Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 30 January–5 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 28.5% 27.2–29.7% 26.9–30.1% 26.6–30.4% 26.0–31.0%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 24.6% 23.4–25.8% 23.1–26.1% 22.8–26.4% 22.2–27.0%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 15.6% 14.6–16.6% 14.3–16.9% 14.1–17.2% 13.6–17.7%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.3% 8.5–10.1% 8.3–10.4% 8.1–10.6% 7.8–11.0%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 6.8% 6.1–7.6% 6.0–7.8% 5.8–8.0% 5.5–8.3%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 4.1% 3.6–4.7% 3.4–4.9% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.2% 2.7–3.7% 2.6–3.9% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.3%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.1% 1.8–2.6% 1.7–2.7% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 110 104–116 103–120 101–120 97–125
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 94 89–101 88–104 87–105 85–108
Sverigedemokraterna 49 61 56–65 55–65 54–67 51–70
Centerpartiet 22 37 33–40 32–41 32–42 30–44
Vänsterpartiet 21 27 24–30 23–30 23–31 21–33
Kristdemokraterna 16 16 0–18 0–19 0–19 0–20
Liberalerna 19 16 0–18 0–18 0–19 0–20
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0 0 0 0–16
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.2% 100%  
96 0% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.4% 99.4%  
99 0.4% 99.0%  
100 0.3% 98.6%  
101 1.1% 98%  
102 1.3% 97%  
103 3% 96%  
104 10% 93%  
105 5% 83%  
106 9% 78%  
107 3% 69%  
108 7% 66%  
109 7% 59%  
110 9% 52% Median
111 8% 43%  
112 16% 36%  
113 3% 20% Last Result
114 2% 17%  
115 3% 15%  
116 2% 12%  
117 2% 10%  
118 1.4% 8%  
119 1.0% 7%  
120 3% 6%  
121 0.4% 2%  
122 0.8% 2%  
123 0.4% 1.1%  
124 0.2% 0.7%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
85 1.1% 99.5%  
86 0.5% 98%  
87 2% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 8% 94%  
90 4% 86%  
91 6% 83%  
92 15% 76%  
93 6% 62%  
94 7% 56% Median
95 9% 49%  
96 5% 40%  
97 8% 35%  
98 5% 27%  
99 4% 22%  
100 4% 18%  
101 4% 13%  
102 3% 9%  
103 1.4% 7%  
104 2% 5%  
105 0.9% 3%  
106 2% 2%  
107 0.2% 0.7%  
108 0.3% 0.5%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.7%  
52 0.5% 99.4%  
53 1.1% 98.9%  
54 2% 98%  
55 2% 96%  
56 6% 94%  
57 10% 87%  
58 11% 78%  
59 6% 67%  
60 8% 61%  
61 8% 53% Median
62 11% 46%  
63 6% 35%  
64 18% 28%  
65 6% 10%  
66 2% 5%  
67 0.9% 3%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.3% 1.3%  
70 0.6% 1.0%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.7%  
31 1.3% 98.9%  
32 3% 98%  
33 8% 95%  
34 7% 87%  
35 17% 80%  
36 11% 63%  
37 23% 51% Median
38 8% 29%  
39 9% 21%  
40 6% 12%  
41 2% 6%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.5%  
44 0.4% 0.8%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
22 2% 99.4%  
23 7% 98%  
24 7% 91%  
25 12% 84%  
26 14% 72%  
27 19% 58% Median
28 20% 39%  
29 9% 19%  
30 6% 10%  
31 3% 4%  
32 1.2% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.7%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100%  
1 0% 60%  
2 0% 60%  
3 0% 60%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 0% 60%  
8 0% 60%  
9 0% 60%  
10 0% 60%  
11 0% 60%  
12 0% 60%  
13 0% 60%  
14 0% 60%  
15 9% 60%  
16 18% 51% Last Result, Median
17 20% 33%  
18 7% 13%  
19 4% 6%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100%  
1 0% 62%  
2 0% 62%  
3 0% 62%  
4 0% 62%  
5 0% 62%  
6 0% 62%  
7 0% 62%  
8 0% 62%  
9 0% 62%  
10 0% 62%  
11 0% 62%  
12 0% 62%  
13 0% 62%  
14 0% 62%  
15 11% 62%  
16 27% 51% Median
17 12% 24%  
18 8% 12%  
19 3% 4% Last Result
20 1.2% 1.4%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0% 2%  
9 0% 2%  
10 0% 2%  
11 0% 2%  
12 0% 2%  
13 0% 2%  
14 0% 2%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.5% 0.8%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 141 152 0% 142–161 139–162 137–164 132–168
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 142 0% 129–152 129–154 129–155 125–159
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 143 0% 131–150 130–153 127–155 124–158
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 137 0% 130–144 128–147 127–149 124–154
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 137 0% 130–144 128–147 127–149 124–154
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 137 0% 129–144 128–147 126–148 122–153
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 130 0% 124–139 122–142 120–143 119–146
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 110 0% 104–117 103–120 102–122 99–127

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.2% 99.8%  
131 0.1% 99.7%  
132 0.2% 99.5%  
133 0.2% 99.3%  
134 0.4% 99.1%  
135 0.3% 98.7%  
136 0.9% 98%  
137 1.4% 98%  
138 0.6% 96%  
139 2% 96%  
140 0.9% 94%  
141 1.5% 93% Last Result
142 2% 91%  
143 2% 89%  
144 1.2% 87%  
145 13% 86%  
146 3% 73%  
147 2% 71%  
148 4% 68%  
149 5% 64%  
150 4% 59%  
151 4% 55%  
152 6% 51%  
153 4% 45%  
154 2% 41%  
155 8% 39%  
156 4% 31%  
157 3% 27%  
158 2% 25%  
159 4% 23%  
160 4% 19%  
161 9% 15%  
162 1.2% 6%  
163 0.5% 5% Median
164 2% 4%  
165 0.2% 2%  
166 0.7% 2%  
167 0.3% 1.1%  
168 0.7% 0.8%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9% Last Result
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.2% 99.8%  
125 0.3% 99.6%  
126 0.3% 99.3%  
127 0.3% 99.0%  
128 0.6% 98.7%  
129 12% 98%  
130 0.8% 86%  
131 2% 85%  
132 2% 83%  
133 2% 81%  
134 1.1% 79%  
135 2% 78%  
136 5% 76%  
137 6% 71%  
138 1.2% 65%  
139 5% 64%  
140 2% 59%  
141 4% 57%  
142 4% 52%  
143 5% 48%  
144 2% 44%  
145 7% 41%  
146 8% 34%  
147 3% 26% Median
148 4% 23%  
149 2% 19%  
150 3% 16%  
151 3% 13%  
152 4% 11%  
153 0.7% 6%  
154 1.0% 6%  
155 2% 5%  
156 0.5% 2%  
157 0.7% 2%  
158 0.4% 1.0%  
159 0.5% 0.7%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0.1% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0.1% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.3% 99.7%  
125 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
126 2% 99.2%  
127 0.4% 98%  
128 0.6% 97%  
129 1.4% 97%  
130 2% 95%  
131 4% 94%  
132 5% 90%  
133 1.4% 85%  
134 2% 83%  
135 3% 82%  
136 5% 79%  
137 3% 73%  
138 1.2% 70%  
139 5% 69%  
140 6% 64%  
141 4% 58%  
142 2% 55%  
143 6% 53%  
144 8% 47%  
145 18% 39%  
146 2% 21%  
147 0.9% 19% Median
148 1.4% 18%  
149 5% 17%  
150 2% 12%  
151 1.4% 10%  
152 1.2% 8%  
153 3% 7%  
154 0.5% 4%  
155 2% 3%  
156 0.6% 2%  
157 0.5% 1.0%  
158 0.4% 0.5%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.4% 99.6%  
125 0.4% 99.2%  
126 0.4% 98.8%  
127 1.2% 98%  
128 3% 97%  
129 3% 94%  
130 7% 91%  
131 10% 84%  
132 5% 74%  
133 2% 69%  
134 3% 68%  
135 6% 64%  
136 3% 58%  
137 11% 56% Median
138 3% 45%  
139 5% 42%  
140 15% 37%  
141 3% 22%  
142 3% 19%  
143 3% 16%  
144 4% 13%  
145 2% 9%  
146 0.9% 8%  
147 2% 7%  
148 2% 5%  
149 0.5% 3%  
150 0.9% 2%  
151 0.5% 1.4%  
152 0.1% 1.0%  
153 0.2% 0.8%  
154 0.1% 0.6%  
155 0% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.2% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1% Last Result
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.4% 99.6%  
125 0.4% 99.2%  
126 0.4% 98.8%  
127 1.2% 98%  
128 3% 97%  
129 3% 94%  
130 7% 91%  
131 10% 84%  
132 5% 74%  
133 2% 69%  
134 3% 68%  
135 6% 64%  
136 3% 58%  
137 11% 56% Median
138 3% 45%  
139 5% 42%  
140 15% 37%  
141 3% 22%  
142 3% 19%  
143 3% 16%  
144 4% 13%  
145 2% 9%  
146 0.9% 8%  
147 2% 7%  
148 2% 5%  
149 0.5% 3%  
150 0.9% 2%  
151 0.5% 1.4%  
152 0.1% 1.0%  
153 0.2% 0.8%  
154 0.1% 0.6%  
155 0% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.2% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1% Last Result
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0.2% 99.9%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.2% 99.5%  
124 0.9% 99.2%  
125 0.5% 98%  
126 0.7% 98%  
127 1.3% 97%  
128 3% 96%  
129 3% 93%  
130 8% 90%  
131 10% 82%  
132 5% 72%  
133 2% 67%  
134 3% 66% Last Result
135 6% 62%  
136 2% 56%  
137 11% 54% Median
138 3% 43%  
139 5% 40%  
140 15% 35%  
141 3% 21%  
142 3% 18%  
143 3% 15%  
144 4% 12%  
145 2% 8%  
146 0.8% 7%  
147 2% 6%  
148 2% 4%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.8% 2%  
151 0.4% 1.0%  
152 0.1% 0.6%  
153 0.2% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.9% 99.6%  
120 1.3% 98.7%  
121 1.0% 97%  
122 4% 96%  
123 1.1% 93%  
124 2% 92%  
125 3% 89%  
126 3% 86%  
127 2% 83%  
128 10% 80%  
129 14% 70%  
130 7% 56%  
131 6% 49% Median
132 8% 42%  
133 4% 35%  
134 2% 31%  
135 4% 28%  
136 7% 24%  
137 3% 18%  
138 1.1% 15%  
139 6% 13%  
140 1.1% 8%  
141 2% 7%  
142 1.1% 5%  
143 2% 4%  
144 0.5% 2%  
145 0.4% 2%  
146 0.7% 1.2%  
147 0.1% 0.4%  
148 0.2% 0.4%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 0.1% 99.6%  
100 0.3% 99.5%  
101 1.1% 99.2%  
102 1.0% 98%  
103 3% 97%  
104 10% 94%  
105 5% 85%  
106 9% 79%  
107 3% 71%  
108 7% 68%  
109 7% 61%  
110 9% 54% Median
111 8% 45%  
112 16% 37%  
113 3% 22%  
114 2% 19%  
115 3% 17%  
116 2% 13%  
117 2% 11%  
118 1.5% 9%  
119 1.2% 8%  
120 3% 6%  
121 0.4% 3%  
122 0.8% 3%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.4% 1.3%  
125 0.3% 1.0%  
126 0.1% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.5%  
129 0% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations