Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 8–19 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 29.0% 27.5–30.6% 27.1–31.1% 26.7–31.5% 26.0–32.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 21.0% 19.7–22.5% 19.3–22.9% 19.0–23.2% 18.3–23.9%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.4–17.6% 14.1–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.5% 9.5–12.8% 9.0–13.3%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 9.0% 8.1–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.2%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.2% 3.6–6.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 112 105–116 103–119 101–120 99–124
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 81 75–86 74–87 73–89 69–91
Sverigedemokraterna 49 60 57–66 55–67 54–68 52–72
Centerpartiet 22 43 38–46 37–47 36–49 34–52
Vänsterpartiet 21 34 31–39 30–40 29–41 27–43
Liberalerna 19 19 16–22 16–23 0–24 0–25
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0 0 0–15 0–16
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0–16
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.6% 99.6%  
100 0.5% 99.0%  
101 1.3% 98.5%  
102 1.4% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 4% 94%  
105 2% 90%  
106 3% 88%  
107 8% 85%  
108 4% 77%  
109 10% 73%  
110 7% 63%  
111 5% 56%  
112 6% 52% Median
113 8% 45% Last Result
114 5% 37%  
115 10% 32%  
116 12% 22%  
117 2% 9%  
118 2% 7%  
119 3% 6%  
120 1.1% 3%  
121 0.7% 2%  
122 0.6% 1.4%  
123 0.2% 0.8%  
124 0.2% 0.6%  
125 0% 0.4%  
126 0.2% 0.3%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.6% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.2%  
71 0.3% 98.8%  
72 0.6% 98.5%  
73 0.7% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 8% 94%  
76 9% 86%  
77 5% 77%  
78 3% 72%  
79 2% 69%  
80 12% 67%  
81 22% 54% Median
82 9% 33%  
83 5% 23%  
84 3% 19% Last Result
85 2% 15%  
86 5% 13%  
87 4% 8%  
88 0.8% 4%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.6% 1.3%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.6% 99.6%  
53 0.7% 99.1%  
54 2% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 2% 94%  
57 3% 92%  
58 6% 89%  
59 19% 82%  
60 20% 63% Median
61 6% 43%  
62 2% 38%  
63 4% 35%  
64 11% 31%  
65 8% 19%  
66 5% 11%  
67 2% 6%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.4% 2%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.5%  
36 3% 98.7%  
37 4% 96%  
38 3% 92%  
39 7% 89%  
40 6% 82%  
41 7% 76%  
42 9% 69%  
43 22% 60% Median
44 14% 38%  
45 12% 23%  
46 4% 11%  
47 2% 7%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.0% 3%  
50 0.6% 2%  
51 0.3% 1.2%  
52 0.7% 0.9%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 0.8% 99.4%  
29 2% 98.7%  
30 4% 96%  
31 7% 92%  
32 15% 85%  
33 8% 70%  
34 13% 61% Median
35 9% 48%  
36 10% 39%  
37 10% 29%  
38 7% 20%  
39 6% 13%  
40 4% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 1.1%  
43 0.4% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0.4% 97%  
16 12% 96%  
17 21% 84%  
18 10% 63%  
19 11% 53% Last Result, Median
20 16% 42%  
21 13% 26%  
22 7% 12%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.4% 3%  
25 0.7% 1.2%  
26 0.3% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0% 3%  
11 0% 3%  
12 0% 3%  
13 0% 3%  
14 0% 3%  
15 1.3% 3%  
16 1.1% 1.5%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0% 2%  
9 0% 2%  
10 0% 2%  
11 0% 2%  
12 0% 2%  
13 0% 2%  
14 0% 2%  
15 1.1% 2%  
16 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 147 0% 140–153 137–155 136–156 133–161
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 147 0% 140–153 137–155 136–156 133–161
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 147 0% 139–153 137–154 135–155 133–160
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 141 0% 136–148 133–150 129–152 126–156
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 141 0% 135–147 133–149 128–151 125–154
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 123 0% 116–130 116–132 114–133 111–138
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 123 0% 116–129 116–130 114–132 111–135
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 112 0% 105–117 104–119 102–121 99–126

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.3% 99.7%  
134 0.5% 99.4%  
135 1.2% 98.9%  
136 0.7% 98%  
137 2% 97%  
138 2% 95%  
139 2% 93%  
140 6% 92%  
141 3% 85%  
142 2% 82%  
143 6% 80%  
144 7% 74%  
145 5% 67%  
146 9% 63% Median
147 8% 53%  
148 15% 45%  
149 8% 30%  
150 3% 22%  
151 5% 18%  
152 2% 13%  
153 4% 12%  
154 1.4% 7%  
155 3% 6%  
156 0.6% 3%  
157 0.7% 2%  
158 0.3% 2%  
159 0.3% 1.4% Last Result
160 0.3% 1.1%  
161 0.3% 0.8%  
162 0.2% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.3%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.3% 99.7%  
134 0.5% 99.4%  
135 1.2% 98.9%  
136 0.7% 98%  
137 2% 97%  
138 2% 95%  
139 2% 93%  
140 6% 92%  
141 3% 85%  
142 2% 82%  
143 6% 80%  
144 7% 74%  
145 5% 67%  
146 9% 63% Median
147 8% 53%  
148 15% 45%  
149 8% 30%  
150 3% 22%  
151 5% 18%  
152 2% 13%  
153 4% 12%  
154 1.4% 7%  
155 3% 6%  
156 0.6% 3%  
157 0.7% 2%  
158 0.3% 2%  
159 0.3% 1.4% Last Result
160 0.3% 1.1%  
161 0.3% 0.8%  
162 0.2% 0.5%  
163 0.1% 0.3%  
164 0% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.2% 99.7%  
133 0.7% 99.5%  
134 0.5% 98.8% Last Result
135 2% 98%  
136 0.9% 97%  
137 2% 96%  
138 2% 94%  
139 2% 92%  
140 7% 90%  
141 3% 83%  
142 2% 80%  
143 6% 78%  
144 7% 72%  
145 5% 65%  
146 9% 60% Median
147 8% 51%  
148 15% 42%  
149 8% 28%  
150 3% 20%  
151 5% 16%  
152 2% 12%  
153 4% 10%  
154 1.2% 6%  
155 2% 5%  
156 0.5% 2%  
157 0.7% 2%  
158 0.3% 1.1%  
159 0.2% 0.8%  
160 0.2% 0.6%  
161 0.1% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0.1% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.2% 99.7%  
126 1.4% 99.5%  
127 0.4% 98%  
128 0.2% 98%  
129 0.2% 98%  
130 0.5% 97%  
131 0.4% 97%  
132 1.0% 97%  
133 2% 95%  
134 1.5% 94%  
135 2% 92%  
136 5% 90%  
137 4% 85%  
138 3% 82%  
139 11% 79%  
140 3% 67%  
141 20% 64% Last Result
142 4% 45%  
143 7% 41% Median
144 7% 34%  
145 8% 27%  
146 3% 19%  
147 5% 16%  
148 2% 11%  
149 3% 9%  
150 2% 6%  
151 1.1% 4%  
152 1.0% 3%  
153 0.4% 2%  
154 0.7% 1.4%  
155 0.2% 0.8%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.2% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
126 1.4% 99.5%  
127 0.4% 98%  
128 0.3% 98%  
129 0.2% 97%  
130 0.6% 97%  
131 0.4% 97%  
132 1.1% 96%  
133 2% 95%  
134 2% 93%  
135 2% 91%  
136 5% 89%  
137 4% 84%  
138 3% 80%  
139 12% 77%  
140 3% 65%  
141 20% 62%  
142 4% 43%  
143 7% 39% Median
144 7% 32%  
145 8% 25%  
146 3% 17%  
147 5% 14%  
148 2% 9%  
149 2% 7%  
150 2% 4%  
151 1.0% 3%  
152 0.6% 2%  
153 0.2% 0.9%  
154 0.4% 0.7%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0.1% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.4% 99.6%  
112 0.2% 99.2%  
113 0.9% 99.0%  
114 1.1% 98%  
115 1.0% 97%  
116 7% 96%  
117 0.8% 89%  
118 6% 89%  
119 3% 82%  
120 5% 79%  
121 10% 75%  
122 3% 65% Last Result
123 14% 61%  
124 13% 47% Median
125 8% 34%  
126 8% 26%  
127 1.5% 19%  
128 4% 17%  
129 2% 13%  
130 5% 12%  
131 1.2% 6%  
132 2% 5%  
133 1.5% 4%  
134 0.8% 2%  
135 0.3% 1.4%  
136 0.3% 1.1%  
137 0.1% 0.8%  
138 0.3% 0.6%  
139 0.1% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.3%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.5% 99.5%  
112 0.3% 99.0%  
113 1.1% 98.8%  
114 1.2% 98%  
115 1.1% 96%  
116 7% 95%  
117 1.3% 89%  
118 7% 87%  
119 3% 81%  
120 5% 77%  
121 10% 73%  
122 3% 63%  
123 14% 59%  
124 13% 45% Median
125 8% 32%  
126 8% 24%  
127 1.5% 17%  
128 4% 15%  
129 2% 11%  
130 5% 10%  
131 1.2% 5%  
132 1.1% 4%  
133 1.1% 2%  
134 0.7% 1.4%  
135 0.2% 0.7%  
136 0.1% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.5% 99.7%  
100 0.2% 99.2%  
101 1.3% 99.0%  
102 1.2% 98%  
103 1.1% 97%  
104 3% 95%  
105 2% 92%  
106 3% 90%  
107 8% 87%  
108 3% 79%  
109 10% 75%  
110 6% 65%  
111 4% 59%  
112 6% 54% Median
113 8% 48%  
114 5% 40%  
115 10% 34%  
116 12% 24%  
117 2% 11%  
118 2% 9%  
119 3% 8%  
120 1.2% 4%  
121 0.8% 3%  
122 0.8% 2%  
123 0.4% 2%  
124 0.4% 1.2%  
125 0.1% 0.9%  
126 0.3% 0.8%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations