% 23.7–27.8% 23.3–28.3% 22.6–29.1%
28 June–3 July 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 25.6% 23.6–27.7% 23.0–28.3% 22.6–28.8% 21.6–29.9%
25 June–3 July 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 21.0% 19.7–22.3% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.1% 18.5–23.7%
20–26 June 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.9%
7–24 June 2018 Novus
SVT		 22.4% 21.4–23.5% 21.1–23.8% 20.8–24.0% 20.3–24.6%
15–18 June 2018 YouGov
Metro		 28.4% 27.0–29.9% 26.6–30.4% 26.2–30.7% 25.5–31.5%
8 May–18 June 2018 SKOP 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–20.9% 16.9–21.3% 16.2–22.0%
7–18 June 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 20.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
4–14 June 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.6% 17.5–19.7% 17.3–20.0% 17.0–20.3% 16.5–20.8%
14 May–6 June 2018 Novus
SVT		 21.9% 21.1–22.7% 20.9–22.9% 20.7–23.1% 20.4–23.5%
29 May–6 June 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 21.0% 19.7–22.4% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.1% 18.5–23.7%
1–5 June 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 26.1% 24.4–27.9% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
21–30 May 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 19.5% 18.4–20.6% 18.1–20.9% 17.8–21.2% 17.3–21.8%
27 April–29 May 2018 SCB 18.5% 17.8–19.3% 17.6–19.5% 17.4–19.6% 17.1–20.0%
10–21 May 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 19.8% 18.6–21.0% 18.3–21.4% 18.0–21.7% 17.5–22.3%
7–17 May 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 18.7% 18.1–19.3% 18.0–19.4% 17.8–19.5% 17.6–19.8%
11–14 May 2018 YouGov
Metro		 23.0% 21.7–24.5% 21.3–24.9% 21.0–25.2% 20.4–25.9%
16 April–13 May 2018 Novus
SVT		 19.2% 18.5–19.9% 18.3–20.1% 18.2–20.3% 17.8–20.6%
4–7 May 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 23.1% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.3% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.6%
1–7 May 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 16.9% 15.9–18.0% 15.7–18.3% 15.4–18.5% 15.0–19.0%
24 April–2 May 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 19.4% 18.2–20.7% 17.8–21.1% 17.5–21.4% 17.0–22.0%
12–23 April 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–18.9% 14.6–19.6%
13–16 April 2018 YouGov
Metro		 22.1% 20.8–23.5% 20.4–23.9% 20.1–24.2% 19.4–24.9%
19 March–15 April 2018 Novus
SVT		 18.2% 17.5–18.9% 17.3–19.1% 17.1–19.3% 16.8–19.7%
16 March–13 April 2018 SKOP 16.7% 15.4–18.0% 15.1–18.4% 14.8–18.8% 14.2–19.4%
2–12 April 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 14.8% 14.3–15.3% 14.2–15.4% 14.1–15.5% 13.8–15.8%
5–10 April 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 21.4% 19.9–23.1% 19.5–23.5% 19.1–23.9% 18.4–24.7%
3–9 April 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 15.9% 14.9–17.0% 14.7–17.3% 14.4–17.6% 14.0–18.1%
27 March–4 April 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 18.8% 17.6–20.1% 17.3–20.5% 17.0–20.8% 16.4–21.4%
16–19 March 2018 YouGov
Metro		 22.4% 20.8–24.0% 20.4–24.5% 20.0–24.9% 19.3–25.7%
8–19 March 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.8% 15.7–18.1% 15.3–18.5% 15.0–18.8% 14.5–19.4%
19 February–18 March 2018 Novus
SVT		 17.8% 17.1–18.5% 17.0–18.7% 16.8–18.9% 16.5–19.2%
5–15 March 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 15.9% 15.4–16.4% 15.3–16.5% 15.2–16.6% 15.0–16.9%
8–14 March 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 23.0% 21.1–25.0% 20.5–25.6% 20.1–26.1% 19.2–27.1%
27 February–7 March 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 18.6% 17.4–19.9% 17.0–20.2% 16.8–20.6% 16.2–21.2%
1–5 March 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 15.7% 14.8–16.7% 14.5–17.0% 14.3–17.3% 13.8–17.7%
16–19 February 2018 YouGov
Metro		 22.1% 20.6–23.8% 20.2–24.2% 19.8–24.6% 19.1–25.4%
8–19 February 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.4–17.6% 14.1–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
22 January–18 February 2018 Novus
SVT		 17.1% 16.4–17.8% 16.2–18.0% 16.1–18.2% 15.8–18.5%
5–15 February 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.2% 15.7–16.7% 15.6–16.8% 15.5–16.9% 15.2–17.1%
9–14 February 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 21.9% 19.9–24.0% 19.4–24.6% 18.9–25.1% 18.0–26.1%
30 January–6 February 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 15.4% 14.3–16.6% 14.0–16.9% 13.7–17.2% 13.2–17.8%
30 January–5 February 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 15.6% 14.6–16.6% 14.3–16.9% 14.1–17.2% 13.6–17.7%
11 January–2 February 2018 SKOP 15.5% 14.3–16.8% 13.9–17.2% 13.6–17.5% 13.1–18.2%
2–22 January 2018 Novus
SVT		 16.5% 15.8–17.3% 15.6–17.5% 15.4–17.7% 15.0–18.1%
10–21 January 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.5–17.5% 14.3–17.8% 13.8–18.4%
8–18 January 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.2% 15.2–17.2% 14.9–17.5% 14.7–17.8% 14.2–18.3%
12–16 January 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 22.2% 20.7–23.8% 20.3–24.2% 19.9–24.6% 19.2–25.4%
12–15 January 2018 YouGov
Metro		 20.5% 19.1–22.1% 18.6–22.5% 18.3–22.9% 17.6–23.7%
2–9 January 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 17.9% 16.8–19.2% 16.4–19.6% 16.1–19.9% 15.6–20.5%
3–8 January 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 16.0% 15.0–17.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.1–18.1%
27 November–21 December 2017 Novus
SVT		 16.8% 16.0–17.6% 15.8–17.8% 15.7–18.0% 15.3–18.4%
15–18 December 2017 YouGov
Metro		 20.5% 19.2–21.9% 18.8–22.3% 18.5–22.6% 17.9–23.3%
4–14 December 2017 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 15.0–18.1% 14.5–18.6%
6–14 December 2017 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.8% 13.8–18.4%
1–6 December 2017 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 23.0% 21.3–24.9% 20.8–25.5% 20.4–25.9% 19.5–26.9%
28 November–5 December 2017 Demoskop
Expressen		 18.3% 17.1–19.6% 16.8–19.9% 16.5–20.3% 15.9–20.9%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Sverigedemokraterna.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12.5–13.5% 0% 100% Last Result
13.5–14.5% 0.1% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 2% 99.9%  
15.5–16.5% 14% 98%  
16.5–17.5% 28% 84%  
17.5–18.5% 18% 55% Median
18.5–19.5% 8% 37%  
19.5–20.5% 5% 29%  
20.5–21.5% 4% 24%  
21.5–22.5% 4% 20%  
22.5–23.5% 4% 16%  
23.5–24.5% 5% 12%  
24.5–25.5% 4% 8%  
25.5–26.5% 3% 3%  
26.5–27.5% 0.8% 0.9%  
27.5–28.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
28.5–29.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 49 seats (General Election of 14 September 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 64 58–89 57–93 56–94 54–98
2–7 September 2018 SKOP 64 61–67 60–68 59–69 58–71
3–7 September 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 61 57–65 55–67 54–67 52–69
5–6 September 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 62 58–65 58–65 57–66 56–67
30 August–6 September 2018 SKOP 64 60–68 59–68 58–69 57–71
4–6 September 2018 Novus
SVT		 68 65–72 63–74 62–75 60–77
1–6 September 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 62 58–66 57–67 56–68 54–71
3–5 September 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 61 57–63 57–64 56–66 55–67
29 August–5 September 2018 SKOP 69 66–74 65–75 65–75 63–76
2–5 September 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 61 57–65 55–66 54–67 53–69
30 August–4 September 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 61 58–65 57–65 56–66 55–67
28 August–4 September 2018 SKOP 72 69–76 67–77 66–78 65–79
30 August–4 September 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 65 61–70 60–72 59–73 56–75
29 August–3 September 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 62 58–65 58–66 57–67 56–68
27 August–3 September 2018 SKOP 73 69–78 68–79 67–80 65–83
27 August–3 September 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 62 59–66 57–67 57–68 55–70
26 August–2 September 2018 SKOP 70 66–76 65–77 64–79 62–80
28 August–2 September 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 58 54–62 53–63 53–65 51–66
30 August–1 September 2018 YouGov
Metro		 90 84–95 83–96 81–98 79–103
25–31 August 2018 SKOP 71 68–75 67–77 66–78 64–80
28–30 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 61 58–64 57–65 56–65 54–67
24–30 August 2018 SKOP 70 65–73 64–75 64–77 62–78
25–30 August 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 65 62–68 61–69 61–71 58–73
23–30 August 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 71 67–77 66–78 64–79 62–81
27–29 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 62 60–66 59–67 58–68 57–70
22–29 August 2018 SKOP 73 70–76 68–78 68–79 66–81
25–28 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 68 65–72 65–73 64–73 62–75
21–28 August 2018 SKOP 73 70–77 68–77 67–79 66–81
22–28 August 2018 Novus
SVT		 65 61–70 60–71 58–72 57–75
22–27 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 67 64–70 62–72 62–72 61–75
20–27 August 2018 SKOP 72 68–75 68–76 67–77 66–79
21–26 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 66 63–70 62–70 61–71 59–73
22–26 August 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 66 64–70 64–72 63–73 60–73
16–24 August 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 70 65–74 64–76 63–77 61–79
20–23 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 66 63–69 63–70 62–71 61–72
16–22 August 2018 SKOP 73 69–77 68–79 68–81 65–83
13–21 August 2018 Novus
SVT		 71 66–75 65–77 64–78 61–80
17–20 August 2018 YouGov
Metro		 88 83–95 80–97 79–98 77–101
13–16 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 68 64–71 63–72 62–73 60–75
7–16 August 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 70 64–76 64–76 62–77 60–79
10–16 August 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 68 64–72 62–73 61–75 60–77
8–15 August 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 71 67–77 66–80 64–80 63–84
9–14 August 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 83 75–91 72–93 71–95 67–100
23 July–12 August 2018 Novus
SVT		 80 77–83 76–83 75–84 74–86
6–9 August 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 63 59–65 58–67 57–68 55–70
25 July–2 August 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 69 65–73 64–74 63–77 61–79
27 July–1 August 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 97 88–106 86–108 84–111 80–114
25 June–22 July 2018 Novus
SVT		 80 77–83 76–84 76–84 74–86
20 June–21 July 2018 SKOP 78 72–85 70–86 69–88 66–91
13–15 July 2018 YouGov
Metro		 95 88–101 86–104 84–106 81–110
28 June–3 July 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 96 87–104 85–106 83–109 79–114
25 June–3 July 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 80 75–88 73–88 71–89 69–92
20–26 June 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 76 71–80 70–82 69–84 66–86
7–24 June 2018 Novus
SVT		 83 79–87 78–88 77–89 74–92
15–18 June 2018 YouGov
Metro		 111 103–119 100–122 99–126 97–127
8 May–18 June 2018 SKOP 72 66–78 65–79 63–82 61–85
7–18 June 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 77 72–83 70–84 69–86 66–90
4–14 June 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 69 65–74 64–75 63–76 61–78
14 May–6 June 2018 Novus
SVT		 81 79–85 78–86 77–87 76–89
29 May–6 June 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 78 73–83 72–84 71–87 69–90
1–5 June 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 96 90–103 88–104 86–107 83–111
21–30 May 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 72 68–77 67–78 65–80 63–84
27 April–29 May 2018 SCB 69 66–72 65–74 65–75 63–78
10–21 May 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 75 69–80 68–82 67–83 64–86
7–17 May 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 71 67–73 67–74 67–76 66–76
11–14 May 2018 YouGov
Metro		 89 83–97 81–99 79–100 76–104
16 April–13 May 2018 Novus
SVT		 72 70–75 69–77 68–78 67–80
4–7 May 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 89 83–96 80–98 79–100 75–104
1–7 May 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 64 61–70 59–71 58–71 56–74
24 April–2 May 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 73 68–78 67–80 65–80 63–83
12–23 April 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 65 60–70 59–71 57–72 55–75
13–16 April 2018 YouGov
Metro		 87 79–95 77–98 76–99 73–101
19 March–15 April 2018 Novus
SVT		 69 66–72 65–73 64–74 63–76
16 March–13 April 2018 SKOP 65 57–68 57–69 55–70 52–74
2–12 April 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 56 55–59 54–60 53–61 53–62
5–10 April 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 82 75–90 74–92 72–94 69–97
3–9 April 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 61 56–66 56–67 55–68 53–71
27 March–4 April 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 70 66–76 64–77 62–78 61–82
16–19 March 2018 YouGov
Metro		 84 79–92 77–95 75–96 72–101
8–19 March 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 64 60–69 58–70 57–72 55–75
19 February–18 March 2018 Novus
SVT		 68 65–71 64–72 63–73 62–74
5–15 March 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 61 58–63 57–64 57–65 56–66
8–14 March 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 85 77–94 76–97 73–100 70–103
27 February–7 March 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 69 64–74 63–75 62–77 60–80
1–5 March 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 61 58–66 57–66 56–67 53–69
16–19 February 2018 YouGov
Metro		 86 80–92 78–95 77–97 74–100
8–19 February 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 60 57–66 55–67 54–68 52–72
22 January–18 February 2018 Novus
SVT		 63 61–66 60–67 59–68 58–70
5–15 February 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 60 58–61 58–62 57–63 57–63
9–14 February 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 84 75–92 74–94 71–97 68–100
30 January–6 February 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 58 51–62 51–63 50–64 49–66
30 January–5 February 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 61 56–65 55–65 54–67 51–70
11 January–2 February 2018 SKOP 59 54–65 52–66 51–67 49–69
2–22 January 2018 Novus
SVT		 61 58–65 58–67 57–67 56–69
10–21 January 2018 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 60 56–65 54–66 54–68 52–70
8–18 January 2018 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 60 57–65 56–66 55–67 54–70
12–16 January 2018 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 89 81–95 79–97 78–98 75–101
12–15 January 2018 YouGov
Metro		 80 74–86 72–88 70–90 67–93
2–9 January 2018 Demoskop
Expressen		 66 63–72 63–74 62–76 60–79
3–8 January 2018 Inizio
Aftonbladet		 63 59–68 58–68 56–70 54–72
27 November–21 December 2017 Novus
SVT		 63 59–66 58–66 58–68 56–69
15–18 December 2017 YouGov
Metro		 79 73–85 71–87 69–88 67–91
4–14 December 2017 Sifo
Svenska Dagbladet		 61 58–66 57–68 56–69 54–71
6–14 December 2017 Ipsos
Dagens Nyheter		 60 56–65 55–68 55–69 52–70
1–6 December 2017 Sentio
Nyheter Idag		 89 81–96 78–99 76–102 73–105
28 November–5 December 2017 Demoskop
Expressen		 69 65–74 63–75 62–77 60–80

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Sverigedemokraterna.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 99.6%  
55 0.9% 99.2%  
56 1.5% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 5% 95%  
59 4% 90%  
60 7% 85%  
61 9% 79%  
62 9% 70%  
63 8% 61%  
64 5% 53% Median
65 6% 48%  
66 5% 42%  
67 4% 37%  
68 2% 34%  
69 1.3% 32%  
70 2% 30%  
71 2% 29%  
72 0.9% 26%  
73 0.7% 25%  
74 0.4% 25%  
75 0.7% 24%  
76 0.6% 24%  
77 0.5% 23%  
78 0.7% 22%  
79 0.7% 22%  
80 0.8% 21%  
81 1.0% 20%  
82 1.0% 19%  
83 1.3% 18%  
84 1.0% 17%  
85 2% 16%  
86 1.2% 14%  
87 0.5% 13%  
88 2% 12%  
89 2% 10%  
90 2% 9%  
91 1.2% 7%  
92 0.6% 6%  
93 2% 5%  
94 1.0% 3%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.3% 1.1%  
97 0.1% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.7%  
99 0.1% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%