Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 27 November–21 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 29.5% 28.6–30.4% 28.3–30.7% 28.1–30.9% 27.7–31.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 21.3% 20.5–22.2% 20.3–22.4% 20.1–22.6% 19.7–23.0%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.8% 16.0–17.6% 15.8–17.8% 15.7–18.0% 15.3–18.4%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.8% 9.2–10.4% 9.1–10.6% 8.9–10.8% 8.6–11.1%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.5% 7.0–8.1% 6.8–8.2% 6.7–8.4% 6.5–8.7%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.4% 5.0–5.9% 4.8–6.0% 4.7–6.1% 4.5–6.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.3% 3.9–4.7% 3.8–4.9% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.3% 3.0–3.7% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.6–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 109 105–114 104–115 104–116 102–119
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 79 76–83 75–84 74–85 73–87
Sverigedemokraterna 49 63 59–66 58–66 58–68 56–69
Centerpartiet 22 36 34–39 33–40 33–40 32–42
Vänsterpartiet 21 28 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
Liberalerna 19 20 18–22 18–22 18–23 17–24
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 16 0–17 0–18 0–18 0–19
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0–15

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.6% 99.7%  
103 2% 99.1%  
104 4% 98%  
105 6% 94%  
106 6% 88%  
107 10% 82%  
108 18% 72%  
109 12% 54% Median
110 9% 42%  
111 9% 33%  
112 6% 25%  
113 7% 18% Last Result
114 3% 11%  
115 3% 8%  
116 3% 5%  
117 0.6% 2%  
118 0.3% 1.1%  
119 0.3% 0.7%  
120 0.3% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 2% 99.5%  
74 2% 98%  
75 5% 96%  
76 8% 90%  
77 12% 82%  
78 14% 71%  
79 12% 57% Median
80 13% 44%  
81 13% 31%  
82 7% 18%  
83 4% 11%  
84 4% 7% Last Result
85 1.2% 3%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.4% 0.4%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 1.1% 99.4%  
58 4% 98%  
59 7% 94%  
60 9% 88%  
61 16% 79%  
62 13% 63%  
63 18% 50% Median
64 15% 32%  
65 7% 18%  
66 6% 11%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.2% 3%  
69 1.0% 1.3%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.7%  
33 5% 98.9%  
34 11% 94%  
35 16% 83%  
36 24% 67% Median
37 16% 44%  
38 14% 28%  
39 9% 14%  
40 3% 5%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.8%  
25 5% 98.7%  
26 11% 94%  
27 25% 83%  
28 23% 58% Median
29 19% 36%  
30 10% 16%  
31 4% 6%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 11% 98%  
19 20% 87% Last Result
20 34% 67% Median
21 19% 33%  
22 9% 14%  
23 4% 5%  
24 0.6% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 0% 84%  
2 0% 84%  
3 0% 84%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0% 84%  
6 0% 84%  
7 0% 84%  
8 0% 84%  
9 0% 84%  
10 0% 84%  
11 0% 84%  
12 0% 84%  
13 0% 84%  
14 0% 84%  
15 24% 84%  
16 30% 61% Median
17 22% 30%  
18 7% 9%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 0% 1.0%  
4 0% 1.0%  
5 0% 1.0%  
6 0% 1.0%  
7 0% 1.0%  
8 0% 1.0%  
9 0% 1.0%  
10 0% 1.0%  
11 0% 1.0%  
12 0% 1.0%  
13 0% 1.0%  
14 0.5% 1.0%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 224 100% 220–233 218–236 218–237 215–240
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 188 100% 183–195 182–198 181–199 179–202
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 151 0% 144–156 141–157 140–158 138–160
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 149 141 0% 137–147 136–149 135–151 133–153
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 133 141 0% 137–147 136–149 135–150 133–153
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 137 0% 133–142 132–145 131–145 129–148
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 135 0% 131–141 131–143 129–145 128–148
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 135 0% 131–141 130–143 129–144 127–146
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 124 0% 115–128 112–129 111–130 109–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 116 0% 112–120 110–122 110–124 108–127
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 115 0% 112–120 110–122 109–123 108–126

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0.1% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.1% 99.7%  
215 0.4% 99.6%  
216 0.4% 99.2%  
217 0.9% 98.8%  
218 3% 98%  
219 3% 95% Last Result
220 7% 92%  
221 11% 85%  
222 11% 74%  
223 7% 63%  
224 14% 56% Median
225 10% 42%  
226 7% 32%  
227 4% 25%  
228 3% 20%  
229 2% 18%  
230 0.9% 16%  
231 1.3% 15%  
232 3% 13%  
233 2% 11%  
234 1.5% 9%  
235 2% 7%  
236 2% 5%  
237 0.7% 3%  
238 1.2% 2%  
239 0.2% 0.9%  
240 0.5% 0.7%  
241 0.1% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0.1% 100%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.8%  
179 0.2% 99.7%  
180 0.5% 99.5%  
181 2% 98.9%  
182 2% 97%  
183 7% 95%  
184 5% 88%  
185 9% 83%  
186 12% 74%  
187 6% 63%  
188 17% 56% Median
189 6% 39%  
190 7% 33%  
191 3% 26%  
192 7% 22%  
193 2% 16%  
194 2% 13%  
195 3% 11%  
196 1.2% 9%  
197 2% 7% Last Result
198 2% 5%  
199 1.2% 3%  
200 0.8% 2%  
201 0.3% 1.0%  
202 0.5% 0.7%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0.1% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.4% 99.6%  
139 1.0% 99.2%  
140 2% 98%  
141 2% 96%  
142 1.2% 94%  
143 2% 93%  
144 1.4% 91%  
145 3% 89%  
146 2% 86%  
147 2% 83%  
148 3% 81%  
149 4% 78%  
150 12% 74%  
151 13% 63%  
152 9% 50%  
153 9% 41% Median
154 11% 32%  
155 9% 21%  
156 5% 12%  
157 4% 7%  
158 2% 3%  
159 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
160 0.3% 0.5%  
161 0.2% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0.2% 99.9%  
133 0.3% 99.7%  
134 1.1% 99.4%  
135 1.3% 98%  
136 3% 97%  
137 6% 94%  
138 10% 87%  
139 7% 78%  
140 9% 70%  
141 13% 62%  
142 12% 48% Median
143 11% 37%  
144 6% 25%  
145 5% 20%  
146 3% 14%  
147 2% 11%  
148 3% 9%  
149 2% 6% Last Result
150 1.4% 4%  
151 1.0% 3%  
152 0.5% 2%  
153 0.7% 1.1%  
154 0.2% 0.4%  
155 0% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.3% 99.9%  
133 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
134 1.2% 99.1%  
135 1.4% 98%  
136 4% 97%  
137 7% 93%  
138 10% 87%  
139 7% 77%  
140 9% 69%  
141 13% 61%  
142 12% 47% Median
143 11% 36%  
144 6% 24%  
145 5% 19%  
146 3% 13%  
147 2% 10%  
148 3% 9%  
149 2% 6%  
150 1.1% 3%  
151 1.0% 2%  
152 0.4% 1.3%  
153 0.7% 0.9%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.4% 99.7%  
130 1.2% 99.4%  
131 3% 98%  
132 4% 96%  
133 3% 92%  
134 11% 89% Last Result
135 14% 78%  
136 10% 64%  
137 13% 54% Median
138 7% 41%  
139 7% 35%  
140 11% 27%  
141 4% 16%  
142 3% 12%  
143 3% 10%  
144 1.5% 7%  
145 3% 5%  
146 0.9% 2%  
147 0.3% 1.1%  
148 0.4% 0.9%  
149 0.3% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0.2% 99.9%  
128 0.7% 99.7%  
129 2% 98.9%  
130 2% 97%  
131 7% 95%  
132 8% 88%  
133 12% 80%  
134 12% 68%  
135 9% 56% Median
136 12% 47%  
137 8% 35%  
138 7% 28%  
139 6% 21%  
140 3% 15%  
141 4% 12% Last Result
142 3% 9%  
143 2% 6%  
144 1.4% 4%  
145 1.5% 3%  
146 0.5% 1.2%  
147 0.3% 0.8%  
148 0.2% 0.5%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0% 99.9% Last Result
126 0.2% 99.9%  
127 0.3% 99.7%  
128 0.8% 99.4%  
129 2% 98.6%  
130 2% 97%  
131 8% 95%  
132 8% 87%  
133 12% 79%  
134 12% 67%  
135 9% 55% Median
136 12% 46%  
137 8% 34%  
138 7% 27%  
139 6% 20%  
140 3% 14%  
141 3% 11%  
142 3% 8%  
143 2% 5%  
144 1.4% 3%  
145 1.2% 2%  
146 0.4% 0.9%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.2% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.8%  
109 0.3% 99.6%  
110 1.1% 99.3%  
111 3% 98%  
112 1.4% 95%  
113 1.2% 94%  
114 2% 93%  
115 2% 91%  
116 3% 89%  
117 0.7% 86%  
118 0.7% 85%  
119 2% 84%  
120 3% 82%  
121 4% 79%  
122 8% 76%  
123 14% 68%  
124 9% 53%  
125 13% 44% Median
126 7% 31%  
127 9% 24%  
128 8% 15%  
129 3% 7%  
130 2% 4%  
131 0.9% 1.5%  
132 0.4% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.6% 99.8%  
109 1.4% 99.2%  
110 3% 98%  
111 3% 95%  
112 10% 92%  
113 15% 82%  
114 8% 67%  
115 8% 58% Median
116 17% 51%  
117 8% 33%  
118 5% 26%  
119 7% 21%  
120 4% 14%  
121 3% 10%  
122 3% 7% Last Result
123 1.2% 4%  
124 0.9% 3%  
125 0.6% 2%  
126 0.8% 1.3%  
127 0.2% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.7% 99.6%  
109 1.4% 98.9%  
110 3% 97%  
111 3% 94%  
112 11% 92%  
113 15% 81%  
114 8% 66%  
115 8% 57% Median
116 17% 50%  
117 8% 32%  
118 5% 25%  
119 7% 20%  
120 4% 13%  
121 3% 9%  
122 3% 6%  
123 1.1% 3%  
124 0.8% 2%  
125 0.5% 1.2%  
126 0.4% 0.7%  
127 0.2% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations