Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 5–15 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 27.2% 26.7–27.8% 26.5–28.0% 26.4–28.1% 26.1–28.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 23.7% 23.2–24.3% 23.0–24.5% 22.9–24.6% 22.6–24.9%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.2% 15.7–16.7% 15.6–16.8% 15.5–16.9% 15.2–17.1%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.5% 10.1–10.9% 10.0–11.0% 9.9–11.1% 9.7–11.3%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.2% 6.9–7.5% 6.8–7.6% 6.7–7.7% 6.5–7.9%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.0% 4.7–5.3% 4.6–5.4% 4.6–5.4% 4.5–5.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.6% 4.3–4.9% 4.3–5.0% 4.2–5.0% 4.1–5.2%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.8% 2.6–3.0% 2.5–3.1% 2.5–3.1% 2.4–3.3%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.4% 1.2–1.6% 1.2–1.6% 1.2–1.7% 1.1–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 101 99–102 98–104 98–104 97–105
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 87 85–89 85–90 85–91 84–92
Sverigedemokraterna 49 60 58–61 58–62 57–63 57–63
Centerpartiet 22 39 37–40 37–40 36–41 36–42
Vänsterpartiet 21 27 25–28 25–28 25–29 24–29
Liberalerna 19 19 18–20 17–20 17–20 17–21
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 17 16–18 16–18 16–19 15–19
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.3% 99.9%  
97 2% 99.6%  
98 4% 98%  
99 12% 94%  
100 16% 82%  
101 36% 66% Median
102 20% 30%  
103 4% 9%  
104 4% 5%  
105 0.5% 0.9%  
106 0.3% 0.3%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.4% 100%  
84 1.2% 99.5% Last Result
85 10% 98%  
86 28% 89%  
87 30% 61% Median
88 13% 31%  
89 10% 18%  
90 5% 9%  
91 3% 3%  
92 0.4% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 3% 99.6%  
58 8% 97%  
59 19% 89%  
60 30% 70% Median
61 31% 40%  
62 7% 9%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 100%  
36 4% 99.8%  
37 8% 96%  
38 26% 88%  
39 41% 63% Median
40 17% 21%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.7% 0.7%  
43 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.9% 100%  
25 10% 99.1%  
26 22% 89%  
27 55% 67% Median
28 9% 12%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 7% 99.6%  
18 36% 92%  
19 43% 57% Last Result, Median
20 12% 14%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 24% 98%  
17 57% 73% Median
18 12% 16%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 144 0% 143–147 142–148 141–148 140–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 144 0% 143–147 142–148 141–148 140–149
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 145 0% 142–146 142–147 141–148 140–149
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 145 0% 142–146 142–147 141–148 140–149
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 128 0% 126–129 125–130 124–131 123–132
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 126 0% 124–128 123–129 123–130 122–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 126 0% 124–128 123–129 123–130 122–130
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 118 0% 116–119 115–121 114–121 113–122

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0.1% 100%  
140 0.7% 99.9%  
141 2% 99.2% Last Result
142 7% 97%  
143 17% 90%  
144 35% 73%  
145 12% 38% Median
146 11% 27%  
147 10% 15%  
148 4% 6%  
149 1.2% 1.5%  
150 0.2% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100% Last Result
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 100%  
140 0.7% 99.9%  
141 2% 99.2%  
142 7% 97%  
143 17% 90%  
144 35% 73%  
145 12% 38% Median
146 11% 27%  
147 10% 15%  
148 4% 6%  
149 1.2% 1.5%  
150 0.2% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.9%  
140 0.8% 99.7%  
141 3% 98.9%  
142 7% 96%  
143 14% 89%  
144 20% 75%  
145 34% 55% Median
146 13% 21%  
147 4% 8%  
148 3% 3%  
149 0.6% 0.9%  
150 0.2% 0.2%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.9%  
140 0.8% 99.7%  
141 3% 98.9%  
142 7% 96%  
143 14% 89%  
144 20% 75%  
145 34% 55% Median
146 13% 21%  
147 4% 8%  
148 3% 3%  
149 0.6% 0.9%  
150 0.2% 0.2%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0.2% 100%  
123 0.8% 99.8%  
124 3% 99.0%  
125 5% 96%  
126 17% 91%  
127 20% 74%  
128 23% 54% Median
129 23% 31%  
130 4% 8%  
131 3% 3%  
132 0.5% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.1% Last Result
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0.2% 100%  
122 2% 99.8% Last Result
123 5% 98%  
124 18% 94%  
125 22% 76%  
126 23% 54% Median
127 14% 31%  
128 10% 18%  
129 4% 7%  
130 3% 4%  
131 0.3% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0.2% 100%  
122 2% 99.8%  
123 5% 98%  
124 18% 94%  
125 22% 76%  
126 23% 54% Median
127 14% 31%  
128 10% 18%  
129 4% 7%  
130 3% 4%  
131 0.3% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.8% 99.8%  
114 2% 99.0%  
115 4% 97%  
116 13% 93%  
117 15% 81%  
118 45% 66% Median
119 11% 21%  
120 4% 10%  
121 5% 6%  
122 0.6% 1.1%  
123 0.4% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations