Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 2–22 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 28.6% 27.7–29.5% 27.5–29.8% 27.2–30.0% 26.8–30.5%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 23.8% 22.9–24.7% 22.7–24.9% 22.5–25.1% 22.1–25.6%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.5% 15.8–17.3% 15.6–17.5% 15.4–17.7% 15.0–18.1%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.9% 8.4–9.5% 8.2–9.7% 8.1–9.8% 7.8–10.1%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.6% 7.1–8.2% 6.9–8.3% 6.8–8.5% 6.6–8.7%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.0% 4.6–5.5% 4.5–5.6% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–6.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.1% 3.7–4.5% 3.6–4.6% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.7% 2.4–3.1% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 107 103–112 102–113 101–114 99–117
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 89 85–93 84–94 83–95 82–98
Sverigedemokraterna 49 61 58–65 58–67 57–67 56–69
Centerpartiet 22 33 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Vänsterpartiet 21 28 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Liberalerna 19 18 17–21 17–21 17–21 15–23
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 15 0–17 0–17 0–17 0–18
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.8%  
100 0.9% 99.4%  
101 3% 98%  
102 4% 96%  
103 6% 92%  
104 7% 86%  
105 13% 78%  
106 13% 65%  
107 7% 52% Median
108 13% 45%  
109 8% 32%  
110 7% 24%  
111 5% 17%  
112 3% 11%  
113 4% 8% Last Result
114 2% 4%  
115 1.0% 2%  
116 0.5% 1.4%  
117 0.7% 0.9%  
118 0.2% 0.2%  
119 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.7% 99.7%  
83 2% 99.0%  
84 3% 97% Last Result
85 6% 94%  
86 14% 88%  
87 9% 74%  
88 9% 65%  
89 18% 56% Median
90 10% 38%  
91 6% 28%  
92 10% 22%  
93 4% 12%  
94 3% 8%  
95 3% 5%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.2%  
98 0.4% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 1.0% 99.7%  
57 2% 98.7%  
58 7% 97%  
59 8% 90%  
60 12% 82%  
61 22% 70% Median
62 14% 48%  
63 9% 33%  
64 8% 24%  
65 6% 16%  
66 4% 10%  
67 4% 6%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.9% 1.1%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.8%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 10% 96%  
32 20% 86%  
33 20% 65% Median
34 19% 46%  
35 14% 27%  
36 7% 13%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.5%  
26 7% 96%  
27 22% 89%  
28 21% 67% Median
29 18% 46%  
30 17% 28%  
31 6% 11%  
32 4% 5%  
33 0.8% 1.1%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0.5% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.3%  
17 21% 98%  
18 29% 76% Median
19 16% 48% Last Result
20 20% 32%  
21 10% 12%  
22 1.0% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 0% 68%  
2 0% 68%  
3 0% 68%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0% 68%  
7 0% 68%  
8 0% 68%  
9 0% 68%  
10 0% 68%  
11 0% 68%  
12 0% 68%  
13 0% 68%  
14 0% 68%  
15 27% 68% Median
16 28% 41%  
17 10% 12%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 219 228 100% 223–238 222–239 221–241 219–243
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet 197 195 100% 190–203 189–204 188–206 186–209
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna 149 150 0% 146–158 145–159 144–160 142–162
Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna 133 150 0% 146–158 145–159 144–160 142–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 148 0% 138–153 137–153 136–154 134–156
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 140 0% 136–147 135–148 134–149 132–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 140 0% 136–147 135–148 134–149 132–152
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 135 0% 130–142 129–143 129–144 127–146
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 122 0% 118–127 117–129 116–130 114–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 122 0% 118–127 117–129 116–130 114–132
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 120 0% 109–124 108–125 106–126 105–128

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0.1% 100%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
220 1.0% 99.5%  
221 1.5% 98%  
222 3% 97%  
223 4% 94%  
224 8% 90%  
225 11% 82%  
226 11% 71%  
227 7% 61%  
228 7% 53%  
229 9% 46% Median
230 2% 37%  
231 3% 35%  
232 3% 32%  
233 2% 29%  
234 4% 27%  
235 3% 23%  
236 4% 20%  
237 5% 16%  
238 4% 12%  
239 3% 7%  
240 2% 4%  
241 1.3% 3%  
242 1.0% 2%  
243 0.2% 0.5%  
244 0.2% 0.3%  
245 0.1% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Moderata samlingspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0.4% 99.9%  
186 0.4% 99.6%  
187 0.4% 99.2%  
188 3% 98.8%  
189 3% 96%  
190 4% 93%  
191 9% 89%  
192 9% 80%  
193 6% 71%  
194 13% 66%  
195 11% 53%  
196 1.3% 42% Median
197 7% 41% Last Result
198 4% 33%  
199 1.2% 29%  
200 5% 28%  
201 5% 23%  
202 1.3% 18%  
203 8% 17%  
204 4% 9%  
205 0.5% 5%  
206 2% 4%  
207 1.3% 2%  
208 0.2% 0.7%  
209 0.3% 0.5%  
210 0.2% 0.3%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0.1% 100%  
141 0.2% 99.9%  
142 0.5% 99.7%  
143 1.5% 99.2%  
144 2% 98%  
145 5% 95%  
146 3% 91%  
147 14% 87%  
148 12% 74%  
149 6% 61% Last Result
150 14% 55% Median
151 7% 41%  
152 5% 35%  
153 5% 30%  
154 4% 25%  
155 4% 21%  
156 3% 17%  
157 4% 14%  
158 4% 10%  
159 3% 6%  
160 1.0% 3%  
161 1.3% 2%  
162 0.3% 0.6%  
163 0.1% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Sverigedemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100% Last Result
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0.1% 100%  
141 0.2% 99.9%  
142 0.5% 99.7%  
143 1.5% 99.2%  
144 2% 98%  
145 5% 95%  
146 3% 91%  
147 14% 87%  
148 12% 74%  
149 6% 61%  
150 14% 55% Median
151 7% 41%  
152 5% 35%  
153 5% 30%  
154 4% 25%  
155 4% 21%  
156 3% 17%  
157 4% 14%  
158 4% 10%  
159 3% 6%  
160 1.0% 3%  
161 1.3% 2%  
162 0.3% 0.6%  
163 0.1% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0.1% 100%  
132 0.2% 99.9%  
133 0.2% 99.8%  
134 0.6% 99.5%  
135 1.4% 98.9%  
136 1.4% 98%  
137 2% 96%  
138 6% 94%  
139 3% 88%  
140 3% 85%  
141 3% 81%  
142 3% 79%  
143 6% 75%  
144 2% 70%  
145 5% 68%  
146 6% 63%  
147 4% 57%  
148 10% 53%  
149 14% 43%  
150 7% 29% Median
151 7% 22%  
152 5% 15%  
153 7% 11%  
154 2% 4%  
155 0.7% 2%  
156 0.6% 0.9%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.3% 99.7%  
133 1.0% 99.3%  
134 2% 98%  
135 5% 96%  
136 5% 91%  
137 7% 86%  
138 9% 79%  
139 10% 70%  
140 11% 60% Median
141 7% 49% Last Result
142 8% 42%  
143 6% 34%  
144 7% 27%  
145 5% 20%  
146 5% 15%  
147 4% 11%  
148 3% 7%  
149 2% 4%  
150 0.7% 2%  
151 0.7% 1.2%  
152 0.3% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100% Last Result
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.3% 99.7%  
133 1.0% 99.3%  
134 2% 98%  
135 5% 96%  
136 5% 91%  
137 7% 86%  
138 9% 79%  
139 10% 70%  
140 11% 60% Median
141 7% 49%  
142 8% 42%  
143 6% 34%  
144 7% 27%  
145 5% 20%  
146 5% 15%  
147 4% 11%  
148 3% 7%  
149 2% 4%  
150 0.7% 2%  
151 0.7% 1.2%  
152 0.3% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.3% 99.9%  
127 0.5% 99.6%  
128 0.9% 99.1%  
129 3% 98%  
130 5% 95%  
131 4% 90%  
132 6% 86%  
133 16% 79%  
134 11% 64% Last Result
135 6% 52% Median
136 7% 46%  
137 8% 39%  
138 9% 31%  
139 4% 22%  
140 4% 18%  
141 3% 14%  
142 3% 11%  
143 5% 8%  
144 0.9% 3%  
145 0.5% 2%  
146 0.9% 1.3%  
147 0.3% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.2% 99.9%  
114 0.5% 99.7%  
115 2% 99.3%  
116 1.5% 98%  
117 6% 96%  
118 8% 90%  
119 6% 82%  
120 11% 76%  
121 10% 65%  
122 9% 55% Last Result, Median
123 11% 46%  
124 6% 35%  
125 11% 29%  
126 4% 18%  
127 4% 14%  
128 4% 10%  
129 2% 6%  
130 2% 4%  
131 0.7% 2%  
132 0.5% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0.2% 99.9%  
114 0.5% 99.7%  
115 2% 99.3%  
116 1.5% 98%  
117 6% 96%  
118 8% 90%  
119 6% 82%  
120 11% 76%  
121 10% 65%  
122 9% 55% Median
123 11% 46%  
124 6% 35%  
125 11% 29%  
126 4% 18%  
127 4% 14%  
128 4% 10%  
129 2% 6%  
130 2% 4%  
131 0.7% 2%  
132 0.5% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.9% 99.6%  
106 1.5% 98.7%  
107 2% 97%  
108 3% 95%  
109 5% 92%  
110 4% 88%  
111 5% 84%  
112 3% 79%  
113 4% 76%  
114 2% 72%  
115 2% 70%  
116 2% 68%  
117 2% 66%  
118 6% 64%  
119 6% 59%  
120 3% 52%  
121 21% 49%  
122 7% 28% Median
123 5% 21%  
124 10% 16%  
125 4% 7%  
126 1.0% 3%  
127 1.1% 2%  
128 0.3% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations