Opinion Poll by YouGov for Metro, 16–19 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 22.4% 20.9–24.0% 20.4–24.5% 20.1–24.9% 19.4–25.7%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 22.1% 20.6–23.8% 20.2–24.2% 19.8–24.6% 19.1–25.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 20.5% 19.0–22.1% 18.6–22.5% 18.3–22.9% 17.6–23.7%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 10.0% 9.0–11.2% 8.7–11.6% 8.4–11.9% 7.9–12.5%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.3% 8.3–10.5% 8.0–10.9% 7.8–11.2% 7.3–11.8%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.7% 4.0–5.6% 3.8–5.8% 3.6–6.1% 3.3–6.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.4% 2.8–4.2% 2.6–4.4% 2.5–4.6% 2.2–5.0%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 2.6% 2.1–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.1%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.5–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 88 81–94 79–96 78–97 75–101
Sverigedemokraterna 49 86 80–92 78–95 77–97 74–100
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 80 76–85 73–87 71–89 68–95
Vänsterpartiet 21 39 35–43 34–44 33–46 31–49
Centerpartiet 22 37 32–41 31–42 30–44 29–46
Liberalerna 19 18 0–21 0–22 0–23 0–25
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0–16 0–17 0–17 0–18
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0–15
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.7%  
76 0.2% 99.1%  
77 0.4% 98.8%  
78 3% 98%  
79 1.0% 96%  
80 1.3% 95%  
81 4% 94%  
82 3% 89%  
83 3% 87%  
84 10% 83%  
85 4% 74%  
86 1.4% 69%  
87 17% 68%  
88 6% 51% Median
89 1.4% 45%  
90 18% 43%  
91 8% 25%  
92 2% 17%  
93 3% 15%  
94 5% 12%  
95 2% 7%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.4% 2%  
99 0.4% 2%  
100 0.9% 1.5%  
101 0.2% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0% Last Result

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.4% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 99.3%  
76 0.9% 98.8%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 2% 94%  
80 4% 92%  
81 6% 88%  
82 5% 82%  
83 4% 77%  
84 8% 72%  
85 14% 65%  
86 5% 50% Median
87 18% 46%  
88 4% 28%  
89 3% 24%  
90 3% 21%  
91 7% 19%  
92 3% 12%  
93 2% 9%  
94 2% 7%  
95 2% 5%  
96 0.5% 3%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 0.4% 1.3%  
99 0.3% 0.9%  
100 0.2% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.2% 99.5%  
69 0.4% 99.3%  
70 0.6% 98.9%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 1.3% 97%  
73 1.3% 96%  
74 2% 95%  
75 2% 93%  
76 4% 90%  
77 6% 86%  
78 9% 80%  
79 20% 71%  
80 19% 51% Median
81 6% 31%  
82 7% 25%  
83 4% 18%  
84 4% 14% Last Result
85 2% 10%  
86 3% 8%  
87 1.5% 5%  
88 1.0% 4%  
89 0.7% 3%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.3% 2%  
92 0.3% 1.2%  
93 0.1% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.8%  
95 0.4% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 1.0% 99.2%  
33 1.5% 98%  
34 3% 97%  
35 4% 94%  
36 6% 89%  
37 9% 83%  
38 22% 75%  
39 10% 53% Median
40 5% 43%  
41 17% 37%  
42 8% 20%  
43 2% 12%  
44 5% 9%  
45 2% 5%  
46 0.6% 3%  
47 1.0% 2%  
48 0.6% 1.1%  
49 0.1% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 1.0% 99.6%  
30 2% 98.5%  
31 2% 97%  
32 5% 94%  
33 5% 89%  
34 5% 84%  
35 7% 79%  
36 10% 72%  
37 21% 62% Median
38 17% 41%  
39 5% 24%  
40 5% 19%  
41 5% 14%  
42 4% 9%  
43 2% 5%  
44 1.3% 3%  
45 0.8% 1.4%  
46 0.3% 0.6%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 0% 86%  
4 0% 86%  
5 0% 86%  
6 0% 86%  
7 0% 86%  
8 0% 86%  
9 0% 86%  
10 0% 86%  
11 0% 86%  
12 0% 86%  
13 0% 86%  
14 0% 86%  
15 0.7% 86%  
16 5% 85%  
17 15% 80%  
18 31% 65% Median
19 11% 35% Last Result
20 7% 24%  
21 8% 17%  
22 5% 9%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 1.4%  
25 0.5% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0% 18%  
3 0% 18%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 0% 18%  
7 0% 18%  
8 0% 18%  
9 0% 18%  
10 0% 18%  
11 0% 18%  
12 0% 18%  
13 0% 18%  
14 0% 18%  
15 1.0% 18%  
16 11% 17%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.5%  
7 0% 0.5%  
8 0% 0.5%  
9 0% 0.5%  
10 0% 0.5%  
11 0% 0.5%  
12 0% 0.5%  
13 0% 0.5%  
14 0% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.5%  
16 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.3%  
8 0% 0.3%  
9 0% 0.3%  
10 0% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.3%  
12 0% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.3%  
14 0% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 128 0% 122–140 119–144 117–148 114–149
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 128 0% 122–140 119–144 117–148 114–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 134 0% 123–141 119–143 117–145 112–148
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 134 0% 122–141 119–143 117–145 112–148
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 128 0% 119–133 116–135 115–137 112–142
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 116 0% 111–123 109–125 107–128 103–133
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 116 0% 111–123 109–125 106–128 103–133
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 90 0% 83–101 81–105 79–106 77–110

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.8%  
114 0.3% 99.6%  
115 0.6% 99.3%  
116 0.5% 98.7%  
117 2% 98%  
118 0.9% 96%  
119 2% 95%  
120 1.0% 93%  
121 2% 92%  
122 0.9% 91%  
123 3% 90%  
124 1.2% 87%  
125 4% 86%  
126 5% 81%  
127 4% 77% Median
128 25% 73%  
129 5% 48%  
130 6% 43%  
131 4% 36%  
132 5% 32%  
133 2% 27%  
134 3% 24%  
135 3% 21%  
136 2% 18%  
137 3% 17%  
138 2% 13%  
139 0.9% 12%  
140 1.5% 11%  
141 3% 9%  
142 0.5% 6%  
143 0.4% 6%  
144 0.4% 5%  
145 0.2% 5%  
146 0.4% 5%  
147 0.6% 4%  
148 2% 4%  
149 2% 2%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.8%  
114 0.3% 99.6%  
115 0.6% 99.3%  
116 0.5% 98.7%  
117 2% 98%  
118 0.9% 96%  
119 2% 95%  
120 1.0% 93%  
121 2% 92%  
122 0.9% 91%  
123 3% 90%  
124 1.2% 87%  
125 4% 86%  
126 5% 81%  
127 4% 76% Median
128 25% 73%  
129 5% 48%  
130 7% 42%  
131 4% 36%  
132 5% 32%  
133 2% 27%  
134 3% 24%  
135 3% 21%  
136 2% 18%  
137 3% 16%  
138 2% 13%  
139 0.9% 11%  
140 1.5% 11%  
141 3% 9%  
142 0.5% 6%  
143 0.3% 6%  
144 0.4% 5%  
145 0.2% 5%  
146 0.4% 5%  
147 0.6% 4%  
148 2% 4%  
149 2% 2%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.3% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.6%  
112 0.1% 99.6%  
113 0.1% 99.5%  
114 1.4% 99.4%  
115 0.1% 98%  
116 0.2% 98%  
117 2% 98%  
118 0.2% 95%  
119 1.1% 95%  
120 1.1% 94%  
121 0.8% 93%  
122 2% 92%  
123 1.3% 90%  
124 2% 89%  
125 2% 87%  
126 1.1% 86%  
127 1.4% 84%  
128 4% 83%  
129 2% 79%  
130 3% 77%  
131 6% 73%  
132 5% 67%  
133 3% 62%  
134 16% 59%  
135 4% 42% Median
136 12% 38%  
137 2% 26%  
138 4% 23%  
139 6% 20%  
140 2% 14%  
141 2% 12% Last Result
142 3% 9%  
143 2% 6%  
144 1.1% 4%  
145 2% 3%  
146 0.4% 1.4%  
147 0.2% 1.1%  
148 0.4% 0.8%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.3% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.6%  
112 0.1% 99.6%  
113 0.1% 99.5%  
114 1.4% 99.4%  
115 0.1% 98%  
116 0.2% 98%  
117 2% 98%  
118 0.2% 95%  
119 1.1% 95%  
120 1.1% 94%  
121 0.8% 93%  
122 2% 92%  
123 1.3% 90%  
124 2% 89%  
125 2% 87% Last Result
126 1.2% 85%  
127 1.4% 84%  
128 4% 83%  
129 2% 79%  
130 3% 76%  
131 6% 73%  
132 6% 67%  
133 3% 61%  
134 16% 58%  
135 4% 42% Median
136 12% 37%  
137 2% 25%  
138 3% 23%  
139 6% 19%  
140 2% 14%  
141 2% 11%  
142 3% 9%  
143 2% 6%  
144 1.1% 4%  
145 2% 3%  
146 0.4% 1.3%  
147 0.2% 0.9%  
148 0.4% 0.7%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.6%  
113 1.1% 99.3%  
114 0.6% 98%  
115 1.3% 98%  
116 2% 96%  
117 2% 95%  
118 2% 92%  
119 3% 91%  
120 1.1% 88%  
121 5% 87%  
122 2% 82%  
123 3% 80%  
124 3% 77%  
125 5% 73%  
126 5% 69%  
127 4% 63% Median
128 25% 59%  
129 5% 34%  
130 6% 29%  
131 4% 23%  
132 6% 19%  
133 4% 13%  
134 3% 10% Last Result
135 3% 7%  
136 1.0% 4%  
137 0.9% 3%  
138 0.3% 2%  
139 0.3% 2%  
140 0.5% 2%  
141 0.8% 1.3%  
142 0.2% 0.6%  
143 0% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.3% 99.6%  
104 0.4% 99.3%  
105 0.5% 98.9%  
106 0.8% 98%  
107 1.4% 98%  
108 0.9% 96%  
109 2% 95%  
110 2% 93%  
111 4% 91%  
112 5% 86%  
113 4% 82%  
114 8% 78%  
115 3% 70%  
116 17% 67%  
117 8% 50% Median
118 11% 42%  
119 5% 30%  
120 6% 25%  
121 2% 19%  
122 6% 17% Last Result
123 3% 11%  
124 1.4% 8%  
125 2% 7%  
126 0.9% 5%  
127 0.7% 4%  
128 0.6% 3%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.4% 2%  
131 0.4% 2%  
132 0.4% 1.3%  
133 0.4% 0.9%  
134 0.1% 0.5%  
135 0.2% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.3% 99.6%  
104 0.4% 99.2%  
105 0.5% 98.8%  
106 0.8% 98% Last Result
107 1.5% 97%  
108 1.0% 96%  
109 2% 95%  
110 2% 93%  
111 5% 91%  
112 5% 86%  
113 4% 81%  
114 8% 78%  
115 3% 70%  
116 17% 66%  
117 8% 49% Median
118 11% 41%  
119 5% 30%  
120 6% 25%  
121 2% 19%  
122 6% 17%  
123 3% 11%  
124 1.4% 8%  
125 2% 7%  
126 0.8% 4%  
127 0.7% 4%  
128 0.6% 3%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.3% 2%  
131 0.4% 2%  
132 0.4% 1.2%  
133 0.4% 0.9%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.2% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.6%  
77 0.3% 99.5%  
78 1.3% 99.3%  
79 0.5% 98%  
80 0.8% 97%  
81 3% 97%  
82 2% 94%  
83 2% 92%  
84 5% 89%  
85 4% 84%  
86 1.1% 80%  
87 15% 79%  
88 6% 64% Median
89 1.4% 58%  
90 16% 57%  
91 8% 41%  
92 2% 33%  
93 3% 31%  
94 4% 28%  
95 2% 23%  
96 2% 21%  
97 2% 20%  
98 2% 17%  
99 0.9% 15%  
100 3% 14%  
101 3% 11%  
102 0.6% 8%  
103 2% 7%  
104 0.4% 6%  
105 0.6% 5%  
106 2% 5%  
107 0.3% 2%  
108 0.1% 2%  
109 0.1% 2%  
110 1.4% 2%  
111 0.3% 0.5%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations