Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 22 January–18 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 28.4% 27.6–29.2% 27.4–29.5% 27.2–29.7% 26.8–30.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 23.7% 22.9–24.5% 22.7–24.7% 22.5–24.9% 22.2–25.3%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 17.1% 16.4–17.8% 16.2–18.0% 16.1–18.2% 15.8–18.5%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 8.8% 8.3–9.3% 8.2–9.5% 8.0–9.6% 7.8–9.9%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.1% 7.6–8.6% 7.5–8.8% 7.4–8.9% 7.1–9.1%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.6% 4.2–5.0% 4.1–5.1% 4.0–5.2% 3.9–5.4%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.3% 3.9–4.7% 3.8–4.8% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.7% 2.4–3.0% 2.3–3.1% 2.3–3.2% 2.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 105 102–109 101–110 100–111 99–114
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 87 84–91 84–92 83–94 82–96
Sverigedemokraterna 49 63 61–66 60–67 59–68 58–70
Centerpartiet 22 33 31–35 30–35 30–36 29–37
Vänsterpartiet 21 30 28–32 28–33 27–33 26–34
Liberalerna 19 17 16–19 15–19 15–19 0–20
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 16 0–17 0–18 0–18 0–19
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.4% 99.9%  
99 1.0% 99.5%  
100 3% 98.5%  
101 4% 96%  
102 11% 92%  
103 18% 81%  
104 12% 63%  
105 10% 52% Median
106 13% 42%  
107 10% 28%  
108 8% 18%  
109 3% 10%  
110 3% 7%  
111 2% 4%  
112 1.3% 2%  
113 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.4% 99.9%  
82 1.3% 99.5%  
83 2% 98%  
84 11% 96% Last Result
85 10% 85%  
86 12% 75%  
87 14% 63% Median
88 16% 48%  
89 11% 32%  
90 7% 21%  
91 5% 14%  
92 4% 8%  
93 2% 4%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.4% 0.9%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.3% 100%  
58 0.8% 99.7%  
59 2% 98.9%  
60 7% 97%  
61 11% 90%  
62 18% 79%  
63 18% 61% Median
64 18% 43%  
65 12% 26%  
66 7% 13%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.7% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.7%  
30 7% 98%  
31 17% 91%  
32 23% 75%  
33 25% 52% Median
34 16% 26%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.7% 0.9%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.2%  
28 11% 96%  
29 24% 85%  
30 28% 61% Median
31 17% 33%  
32 11% 16%  
33 4% 5%  
34 1.0% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 5% 98%  
16 26% 93%  
17 34% 67% Median
18 22% 33%  
19 9% 11% Last Result
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 0% 87%  
8 0% 87%  
9 0% 87%  
10 0% 87%  
11 0% 87%  
12 0% 87%  
13 0% 87%  
14 0% 87%  
15 22% 87%  
16 38% 65% Median
17 21% 27%  
18 5% 6%  
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 150 0% 143–154 140–154 138–155 136–159
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 137 0% 133–141 132–144 131–145 124–147
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 137 0% 133–141 132–144 131–145 124–147
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 134 0% 131–140 130–141 129–143 128–145
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 120 0% 116–124 116–126 115–127 113–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 120 0% 116–124 116–126 115–127 113–130
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 120 0% 111–123 108–124 108–125 105–127

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0.2% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.6%  
137 1.0% 99.4%  
138 3% 98%  
139 0.7% 96%  
140 3% 95%  
141 2% 93%  
142 0.7% 91%  
143 2% 90%  
144 1.4% 88%  
145 2% 87%  
146 3% 84%  
147 7% 82%  
148 12% 75%  
149 10% 63%  
150 12% 53%  
151 17% 41% Median
152 9% 24%  
153 5% 15%  
154 6% 10%  
155 2% 4%  
156 1.1% 2%  
157 0.3% 1.2%  
158 0.2% 0.9%  
159 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.3% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.5%  
126 0.4% 99.3%  
127 0.3% 99.0%  
128 0.2% 98.6%  
129 0.2% 98%  
130 0.8% 98%  
131 1.2% 98%  
132 3% 96%  
133 10% 94%  
134 10% 84%  
135 11% 73%  
136 11% 62%  
137 10% 52% Median
138 15% 41%  
139 6% 26%  
140 7% 20%  
141 4% 14% Last Result
142 2% 10%  
143 2% 8%  
144 1.3% 6%  
145 3% 5%  
146 0.8% 2%  
147 0.3% 0.8%  
148 0.2% 0.5%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.3% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
126 0.4% 99.3%  
127 0.3% 99.0%  
128 0.2% 98.6%  
129 0.2% 98%  
130 0.8% 98%  
131 1.2% 98%  
132 3% 96%  
133 10% 94%  
134 10% 84%  
135 11% 73%  
136 11% 62%  
137 10% 52% Median
138 15% 41%  
139 6% 26%  
140 7% 20%  
141 4% 14%  
142 2% 10%  
143 2% 8%  
144 1.3% 6%  
145 3% 5%  
146 0.8% 2%  
147 0.3% 0.8%  
148 0.2% 0.5%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0.2% 99.9%  
128 0.7% 99.7%  
129 2% 99.0%  
130 3% 97%  
131 7% 94%  
132 13% 87%  
133 9% 74%  
134 15% 65% Last Result
135 13% 50% Median
136 7% 36%  
137 10% 29%  
138 7% 19%  
139 2% 13%  
140 4% 10%  
141 2% 7%  
142 1.1% 5%  
143 2% 4%  
144 0.6% 2%  
145 0.7% 1.1%  
146 0.2% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.4% 99.8%  
114 2% 99.4%  
115 2% 98%  
116 10% 96%  
117 9% 86%  
118 11% 77%  
119 13% 66%  
120 11% 53% Median
121 13% 41%  
122 8% 28% Last Result
123 6% 21%  
124 4% 14%  
125 2% 10%  
126 4% 8%  
127 2% 4%  
128 1.0% 2%  
129 0.5% 1.1%  
130 0.3% 0.6%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.4% 99.8%  
114 2% 99.4%  
115 2% 98%  
116 10% 96%  
117 9% 86%  
118 11% 77%  
119 13% 66%  
120 11% 53% Median
121 13% 41%  
122 8% 28%  
123 6% 21%  
124 4% 14%  
125 2% 10%  
126 4% 8%  
127 2% 4%  
128 1.0% 2%  
129 0.5% 1.1%  
130 0.3% 0.6%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.3% 99.9%  
105 0.5% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.1%  
107 1.0% 98.7%  
108 4% 98%  
109 2% 94%  
110 2% 92%  
111 2% 90%  
112 1.2% 89%  
113 0.5% 88%  
114 0.5% 87%  
115 1.1% 87%  
116 3% 85%  
117 4% 83%  
118 8% 79%  
119 19% 71%  
120 9% 52%  
121 11% 43% Median
122 16% 31%  
123 8% 15%  
124 4% 8%  
125 1.3% 4%  
126 1.2% 2%  
127 0.8% 1.2%  
128 0.2% 0.4%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations