Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Expressen, 30 January–6 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 27.3% 25.9–28.8% 25.5–29.2% 25.2–29.5% 24.5–30.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 23.9% 22.6–25.3% 22.2–25.7% 21.9–26.0% 21.3–26.7%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 15.4% 14.3–16.6% 14.0–16.9% 13.7–17.2% 13.2–17.8%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.3% 8.5–10.3% 8.2–10.6% 8.0–10.9% 7.6–11.3%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.2% 6.5–8.1% 6.2–8.4% 6.1–8.6% 5.7–9.1%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 5.1% 4.5–5.9% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.7%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.4%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.5% 3.0–4.2% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.9%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.1% 1.7–2.6% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 101 96–108 95–109 93–111 90–114
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 89 84–94 82–96 80–98 78–101
Sverigedemokraterna 49 58 51–62 51–63 50–64 49–66
Centerpartiet 22 35 32–39 30–40 30–41 28–42
Vänsterpartiet 21 27 24–30 23–31 23–32 21–34
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 19 17–22 16–23 15–23 0–25
Liberalerna 19 19 15–21 0–22 0–23 0–24
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0–15 0–16 0–16 0–18
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.8%  
90 0.4% 99.5%  
91 0.4% 99.2%  
92 0.8% 98.8%  
93 1.1% 98%  
94 2% 97%  
95 4% 95%  
96 3% 92%  
97 11% 89%  
98 6% 78%  
99 9% 72%  
100 10% 63%  
101 4% 54% Median
102 6% 50%  
103 8% 44%  
104 4% 35%  
105 10% 32%  
106 5% 21%  
107 6% 16%  
108 3% 10%  
109 2% 7%  
110 0.8% 5%  
111 2% 4%  
112 1.2% 2%  
113 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
114 0.3% 0.6%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.6%  
79 0.5% 99.2%  
80 1.3% 98.6%  
81 1.1% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 2% 94%  
84 4% 93% Last Result
85 12% 89%  
86 9% 76%  
87 9% 68%  
88 7% 59%  
89 10% 52% Median
90 5% 42%  
91 6% 37%  
92 8% 31%  
93 7% 23%  
94 8% 16%  
95 2% 8%  
96 2% 6%  
97 1.1% 4%  
98 0.9% 3%  
99 1.2% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.2%  
101 0.4% 0.8%  
102 0.3% 0.4%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
50 2% 99.1%  
51 8% 97%  
52 5% 90%  
53 5% 84%  
54 6% 79%  
55 4% 73%  
56 5% 69%  
57 13% 64%  
58 8% 51% Median
59 10% 43%  
60 7% 33%  
61 11% 26%  
62 6% 15%  
63 5% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 1.4% 99.3%  
30 4% 98%  
31 2% 94%  
32 10% 91%  
33 19% 81%  
34 11% 62%  
35 15% 51% Median
36 10% 36%  
37 10% 26%  
38 5% 16%  
39 4% 11%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
22 2% 99.4%  
23 5% 98%  
24 10% 93%  
25 11% 83%  
26 19% 72%  
27 13% 53% Median
28 9% 40%  
29 14% 31%  
30 9% 17%  
31 5% 8%  
32 2% 4%  
33 1.4% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 0% 98.7%  
2 0% 98.7%  
3 0% 98.7%  
4 0% 98.7%  
5 0% 98.7%  
6 0% 98.7%  
7 0% 98.7%  
8 0% 98.7%  
9 0% 98.7%  
10 0% 98.7%  
11 0% 98.7%  
12 0% 98.7%  
13 0% 98.7%  
14 0.2% 98.7%  
15 1.0% 98%  
16 7% 97%  
17 9% 90%  
18 12% 82%  
19 22% 70% Median
20 21% 48%  
21 15% 27%  
22 7% 12%  
23 4% 6%  
24 1.1% 2%  
25 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 0% 94%  
8 0% 94%  
9 0% 94%  
10 0% 94%  
11 0% 94%  
12 0% 94%  
13 0% 94%  
14 0.2% 94%  
15 5% 94%  
16 10% 88%  
17 10% 78%  
18 13% 68%  
19 29% 55% Last Result, Median
20 11% 27%  
21 9% 15%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0% 17%  
7 0% 17%  
8 0% 17%  
9 0% 17%  
10 0% 17%  
11 0% 17%  
12 0% 17%  
13 0% 17%  
14 0.3% 17%  
15 10% 17%  
16 4% 7% Last Result
17 2% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 148 0% 140–156 139–157 136–159 132–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 148 0% 140–156 139–157 136–159 132–162
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 143 0% 137–152 134–155 132–157 126–160
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 141 0% 134–148 132–150 130–152 125–154
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 125 0% 119–135 118–138 117–141 114–144
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 128 0% 122–136 120–138 118–140 116–143
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 124 0% 118–130 116–133 114–134 111–138
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 121 0% 115–127 112–129 110–130 104–134

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.2% 99.8%  
132 0.2% 99.6%  
133 0.1% 99.4%  
134 1.0% 99.3%  
135 0.4% 98%  
136 0.4% 98%  
137 1.0% 97%  
138 0.6% 96%  
139 4% 96%  
140 3% 91%  
141 2% 88%  
142 2% 86%  
143 6% 84%  
144 5% 77%  
145 2% 73%  
146 4% 70%  
147 15% 66% Median
148 11% 51%  
149 3% 40%  
150 6% 37%  
151 8% 31%  
152 5% 24%  
153 4% 19%  
154 2% 15%  
155 3% 13%  
156 4% 11%  
157 2% 6%  
158 0.8% 4%  
159 2% 3% Last Result
160 0.5% 2%  
161 0.4% 1.0%  
162 0.2% 0.6%  
163 0.1% 0.4%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.2% 99.8%  
132 0.2% 99.6%  
133 0.1% 99.4%  
134 1.0% 99.3%  
135 0.4% 98%  
136 0.4% 98%  
137 1.0% 97%  
138 0.6% 96%  
139 4% 96%  
140 3% 91%  
141 2% 88%  
142 2% 86%  
143 6% 84%  
144 5% 77%  
145 2% 73%  
146 4% 70%  
147 15% 66% Median
148 11% 51%  
149 3% 40%  
150 6% 37%  
151 8% 31%  
152 5% 24%  
153 4% 19%  
154 2% 15%  
155 3% 13%  
156 4% 11%  
157 2% 6%  
158 0.8% 4%  
159 2% 3% Last Result
160 0.5% 2%  
161 0.4% 1.0%  
162 0.2% 0.6%  
163 0.1% 0.4%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0.1% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.2% 99.9%  
126 0.4% 99.7%  
127 0.1% 99.3%  
128 0.1% 99.2%  
129 0.2% 99.1%  
130 1.0% 98.9%  
131 0.3% 98%  
132 0.5% 98%  
133 0.7% 97%  
134 2% 96%  
135 0.8% 94%  
136 1.1% 93%  
137 7% 92%  
138 2% 85%  
139 5% 83%  
140 6% 78%  
141 10% 72% Last Result
142 5% 62%  
143 7% 57% Median
144 5% 50%  
145 9% 45%  
146 6% 36%  
147 3% 30%  
148 6% 27%  
149 2% 21%  
150 5% 19%  
151 3% 14%  
152 3% 11%  
153 0.8% 8%  
154 2% 7%  
155 0.9% 5%  
156 1.0% 4%  
157 1.2% 3%  
158 1.1% 2%  
159 0.3% 1.1%  
160 0.3% 0.8%  
161 0.1% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.4%  
163 0.1% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.8%  
122 0% 99.8%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
126 0.5% 99.4%  
127 0.4% 98.9%  
128 0.2% 98%  
129 0.5% 98%  
130 1.2% 98%  
131 0.9% 97%  
132 1.2% 96%  
133 1.3% 94%  
134 3% 93%  
135 4% 90%  
136 4% 86%  
137 8% 82%  
138 3% 74%  
139 6% 71%  
140 6% 65%  
141 11% 59%  
142 5% 47%  
143 8% 42% Median
144 5% 34%  
145 9% 30%  
146 6% 21%  
147 3% 15%  
148 5% 12%  
149 1.3% 7%  
150 1.5% 6%  
151 0.7% 4%  
152 2% 4%  
153 0.6% 1.3%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.2% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.3% 99.8%  
114 0.4% 99.5%  
115 0.4% 99.1%  
116 1.0% 98.7%  
117 0.8% 98%  
118 6% 97%  
119 3% 91%  
120 3% 88%  
121 4% 85%  
122 6% 81% Last Result
123 10% 75%  
124 13% 66% Median
125 4% 53%  
126 6% 49%  
127 8% 43%  
128 4% 35%  
129 4% 31%  
130 3% 27%  
131 3% 24%  
132 3% 21%  
133 5% 18%  
134 3% 13%  
135 2% 10%  
136 0.8% 8%  
137 1.4% 7%  
138 1.4% 6%  
139 0.8% 4%  
140 0.6% 3%  
141 0.5% 3%  
142 2% 2%  
143 0.1% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.5%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.7% 99.7%  
117 0.5% 99.0%  
118 2% 98.5%  
119 0.6% 97%  
120 3% 96%  
121 1.1% 93%  
122 4% 92%  
123 5% 89%  
124 6% 84%  
125 3% 78%  
126 14% 75%  
127 4% 61%  
128 11% 57% Median
129 3% 47%  
130 6% 43%  
131 10% 37%  
132 4% 27%  
133 4% 23%  
134 4% 18% Last Result
135 3% 14%  
136 4% 11%  
137 1.4% 7%  
138 2% 6%  
139 0.6% 3%  
140 1.0% 3%  
141 1.2% 2%  
142 0.2% 0.7%  
143 0.2% 0.5%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0.3% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.2% 99.6%  
112 0.8% 99.4%  
113 0.7% 98.6%  
114 0.9% 98%  
115 1.0% 97%  
116 3% 96%  
117 1.5% 93%  
118 9% 91%  
119 4% 82%  
120 5% 78%  
121 4% 73%  
122 6% 69%  
123 10% 62%  
124 13% 52% Median
125 4% 39%  
126 6% 34%  
127 9% 28%  
128 3% 19%  
129 4% 16%  
130 2% 12%  
131 1.5% 10%  
132 2% 8%  
133 2% 6%  
134 2% 4%  
135 0.3% 2%  
136 0.3% 2%  
137 0.1% 1.3%  
138 0.8% 1.3%  
139 0.2% 0.5%  
140 0% 0.3%  
141 0.2% 0.3%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.5%  
106 0.2% 99.3%  
107 0.1% 99.2%  
108 0.3% 99.0%  
109 0.7% 98.8%  
110 0.8% 98%  
111 0.8% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 3% 95%  
114 2% 92%  
115 5% 90%  
116 4% 85%  
117 7% 81%  
118 9% 74%  
119 8% 66%  
120 5% 58% Median
121 6% 53%  
122 9% 46%  
123 9% 37%  
124 2% 29%  
125 7% 27%  
126 6% 20%  
127 4% 14%  
128 4% 9%  
129 2% 6%  
130 2% 4%  
131 0.6% 2%  
132 0.4% 1.3%  
133 0.2% 0.9%  
134 0.3% 0.7%  
135 0.2% 0.4%  
136 0% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
139 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations