Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti
Voting Intentions
Last result: 31.0% (General Election of 14 September 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 24.9% | 22.7–26.8% | 21.9–27.3% | 21.2–27.7% | 20.0–28.5% |
| 2–7 September 2018 | SKOP | 25.9% | 24.8–27.1% | 24.5–27.4% | 24.2–27.7% | 23.7–28.2% |
| 3–7 September 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
24.6% | 23.2–26.0% | 22.9–26.4% | 22.5–26.7% | 21.9–27.4% |
| 5–6 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
24.5% | 23.6–25.4% | 23.3–25.7% | 23.1–25.9% | 22.6–26.4% |
| 30 August–6 September 2018 | SKOP | 23.1% | 22.1–24.1% | 21.8–24.4% | 21.6–24.7% | 21.1–25.1% |
| 4–6 September 2018 | Novus SVT |
24.9% | 23.6–26.2% | 23.3–26.6% | 23.0–26.9% | 22.4–27.6% |
| 1–6 September 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
26.5% | 25.1–27.9% | 24.7–28.3% | 24.4–28.7% | 23.8–29.3% |
| 3–5 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
25.1% | 24.1–26.1% | 23.9–26.4% | 23.6–26.6% | 23.2–27.1% |
| 29 August–5 September 2018 | SKOP | 22.1% | 21.1–23.2% | 20.8–23.5% | 20.6–23.7% | 20.1–24.2% |
| 2–5 September 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
25.9% | 24.6–27.2% | 24.2–27.6% | 23.9–27.9% | 23.4–28.6% |
| 30 August–4 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
24.9% | 23.9–26.0% | 23.6–26.3% | 23.4–26.5% | 22.9–27.1% |
| 28 August–4 September 2018 | SKOP | 22.5% | 21.5–23.6% | 21.2–23.9% | 20.9–24.1% | 20.4–24.7% |
| 30 August–4 September 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
25.5% | 24.1–26.9% | 23.7–27.3% | 23.4–27.7% | 22.8–28.4% |
| 29 August–3 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
25.3% | 24.3–26.4% | 24.0–26.7% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.2–27.4% |
| 27 August–3 September 2018 | SKOP | 22.9% | 21.7–24.3% | 21.3–24.6% | 21.0–25.0% | 20.4–25.6% |
| 27 August–3 September 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
24.6% | 23.5–25.7% | 23.2–26.0% | 22.9–26.3% | 22.4–26.9% |
| 26 August–2 September 2018 | SKOP | 23.3% | 22.1–24.6% | 21.8–24.9% | 21.5–25.2% | 21.0–25.8% |
| 28 August–2 September 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
26.5% | 25.2–27.9% | 24.9–28.2% | 24.6–28.6% | 24.0–29.2% |
| 30 August–1 September 2018 | YouGov Metro |
23.8% | 22.3–25.3% | 21.9–25.7% | 21.6–26.1% | 20.9–26.8% |
| 25–31 August 2018 | SKOP | 23.8% | 22.6–25.1% | 22.3–25.4% | 22.0–25.7% | 21.4–26.3% |
| 28–30 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
25.5% | 24.5–26.6% | 24.3–26.9% | 24.0–27.1% | 23.5–27.6% |
| 24–30 August 2018 | SKOP | 24.7% | 23.5–26.0% | 23.1–26.4% | 22.8–26.7% | 22.2–27.3% |
| 25–30 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
23.1% | 22.0–24.3% | 21.7–24.6% | 21.5–24.9% | 20.9–25.4% |
| 23–30 August 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
24.6% | 23.2–26.0% | 22.8–26.4% | 22.5–26.7% | 21.9–27.4% |
| 27–29 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
25.6% | 24.6–26.7% | 24.3–27.0% | 24.0–27.2% | 23.5–27.8% |
| 22–29 August 2018 | SKOP | 25.7% | 24.6–26.8% | 24.4–27.1% | 24.1–27.4% | 23.6–27.9% |
| 25–28 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
25.2% | 24.2–26.3% | 23.9–26.6% | 23.7–26.8% | 23.2–27.3% |
| 21–28 August 2018 | SKOP | 25.5% | 24.3–26.7% | 24.0–27.0% | 23.7–27.3% | 23.2–27.9% |
| 22–28 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
24.3% | 22.9–25.7% | 22.6–26.1% | 22.2–26.4% | 21.6–27.1% |
| 22–27 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
25.9% | 24.8–27.0% | 24.5–27.3% | 24.3–27.6% | 23.8–28.2% |
| 20–27 August 2018 | SKOP | 24.8% | 23.8–25.9% | 23.5–26.2% | 23.3–26.4% | 22.8–26.9% |
| 21–26 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
26.2% | 25.1–27.3% | 24.8–27.6% | 24.6–27.9% | 24.1–28.4% |
| 22–26 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
24.0% | 23.0–25.0% | 22.8–25.2% | 22.5–25.5% | 22.1–26.0% |
| 16–24 August 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
26.3% | 25.0–27.6% | 24.7–28.0% | 24.3–28.3% | 23.7–29.0% |
| 20–23 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
25.4% | 24.5–26.3% | 24.3–26.5% | 24.1–26.7% | 23.7–27.2% |
| 16–22 August 2018 | SKOP | 24.5% | 23.4–25.8% | 23.0–26.1% | 22.7–26.4% | 22.2–27.0% |
| 13–21 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
25.1% | 23.8–26.5% | 23.4–26.9% | 23.1–27.2% | 22.4–27.9% |
| 17–20 August 2018 | YouGov Metro |
21.9% | 20.6–23.3% | 20.2–23.7% | 19.9–24.0% | 19.3–24.7% |
| 13–16 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
25.2% | 24.2–26.2% | 24.0–26.4% | 23.8–26.7% | 23.3–27.1% |
| 7–16 August 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
24.9% | 23.7–26.2% | 23.3–26.6% | 23.0–26.9% | 22.4–27.6% |
| 10–16 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
24.6% | 23.4–25.8% | 23.1–26.2% | 22.8–26.5% | 22.2–27.1% |
| 8–15 August 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
23.6% | 22.3–25.0% | 21.9–25.4% | 21.6–25.7% | 20.9–26.4% |
| 9–14 August 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
22.5% | 20.7–24.5% | 20.1–25.0% | 19.7–25.5% | 18.8–26.5% |
| 23 July–12 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
24.0% | 23.2–24.9% | 23.0–25.1% | 22.8–25.3% | 22.4–25.8% |
| 6–9 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
25.8% | 24.7–27.0% | 24.3–27.3% | 24.1–27.6% | 23.5–28.2% |
| 25 July–2 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
24.9% | 23.8–26.1% | 23.5–26.4% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.6–27.3% |
| 27 July–1 August 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
21.2% | 19.3–23.2% | 18.8–23.7% | 18.4–24.2% | 17.5–25.2% |
| 25 June–22 July 2018 | Novus SVT |
23.7% | 22.9–24.5% | 22.7–24.7% | 22.5–24.9% | 22.1–25.3% |
| 20 June–21 July 2018 | SKOP | 25.9% | 24.3–27.6% | 23.9–28.1% | 23.5–28.5% | 22.7–29.3% |
| 13–15 July 2018 | YouGov Metro |
21.2% | 19.8–22.8% | 19.4–23.2% | 19.0–23.6% | 18.3–24.4% |
| 28 June–3 July 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
21.3% | 19.4–23.3% | 18.9–23.9% | 18.5–24.4% | 17.6–25.3% |
| 25 June–3 July 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
25.9% | 24.5–27.3% | 24.1–27.7% | 23.8–28.1% | 23.2–28.8% |
| 20–26 June 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
23.9% | 22.7–25.1% | 22.4–25.5% | 22.1–25.8% | 21.6–26.4% |
| 7–24 June 2018 | Novus SVT |
24.5% | 23.4–25.6% | 23.1–25.9% | 22.9–26.2% | 22.4–26.7% |
| 15–18 June 2018 | YouGov Metro |
22.0% | 20.7–23.4% | 20.3–23.8% | 20.0–24.1% | 19.3–24.8% |
| 8 May–18 June 2018 | SKOP | 26.3% | 24.7–27.9% | 24.3–28.4% | 23.9–28.8% | 23.2–29.6% |
| 7–18 June 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
24.0% | 22.7–25.3% | 22.4–25.7% | 22.1–26.0% | 21.5–26.7% |
| 4–14 June 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
26.2% | 25.0–27.4% | 24.7–27.8% | 24.4–28.1% | 23.8–28.7% |
| 14 May–6 June 2018 | Novus SVT |
23.8% | 23.0–24.6% | 22.8–24.9% | 22.6–25.1% | 22.2–25.5% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
23.1% | 21.8–24.5% | 21.4–24.9% | 21.1–25.3% | 20.5–25.9% |
| 1–5 June 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
21.7% | 20.1–23.5% | 19.7–23.9% | 19.3–24.4% | 18.5–25.2% |
| 21–30 May 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
24.5% | 23.3–25.7% | 23.0–26.1% | 22.7–26.4% | 22.1–27.0% |
| 27 April–29 May 2018 | SCB | 28.3% | 27.5–29.2% | 27.2–29.4% | 27.0–29.6% | 26.6–30.0% |
| 10–21 May 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
23.8% | 22.5–25.1% | 22.2–25.5% | 21.9–25.8% | 21.3–26.4% |
| 7–17 May 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
25.2% | 24.6–25.8% | 24.4–26.0% | 24.2–26.1% | 24.0–26.4% |
| 11–14 May 2018 | YouGov Metro |
23.0% | 21.7–24.5% | 21.3–24.9% | 21.0–25.2% | 20.4–25.9% |
| 16 April–13 May 2018 | Novus SVT |
26.9% | 26.1–27.7% | 25.9–27.9% | 25.7–28.1% | 25.3–28.5% |
| 4–7 May 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
25.3% | 23.6–27.2% | 23.2–27.7% | 22.8–28.1% | 22.0–29.0% |
| 1–7 May 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
26.6% | 25.4–27.8% | 25.1–28.2% | 24.8–28.5% | 24.2–29.1% |
| 24 April–2 May 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
26.3% | 24.9–27.7% | 24.5–28.1% | 24.2–28.5% | 23.6–29.2% |
| 12–23 April 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
26.0% | 24.6–27.5% | 24.2–27.9% | 23.9–28.3% | 23.2–29.0% |
| 13–16 April 2018 | YouGov Metro |
23.3% | 22.0–24.7% | 21.6–25.1% | 21.2–25.5% | 20.6–26.2% |
| 19 March–15 April 2018 | Novus SVT |
26.9% | 26.1–27.7% | 25.9–28.0% | 25.7–28.2% | 25.3–28.5% |
| 16 March–13 April 2018 | SKOP | 26.7% | 25.2–28.3% | 24.7–28.7% | 24.4–29.1% | 23.7–29.9% |
| 2–12 April 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
28.3% | 27.7–29.0% | 27.6–29.1% | 27.4–29.3% | 27.1–29.6% |
| 5–10 April 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
25.9% | 24.3–27.7% | 23.8–28.2% | 23.4–28.6% | 22.7–29.4% |
| 3–9 April 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
27.3% | 26.1–28.6% | 25.7–28.9% | 25.4–29.3% | 24.9–29.9% |
| 27 March–4 April 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
25.9% | 24.5–27.3% | 24.1–27.7% | 23.8–28.1% | 23.1–28.8% |
| 16–19 March 2018 | YouGov Metro |
24.0% | 22.5–25.7% | 22.0–26.2% | 21.6–26.6% | 20.9–27.4% |
| 8–19 March 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
27.7% | 26.3–29.2% | 25.9–29.7% | 25.5–30.0% | 24.9–30.8% |
| 19 February–18 March 2018 | Novus SVT |
27.8% | 27.0–28.6% | 26.8–28.8% | 26.6–29.0% | 26.2–29.4% |
| 5–15 March 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
29.0% | 28.4–29.6% | 28.2–29.8% | 28.1–29.9% | 27.8–30.2% |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
24.6% | 22.6–26.7% | 22.1–27.3% | 21.6–27.8% | 20.7–28.8% |
| 27 February–7 March 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
27.2% | 25.8–28.7% | 25.4–29.1% | 25.1–29.4% | 24.4–30.1% |
| 1–5 March 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
26.4% | 25.3–27.6% | 24.9–28.0% | 24.7–28.3% | 24.1–28.8% |
| 16–19 February 2018 | YouGov Metro |
22.4% | 20.9–24.0% | 20.4–24.5% | 20.1–24.9% | 19.4–25.7% |
| 8–19 February 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
29.0% | 27.5–30.6% | 27.1–31.1% | 26.7–31.5% | 26.0–32.2% |
| 22 January–18 February 2018 | Novus SVT |
28.4% | 27.6–29.2% | 27.4–29.5% | 27.2–29.7% | 26.8–30.1% |
| 5–15 February 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
27.2% | 26.7–27.8% | 26.5–28.0% | 26.4–28.1% | 26.1–28.4% |
| 9–14 February 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
24.6% | 22.6–26.8% | 22.0–27.4% | 21.5–28.0% | 20.6–29.0% |
| 30 January–6 February 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
27.3% | 25.9–28.8% | 25.5–29.2% | 25.2–29.5% | 24.5–30.2% |
| 30 January–5 February 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
28.5% | 27.2–29.7% | 26.9–30.1% | 26.6–30.4% | 26.0–31.0% |
| 11 January–2 February 2018 | SKOP | 26.9% | 25.4–28.5% | 24.9–28.9% | 24.6–29.3% | 23.9–30.1% |
| 2–22 January 2018 | Novus SVT |
28.6% | 27.7–29.5% | 27.5–29.8% | 27.2–30.0% | 26.8–30.5% |
| 10–21 January 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
28.0% | 26.6–29.4% | 26.2–29.9% | 25.9–30.2% | 25.2–30.9% |
| 8–18 January 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
27.7% | 26.5–29.0% | 26.2–29.3% | 25.9–29.6% | 25.3–30.3% |
| 12–16 January 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
27.0% | 25.4–28.7% | 25.0–29.2% | 24.6–29.6% | 23.8–30.5% |
| 12–15 January 2018 | YouGov Metro |
26.2% | 24.6–27.9% | 24.2–28.4% | 23.8–28.8% | 23.0–29.6% |
| 2–9 January 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
27.8% | 26.4–29.3% | 26.0–29.7% | 25.7–30.0% | 25.0–30.7% |
| 3–8 January 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
28.3% | 27.1–29.6% | 26.8–29.9% | 26.5–30.2% | 25.9–30.8% |
| 27 November–21 December 2017 | Novus SVT |
29.5% | 28.6–30.4% | 28.3–30.7% | 28.1–30.9% | 27.7–31.4% |
| 15–18 December 2017 | YouGov Metro |
25.5% | 24.1–27.0% | 23.7–27.4% | 23.4–27.8% | 22.7–28.5% |
| 4–14 December 2017 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
29.3% | 28.1–30.6% | 27.7–30.9% | 27.4–31.3% | 26.9–31.9% |
| 6–14 December 2017 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
28.0% | 26.6–29.4% | 26.2–29.8% | 25.9–30.1% | 25.3–30.8% |
| 1–6 December 2017 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
23.0% | 21.3–24.9% | 20.8–25.5% | 20.4–25.9% | 19.5–26.9% |
| 28 November–5 December 2017 | Demoskop Expressen |
27.1% | 25.7–28.6% | 25.3–29.0% | 25.0–29.4% | 24.3–30.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 5% | 97% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 10% | 91% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 21% | 81% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 26% | 60% | Median |
| 25.5–26.5% | 21% | 34% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 10% | 13% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 113 seats (General Election of 14 September 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 90 | 83–96 | 80–98 | 78–100 | 74–103 |
| 2–7 September 2018 | SKOP | 94 | 88–98 | 88–99 | 87–101 | 85–103 |
| 3–7 September 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
89 | 83–94 | 82–94 | 81–96 | 79–98 |
| 5–6 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
89 | 85–91 | 84–92 | 83–93 | 81–95 |
| 30 August–6 September 2018 | SKOP | 83 | 79–87 | 79–89 | 77–90 | 75–91 |
| 4–6 September 2018 | Novus SVT |
90 | 85–94 | 84–95 | 82–96 | 80–99 |
| 1–6 September 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
96 | 90–100 | 88–101 | 87–103 | 85–105 |
| 3–5 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
90 | 86–93 | 86–94 | 85–96 | 83–97 |
| 29 August–5 September 2018 | SKOP | 80 | 76–85 | 75–86 | 75–87 | 72–88 |
| 2–5 September 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
93 | 88–98 | 87–99 | 85–101 | 83–104 |
| 30 August–4 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
89 | 86–93 | 84–94 | 84–95 | 82–97 |
| 28 August–4 September 2018 | SKOP | 81 | 77–85 | 76–87 | 75–87 | 73–89 |
| 30 August–4 September 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
92 | 86–97 | 85–99 | 84–100 | 81–103 |
| 29 August–3 September 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
91 | 87–94 | 86–96 | 85–97 | 84–98 |
| 27 August–3 September 2018 | SKOP | 83 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 76–90 | 74–92 |
| 27 August–3 September 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
88 | 84–92 | 83–94 | 82–95 | 80–97 |
| 26 August–2 September 2018 | SKOP | 85 | 80–89 | 79–90 | 77–91 | 75–94 |
| 28 August–2 September 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
95 | 90–99 | 89–101 | 88–102 | 86–105 |
| 30 August–1 September 2018 | YouGov Metro |
87 | 80–91 | 79–93 | 77–94 | 74–98 |
| 25–31 August 2018 | SKOP | 85 | 81–90 | 79–91 | 79–92 | 77–94 |
| 28–30 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
92 | 88–96 | 87–97 | 86–98 | 85–100 |
| 24–30 August 2018 | SKOP | 89 | 84–93 | 83–94 | 82–95 | 80–97 |
| 25–30 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
83 | 80–87 | 78–88 | 78–89 | 75–92 |
| 23–30 August 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
88 | 83–94 | 82–95 | 81–97 | 78–101 |
| 27–29 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
92 | 88–95 | 87–96 | 86–97 | 84–99 |
| 22–29 August 2018 | SKOP | 92 | 87–96 | 86–97 | 86–99 | 85–100 |
| 25–28 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
90 | 86–94 | 85–95 | 84–95 | 83–97 |
| 21–28 August 2018 | SKOP | 91 | 87–96 | 87–97 | 86–97 | 83–100 |
| 22–28 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
88 | 82–92 | 80–93 | 79–94 | 77–97 |
| 22–27 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
92 | 89–96 | 88–97 | 87–98 | 85–100 |
| 20–27 August 2018 | SKOP | 90 | 86–92 | 85–94 | 83–94 | 82–96 |
| 21–26 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
91 | 88–97 | 87–99 | 87–100 | 86–102 |
| 22–26 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
87 | 82–90 | 81–91 | 81–92 | 79–93 |
| 16–24 August 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
94 | 89–99 | 88–101 | 87–102 | 85–106 |
| 20–23 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
91 | 87–93 | 86–94 | 86–95 | 84–97 |
| 16–22 August 2018 | SKOP | 89 | 85–94 | 83–95 | 82–96 | 81–99 |
| 13–21 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
93 | 87–98 | 86–99 | 84–100 | 82–103 |
| 17–20 August 2018 | YouGov Metro |
80 | 74–86 | 73–87 | 71–89 | 69–92 |
| 13–16 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
91 | 86–94 | 85–96 | 85–97 | 83–100 |
| 7–16 August 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
92 | 85–97 | 84–99 | 83–99 | 81–101 |
| 10–16 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
88 | 84–93 | 83–95 | 82–96 | 80–99 |
| 8–15 August 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
87 | 80–92 | 79–94 | 79–96 | 77–98 |
| 9–14 August 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
84 | 76–93 | 74–97 | 73–98 | 69–102 |
| 23 July–12 August 2018 | Novus SVT |
89 | 87–93 | 86–93 | 85–94 | 84–96 |
| 6–9 August 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
95 | 91–99 | 91–101 | 89–102 | 87–104 |
| 25 July–2 August 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
90 | 86–95 | 85–97 | 84–99 | 82–102 |
| 27 July–1 August 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
81 | 72–89 | 70–91 | 68–94 | 65–98 |
| 25 June–22 July 2018 | Novus SVT |
88 | 85–90 | 84–91 | 83–92 | 82–94 |
| 20 June–21 July 2018 | SKOP | 98 | 90–106 | 88–108 | 88–109 | 84–111 |
| 13–15 July 2018 | YouGov Metro |
78 | 72–85 | 70–87 | 69–88 | 66–94 |
| 28 June–3 July 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
80 | 72–88 | 70–91 | 68–93 | 64–96 |
| 25 June–3 July 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
99 | 92–107 | 91–109 | 89–109 | 86–112 |
| 20–26 June 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
89 | 82–94 | 80–95 | 79–97 | 79–100 |
| 7–24 June 2018 | Novus SVT |
89 | 86–96 | 85–97 | 84–98 | 82–100 |
| 15–18 June 2018 | YouGov Metro |
86 | 79–92 | 77–92 | 76–95 | 73–99 |
| 8 May–18 June 2018 | SKOP | 98 | 92–106 | 91–108 | 89–110 | 86–114 |
| 7–18 June 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
92 | 86–99 | 84–102 | 83–103 | 81–105 |
| 4–14 June 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
97 | 92–103 | 91–105 | 91–107 | 88–108 |
| 14 May–6 June 2018 | Novus SVT |
89 | 85–92 | 85–93 | 84–94 | 82–97 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
86 | 80–92 | 79–94 | 77–95 | 76–98 |
| 1–5 June 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
80 | 75–86 | 73–89 | 71–90 | 67–94 |
| 21–30 May 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
91 | 86–96 | 84–98 | 84–99 | 81–103 |
| 27 April–29 May 2018 | SCB | 105 | 102–110 | 101–112 | 100–113 | 98–116 |
| 10–21 May 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
90 | 84–95 | 82–97 | 80–99 | 78–102 |
| 7–17 May 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
95 | 92–100 | 91–101 | 90–102 | 89–102 |
| 11–14 May 2018 | YouGov Metro |
90 | 83–97 | 81–100 | 80–100 | 76–104 |
| 16 April–13 May 2018 | Novus SVT |
101 | 98–105 | 97–107 | 96–108 | 94–111 |
| 4–7 May 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
97 | 90–104 | 89–106 | 87–110 | 84–115 |
| 1–7 May 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
102 | 96–107 | 94–108 | 92–110 | 91–114 |
| 24 April–2 May 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
98 | 93–105 | 92–106 | 90–108 | 88–110 |
| 12–23 April 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
101 | 93–106 | 91–106 | 90–108 | 86–112 |
| 13–16 April 2018 | YouGov Metro |
91 | 85–98 | 83–100 | 81–102 | 79–105 |
| 19 March–15 April 2018 | Novus SVT |
102 | 98–107 | 97–108 | 96–109 | 93–111 |
| 16 March–13 April 2018 | SKOP | 101 | 93–105 | 91–107 | 90–109 | 87–117 |
| 2–12 April 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
108 | 105–114 | 104–114 | 104–114 | 103–117 |
| 5–10 April 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
100 | 92–108 | 90–109 | 88–112 | 84–115 |
| 3–9 April 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
104 | 99–110 | 97–112 | 95–114 | 93–117 |
| 27 March–4 April 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
97 | 92–103 | 89–105 | 88–106 | 85–109 |
| 16–19 March 2018 | YouGov Metro |
89 | 84–99 | 83–103 | 81–105 | 77–111 |
| 8–19 March 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
105 | 99–113 | 98–114 | 97–117 | 93–120 |
| 19 February–18 March 2018 | Novus SVT |
106 | 102–110 | 101–111 | 100–111 | 98–113 |
| 5–15 March 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
112 | 108–114 | 107–115 | 106–116 | 105–119 |
| 8–14 March 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
92 | 84–101 | 81–104 | 80–106 | 76–110 |
| 27 February–7 March 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
102 | 96–106 | 94–107 | 92–109 | 90–113 |
| 1–5 March 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
104 | 98–108 | 97–110 | 95–111 | 93–113 |
| 16–19 February 2018 | YouGov Metro |
88 | 81–94 | 79–96 | 78–97 | 75–101 |
| 8–19 February 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
112 | 105–116 | 103–119 | 101–120 | 99–124 |
| 22 January–18 February 2018 | Novus SVT |
105 | 102–109 | 101–110 | 100–111 | 99–114 |
| 5–15 February 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
101 | 99–102 | 98–104 | 98–104 | 97–105 |
| 9–14 February 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
93 | 85–103 | 83–104 | 81–107 | 77–111 |
| 30 January–6 February 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
101 | 96–108 | 95–109 | 93–111 | 90–114 |
| 30 January–5 February 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
110 | 104–116 | 103–120 | 101–120 | 97–125 |
| 11 January–2 February 2018 | SKOP | 102 | 96–109 | 94–112 | 92–113 | 89–115 |
| 2–22 January 2018 | Novus SVT |
107 | 103–112 | 102–113 | 101–114 | 99–117 |
| 10–21 January 2018 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
105 | 99–112 | 99–114 | 96–115 | 94–119 |
| 8–18 January 2018 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
104 | 99–109 | 98–111 | 97–113 | 94–116 |
| 12–16 January 2018 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
108 | 100–115 | 98–117 | 95–119 | 93–121 |
| 12–15 January 2018 | YouGov Metro |
101 | 95–108 | 93–111 | 90–113 | 87–117 |
| 2–9 January 2018 | Demoskop Expressen |
105 | 99–111 | 97–114 | 96–115 | 94–119 |
| 3–8 January 2018 | Inizio Aftonbladet |
111 | 105–119 | 103–120 | 101–121 | 99–124 |
| 27 November–21 December 2017 | Novus SVT |
109 | 105–114 | 104–115 | 104–116 | 102–119 |
| 15–18 December 2017 | YouGov Metro |
98 | 92–104 | 91–107 | 89–109 | 85–111 |
| 4–14 December 2017 | Sifo Svenska Dagbladet |
110 | 104–116 | 103–118 | 102–119 | 98–121 |
| 6–14 December 2017 | Ipsos Dagens Nyheter |
107 | 101–112 | 100–114 | 99–114 | 96–118 |
| 1–6 December 2017 | Sentio Nyheter Idag |
89 | 81–97 | 79–99 | 78–101 | 74–105 |
| 28 November–5 December 2017 | Demoskop Expressen |
103 | 96–107 | 95–110 | 93–112 | 91–115 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 79 | 2% | 97% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 82 | 2% | 93% | |
| 83 | 3% | 91% | |
| 84 | 3% | 88% | |
| 85 | 5% | 85% | |
| 86 | 5% | 81% | |
| 87 | 7% | 76% | |
| 88 | 7% | 69% | |
| 89 | 7% | 62% | |
| 90 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 91 | 8% | 46% | |
| 92 | 6% | 37% | |
| 93 | 5% | 32% | |
| 94 | 6% | 26% | |
| 95 | 4% | 20% | |
| 96 | 6% | 16% | |
| 97 | 3% | 10% | |
| 98 | 3% | 7% | |
| 99 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |