Opinion Poll by SKOP, 11 January–2 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 26.9% 25.4–28.5% 24.9–28.9% 24.6–29.3% 23.9–30.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 24.9% 23.5–26.5% 23.1–26.9% 22.7–27.3% 22.0–28.1%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 15.5% 14.3–16.8% 13.9–17.2% 13.6–17.5% 13.1–18.2%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.7% 9.6–11.8% 9.4–12.1% 9.1–12.4% 8.7–13.0%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.7% 6.8–8.7% 6.6–9.0% 6.4–9.3% 6.0–9.8%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.1% 4.4–6.0% 4.2–6.2% 4.1–6.4% 3.7–6.9%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.5% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–5.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.1% 2.6–3.8% 2.4–4.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.5%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 102 96–109 94–112 92–113 89–115
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 94 89–101 87–102 86–105 83–107
Sverigedemokraterna 49 59 54–65 52–66 51–67 49–69
Centerpartiet 22 41 36–45 36–46 34–47 33–49
Vänsterpartiet 21 29 26–33 25–34 24–35 23–37
Liberalerna 19 20 16–22 16–23 0–24 0–26
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0–16 0–16 0–17 0–18
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0 0–15 0–15 0–17
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 0.4% 99.4%  
91 0.6% 99.0%  
92 1.2% 98%  
93 1.2% 97%  
94 2% 96%  
95 3% 94%  
96 4% 91%  
97 5% 87%  
98 5% 82%  
99 8% 76%  
100 5% 68%  
101 6% 63%  
102 7% 57% Median
103 7% 50%  
104 5% 43%  
105 13% 38%  
106 5% 26%  
107 4% 21%  
108 4% 17%  
109 3% 13%  
110 2% 10%  
111 1.3% 8%  
112 4% 7%  
113 1.4% 3% Last Result
114 0.8% 2%  
115 0.4% 0.8%  
116 0.2% 0.5%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.4% 99.6%  
84 0.5% 99.2% Last Result
85 0.9% 98.7%  
86 1.0% 98%  
87 3% 97%  
88 3% 94%  
89 4% 91%  
90 6% 87%  
91 10% 81%  
92 7% 71%  
93 9% 64%  
94 13% 55% Median
95 8% 42%  
96 4% 34%  
97 5% 30%  
98 5% 25%  
99 4% 19%  
100 3% 16%  
101 5% 12%  
102 3% 8%  
103 1.2% 5%  
104 0.5% 3%  
105 1.3% 3%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 0.5% 1.0%  
108 0.2% 0.5%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
50 1.2% 99.4%  
51 1.2% 98%  
52 3% 97%  
53 4% 94%  
54 4% 90%  
55 7% 86%  
56 10% 79%  
57 8% 69%  
58 8% 61%  
59 6% 53% Median
60 10% 47%  
61 8% 37%  
62 10% 29%  
63 4% 20%  
64 6% 16%  
65 2% 10%  
66 4% 8%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.5% 2%  
69 0.6% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 99.7%  
34 2% 99.0%  
35 2% 97%  
36 8% 96%  
37 6% 87%  
38 11% 82%  
39 9% 71%  
40 11% 62%  
41 14% 51% Median
42 8% 37%  
43 12% 29%  
44 6% 18%  
45 5% 11%  
46 3% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.5% 1.0%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100% Last Result
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 1.0% 99.6%  
24 3% 98.6%  
25 3% 96%  
26 10% 93%  
27 9% 83%  
28 16% 74%  
29 12% 58% Median
30 17% 46%  
31 5% 29%  
32 9% 24%  
33 7% 15%  
34 5% 8%  
35 1.3% 3%  
36 1.1% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.9%  
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0.7% 97%  
16 8% 97%  
17 7% 88%  
18 13% 81%  
19 13% 68% Last Result
20 20% 54% Median
21 18% 34%  
22 7% 16%  
23 5% 10%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.8% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 79% 100% Median
1 0% 21%  
2 0% 21%  
3 0% 21%  
4 0% 21%  
5 0% 21%  
6 0% 21%  
7 0% 21%  
8 0% 21%  
9 0% 21%  
10 0% 21%  
11 0% 21%  
12 0% 21%  
13 0% 21%  
14 0.2% 21%  
15 10% 21%  
16 6% 11% Last Result
17 3% 4%  
18 0.6% 0.9%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 0% 6%  
9 0% 6%  
10 0% 6%  
11 0% 6%  
12 0% 6%  
13 0% 6%  
14 0% 6%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.7%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 156 0.3% 149–167 146–169 145–171 140–174
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 153 0% 147–162 145–164 144–166 138–170
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 137 0% 129–149 127–151 126–152 124–156
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 132 0% 126–140 123–143 121–147 117–149
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 132 0% 126–140 123–143 121–147 117–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 135 0% 128–142 127–145 125–146 122–151
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 132 0% 125–139 122–141 120–143 117–147
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 103 0% 96–112 95–114 93–117 90–121

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.2% 99.7%  
141 0.1% 99.4% Last Result
142 0.2% 99.3%  
143 0.3% 99.1%  
144 0.6% 98.9%  
145 3% 98%  
146 0.7% 96%  
147 1.4% 95%  
148 2% 93%  
149 3% 91%  
150 2% 88%  
151 8% 86%  
152 5% 78%  
153 7% 72%  
154 3% 65%  
155 9% 62% Median
156 4% 53%  
157 3% 49%  
158 6% 45%  
159 4% 40%  
160 3% 35%  
161 4% 33%  
162 3% 29%  
163 2% 26%  
164 2% 24%  
165 5% 21%  
166 4% 16%  
167 3% 13%  
168 3% 10%  
169 3% 7%  
170 1.1% 4%  
171 0.7% 3%  
172 1.3% 2%  
173 0.4% 1.1%  
174 0.4% 0.7%  
175 0.2% 0.3% Majority
176 0.1% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100% Last Result
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0% 99.7%  
137 0.1% 99.7%  
138 0.2% 99.6%  
139 0.3% 99.4%  
140 0.3% 99.1%  
141 0.3% 98.8%  
142 0.3% 98%  
143 0.5% 98%  
144 0.9% 98%  
145 3% 97%  
146 2% 94%  
147 2% 92%  
148 3% 90%  
149 3% 87%  
150 7% 84%  
151 10% 77%  
152 10% 67%  
153 8% 57%  
154 4% 48%  
155 11% 44% Median
156 4% 34%  
157 4% 29%  
158 6% 25%  
159 4% 20%  
160 2% 16%  
161 3% 13%  
162 3% 11%  
163 2% 8%  
164 1.5% 6%  
165 2% 5%  
166 1.1% 3%  
167 0.6% 2%  
168 0.4% 2%  
169 0.6% 1.1%  
170 0.2% 0.5%  
171 0.1% 0.3%  
172 0.2% 0.2%  
173 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.6%  
125 2% 99.5%  
126 1.0% 98%  
127 2% 97%  
128 2% 95%  
129 3% 93%  
130 1.5% 90%  
131 4% 88%  
132 6% 84%  
133 2% 78%  
134 8% 76%  
135 10% 68% Median
136 7% 58%  
137 3% 51%  
138 5% 48%  
139 5% 43%  
140 5% 38%  
141 3% 34%  
142 3% 31%  
143 3% 28%  
144 5% 25%  
145 4% 20%  
146 2% 16%  
147 2% 14%  
148 2% 13%  
149 2% 10%  
150 1.4% 8%  
151 4% 7%  
152 0.8% 3%  
153 0.4% 2%  
154 0.6% 1.5%  
155 0.4% 0.9%  
156 0.1% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.3% 99.7%  
118 0.3% 99.4%  
119 0.3% 99.1%  
120 0.6% 98.9%  
121 0.8% 98%  
122 1.2% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 2% 94%  
125 2% 92%  
126 4% 90%  
127 6% 86%  
128 8% 80%  
129 7% 72%  
130 4% 65%  
131 5% 61% Median
132 6% 56%  
133 8% 50%  
134 6% 42%  
135 4% 35%  
136 4% 31%  
137 3% 28%  
138 7% 25%  
139 6% 18%  
140 3% 12%  
141 2% 10%  
142 2% 8%  
143 0.9% 6%  
144 1.1% 5%  
145 0.9% 4%  
146 0.3% 3%  
147 2% 3%  
148 0.2% 0.9%  
149 0.3% 0.7%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0% 0.3%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.3% 99.7%  
118 0.3% 99.4%  
119 0.3% 99.1%  
120 0.6% 98.9%  
121 0.8% 98%  
122 1.2% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 2% 94%  
125 2% 92%  
126 4% 90%  
127 6% 86%  
128 8% 80%  
129 7% 72%  
130 4% 65%  
131 5% 61% Median
132 6% 56%  
133 8% 50%  
134 6% 42%  
135 4% 35%  
136 4% 31%  
137 3% 28%  
138 7% 25%  
139 6% 18%  
140 3% 12%  
141 2% 10%  
142 2% 8%  
143 0.9% 6%  
144 1.1% 5%  
145 0.9% 4%  
146 0.3% 3%  
147 2% 3%  
148 0.2% 0.9%  
149 0.3% 0.7%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0% 0.3%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.3% 99.6%  
123 0.5% 99.3%  
124 0.5% 98.8%  
125 2% 98%  
126 1.3% 96%  
127 3% 95%  
128 2% 92%  
129 8% 90%  
130 2% 82%  
131 6% 80%  
132 9% 74%  
133 3% 65%  
134 9% 62%  
135 12% 53% Median
136 9% 41%  
137 3% 32%  
138 6% 29%  
139 4% 23%  
140 5% 19%  
141 3% 14%  
142 1.4% 11%  
143 2% 10%  
144 2% 8%  
145 3% 6%  
146 0.6% 3%  
147 0.7% 2%  
148 0.6% 2%  
149 0.2% 1.2%  
150 0.4% 0.9%  
151 0.2% 0.5%  
152 0.2% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7%  
117 0.4% 99.6%  
118 0.3% 99.2%  
119 0.4% 98.8%  
120 1.1% 98%  
121 0.9% 97%  
122 2% 96%  
123 2% 95%  
124 2% 93%  
125 3% 91%  
126 4% 88%  
127 7% 84%  
128 9% 77%  
129 7% 68%  
130 5% 62%  
131 5% 57% Median
132 7% 52%  
133 8% 45%  
134 6% 36% Last Result
135 4% 30%  
136 4% 26%  
137 2% 23%  
138 6% 20%  
139 6% 14%  
140 3% 8%  
141 2% 6%  
142 0.9% 4%  
143 0.5% 3%  
144 0.9% 2%  
145 0.7% 1.4%  
146 0.2% 0.8%  
147 0.2% 0.6%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.3% 99.6%  
91 0.5% 99.3%  
92 1.1% 98.8%  
93 1.0% 98%  
94 1.4% 97%  
95 3% 95%  
96 4% 93%  
97 5% 89%  
98 5% 84%  
99 7% 78%  
100 5% 72%  
101 6% 67%  
102 5% 60% Median
103 7% 55%  
104 5% 48%  
105 12% 43%  
106 5% 31%  
107 4% 26%  
108 5% 22%  
109 3% 18%  
110 2% 14%  
111 1.5% 12%  
112 4% 11%  
113 1.5% 7%  
114 2% 5%  
115 0.8% 4%  
116 0.4% 3%  
117 1.4% 3%  
118 0.1% 1.1%  
119 0.2% 1.0%  
120 0.2% 0.8%  
121 0.4% 0.6%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations