Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Expressen, 27 February–7 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 27.2% 25.8–28.7% 25.4–29.1% 25.1–29.4% 24.4–30.1%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 21.8% 20.5–23.2% 20.1–23.5% 19.8–23.9% 19.3–24.5%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 18.6% 17.4–19.9% 17.0–20.2% 16.8–20.6% 16.2–21.2%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.5% 7.7–9.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.3–10.0% 6.9–10.5%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 7.9% 7.1–8.8% 6.9–9.1% 6.7–9.3% 6.3–9.8%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.1% 4.5–5.9% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.6% 4.0–5.4% 3.8–5.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.4–6.1%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.8% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 102 96–106 94–107 92–109 90–113
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 81 75–86 74–89 73–90 70–92
Sverigedemokraterna 49 69 64–74 63–75 62–77 60–80
Vänsterpartiet 21 32 29–35 27–36 27–37 25–39
Centerpartiet 22 29 27–33 26–34 25–35 23–37
Liberalerna 19 19 17–22 16–23 16–24 0–25
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 17 15–20 0–20 0–21 0–22
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0–14 0–15 0–16
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.7% 99.7%  
91 0.8% 98.9%  
92 1.0% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 1.2% 94%  
96 5% 92%  
97 3% 88%  
98 8% 85%  
99 5% 77%  
100 13% 72%  
101 5% 58%  
102 10% 53% Median
103 11% 43%  
104 12% 32%  
105 4% 20%  
106 8% 16%  
107 3% 7%  
108 1.3% 5%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.5% 2%  
111 0.2% 1.1%  
112 0.4% 0.9%  
113 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
114 0.1% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.5%  
72 1.3% 99.2%  
73 1.1% 98%  
74 6% 97%  
75 2% 91%  
76 5% 89%  
77 3% 84%  
78 9% 81%  
79 10% 72%  
80 6% 62%  
81 15% 55% Median
82 12% 40%  
83 4% 28%  
84 7% 24% Last Result
85 4% 17%  
86 3% 13%  
87 3% 10%  
88 2% 7%  
89 3% 5%  
90 1.0% 3%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.8%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.6%  
61 0.9% 98.9%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 96%  
64 5% 94%  
65 4% 89%  
66 4% 85%  
67 9% 80%  
68 12% 71%  
69 11% 58% Median
70 8% 47%  
71 10% 39%  
72 12% 29%  
73 7% 18%  
74 4% 10%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.2% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.0%  
80 0.3% 0.7%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 0.8% 99.4%  
27 5% 98.6%  
28 3% 94%  
29 9% 91%  
30 10% 82%  
31 18% 72%  
32 17% 54% Median
33 16% 37%  
34 7% 21%  
35 6% 14%  
36 3% 8%  
37 2% 4%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100% Last Result
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 1.2% 99.4%  
25 3% 98%  
26 5% 95%  
27 11% 91%  
28 15% 79%  
29 16% 64% Median
30 10% 48%  
31 16% 39%  
32 9% 23%  
33 4% 14%  
34 6% 9%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.5% 1.3%  
37 0.4% 0.8%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 0% 99.2%  
4 0% 99.2%  
5 0% 99.2%  
6 0% 99.2%  
7 0% 99.2%  
8 0% 99.2%  
9 0% 99.2%  
10 0% 99.2%  
11 0% 99.2%  
12 0% 99.2%  
13 0% 99.2%  
14 0% 99.2%  
15 0.4% 99.2%  
16 5% 98.8%  
17 11% 94%  
18 29% 83%  
19 17% 54% Last Result, Median
20 22% 37%  
21 5% 15%  
22 5% 10%  
23 3% 6%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.9% 1.1%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 0% 93%  
8 0% 93%  
9 0% 93%  
10 0% 93%  
11 0% 93%  
12 0% 93%  
13 0% 93%  
14 0.5% 93%  
15 10% 92%  
16 18% 82%  
17 20% 64% Median
18 19% 45%  
19 15% 26%  
20 6% 10%  
21 3% 4%  
22 1.2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 0% 7%  
8 0% 7%  
9 0% 7%  
10 0% 7%  
11 0% 7%  
12 0% 7%  
13 0% 7%  
14 2% 7%  
15 3% 5%  
16 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 150 0% 142–156 139–158 136–160 132–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 150 0% 142–156 139–158 136–160 132–162
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 134 0% 126–139 125–141 123–144 120–146
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 129 0% 124–138 122–142 120–144 118–146
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 129 0% 123–136 121–138 119–141 116–143
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 118 0% 110–125 105–125 103–126 100–129
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 110 0% 105–119 104–123 102–125 100–129
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 110 0% 104–116 103–119 101–120 99–124

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.2% 99.8%  
131 0.1% 99.6%  
132 0.2% 99.5%  
133 0.2% 99.3%  
134 0.2% 99.1%  
135 1.4% 99.0%  
136 0.7% 98%  
137 0.8% 97%  
138 0.5% 96%  
139 2% 96%  
140 1.5% 94%  
141 1.4% 92%  
142 3% 91%  
143 1.2% 88%  
144 2% 87%  
145 5% 85%  
146 4% 80%  
147 8% 76%  
148 8% 68%  
149 9% 60%  
150 9% 51%  
151 5% 42% Median
152 6% 37%  
153 2% 31%  
154 15% 29%  
155 4% 14%  
156 4% 10%  
157 1.0% 7%  
158 2% 6%  
159 2% 4% Last Result
160 2% 3%  
161 0.2% 1.0%  
162 0.4% 0.8%  
163 0.1% 0.4%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.2% 99.8%  
131 0.1% 99.6%  
132 0.2% 99.5%  
133 0.2% 99.3%  
134 0.2% 99.1%  
135 1.4% 99.0%  
136 0.7% 98%  
137 0.8% 97%  
138 0.5% 96%  
139 2% 96%  
140 1.5% 94%  
141 1.4% 92%  
142 3% 91%  
143 1.2% 88%  
144 2% 87%  
145 5% 85%  
146 4% 80%  
147 8% 76%  
148 8% 68%  
149 9% 60%  
150 9% 51%  
151 5% 42% Median
152 6% 37%  
153 2% 31%  
154 15% 29%  
155 4% 14%  
156 4% 10%  
157 1.0% 7%  
158 2% 6%  
159 2% 4% Last Result
160 2% 3%  
161 0.2% 1.0%  
162 0.4% 0.8%  
163 0.1% 0.4%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.1% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.2% 99.9%  
120 1.0% 99.7%  
121 0.6% 98.7%  
122 0.5% 98%  
123 0.5% 98%  
124 0.8% 97%  
125 4% 96%  
126 2% 92%  
127 1.4% 90%  
128 2% 88%  
129 3% 86%  
130 6% 83%  
131 18% 77%  
132 3% 59%  
133 4% 56%  
134 10% 53% Last Result, Median
135 13% 43%  
136 12% 30%  
137 3% 17%  
138 1.4% 15%  
139 4% 13%  
140 3% 9%  
141 3% 6%  
142 0.9% 4%  
143 0.3% 3%  
144 0.4% 3%  
145 0.5% 2%  
146 1.2% 2%  
147 0.1% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7%  
117 0.1% 99.6%  
118 0.2% 99.5%  
119 1.3% 99.3%  
120 1.0% 98%  
121 2% 97%  
122 0.8% 95%  
123 4% 95%  
124 3% 90%  
125 2% 87%  
126 8% 85%  
127 13% 77%  
128 8% 64%  
129 11% 57% Median
130 4% 46%  
131 4% 42%  
132 6% 38%  
133 5% 32%  
134 3% 27%  
135 8% 24%  
136 5% 16%  
137 1.2% 11%  
138 1.0% 10%  
139 1.0% 9%  
140 0.7% 8%  
141 1.5% 7% Last Result
142 3% 6%  
143 0.8% 3%  
144 0.5% 3%  
145 0.9% 2%  
146 0.7% 1.2%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0% 0.3%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0.2% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.6%  
117 0.1% 99.4%  
118 0.3% 99.3%  
119 2% 99.0%  
120 1.2% 97%  
121 2% 96%  
122 1.0% 94%  
123 4% 93%  
124 3% 89%  
125 2% 85% Last Result
126 8% 83%  
127 15% 75%  
128 8% 60%  
129 11% 52% Median
130 5% 41%  
131 4% 36%  
132 6% 32%  
133 5% 26%  
134 3% 21%  
135 7% 18%  
136 4% 10%  
137 1.0% 6%  
138 0.9% 5%  
139 0.8% 4%  
140 0.5% 4%  
141 0.9% 3%  
142 1.2% 2%  
143 0.5% 0.9%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0% 0.3%  
146 0% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.7%  
100 0.5% 99.6%  
101 0.6% 99.1%  
102 0.2% 98%  
103 0.9% 98%  
104 1.0% 97%  
105 2% 96%  
106 0.6% 95%  
107 0.7% 94%  
108 0.3% 93%  
109 2% 93%  
110 0.7% 91%  
111 3% 90%  
112 2% 87%  
113 2% 85%  
114 3% 83%  
115 9% 80%  
116 10% 71%  
117 8% 61%  
118 6% 53%  
119 8% 47% Median
120 2% 39%  
121 13% 36%  
122 8% 23%  
123 2% 15%  
124 3% 13%  
125 6% 10%  
126 2% 4%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.4% 2%  
129 0.9% 1.4%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.3% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.5%  
101 2% 99.4%  
102 0.4% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 4% 95%  
105 3% 91%  
106 6% 88%  
107 3% 82%  
108 9% 79%  
109 15% 70%  
110 8% 55% Median
111 6% 47%  
112 5% 42%  
113 6% 37%  
114 3% 31%  
115 5% 28%  
116 7% 23%  
117 2% 15%  
118 2% 13%  
119 1.5% 11%  
120 2% 9%  
121 1.4% 7%  
122 0.5% 6% Last Result
123 2% 5%  
124 0.6% 4%  
125 1.1% 3%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.6% 1.3%  
128 0.1% 0.7%  
129 0.3% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.7% 99.7%  
100 0.3% 99.0%  
101 2% 98.7%  
102 0.7% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 5% 94%  
105 3% 89%  
106 7% 86% Last Result
107 4% 79%  
108 9% 76%  
109 15% 66%  
110 8% 51% Median
111 6% 43%  
112 5% 36%  
113 6% 32%  
114 3% 25%  
115 5% 22%  
116 7% 17%  
117 2% 10%  
118 2% 8%  
119 1.3% 6%  
120 2% 4%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.3% 2%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.5% 0.8%  
125 0% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations