Opinion Poll by Sifo for Svenska Dagbladet, 5–15 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 29.0% 28.4–29.6% 28.2–29.8% 28.1–29.9% 27.8–30.2%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 23.1% 22.5–23.7% 22.4–23.8% 22.3–24.0% 22.0–24.2%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 15.9% 15.4–16.4% 15.3–16.5% 15.2–16.6% 15.0–16.9%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 10.0% 9.6–10.4% 9.5–10.5% 9.4–10.6% 9.2–10.8%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.7% 7.4–8.1% 7.3–8.2% 7.2–8.3% 7.0–8.4%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.4% 4.1–4.7% 4.1–4.8% 4.0–4.8% 3.9–5.0%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.8% 3.6–4.1% 3.5–4.1% 3.4–4.2% 3.3–4.3%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.0% 2.8–3.2% 2.7–3.3% 2.7–3.4% 2.6–3.5%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.8% 1.6–2.0% 1.6–2.0% 1.5–2.1% 1.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 112 108–114 107–115 106–116 105–119
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 89 85–92 84–92 84–93 82–95
Sverigedemokraterna 49 61 58–63 57–64 57–65 56–66
Centerpartiet 22 39 37–40 36–41 36–41 35–42
Vänsterpartiet 21 30 28–31 28–32 27–32 27–33
Liberalerna 19 17 16–18 16–19 15–19 0–19
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0–15 0–15 0–16 0–16
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.7% 99.7%  
106 3% 98.9%  
107 2% 96%  
108 7% 94%  
109 7% 86%  
110 9% 79%  
111 14% 70%  
112 30% 56% Median
113 7% 26% Last Result
114 10% 20%  
115 6% 10%  
116 2% 4%  
117 0.6% 2%  
118 0.6% 1.1%  
119 0.3% 0.5%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 1.0% 99.9%  
83 1.2% 98.9%  
84 4% 98% Last Result
85 6% 94%  
86 5% 88%  
87 9% 84%  
88 17% 75%  
89 16% 58% Median
90 21% 42%  
91 10% 21%  
92 9% 12%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.6% 1.2%  
95 0.1% 0.5%  
96 0.4% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 5% 99.5%  
58 6% 95%  
59 9% 89%  
60 20% 80%  
61 15% 61% Median
62 27% 46%  
63 10% 19%  
64 5% 8%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.6% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 100%  
35 1.1% 99.8%  
36 5% 98.7%  
37 14% 94%  
38 27% 80%  
39 40% 53% Median
40 8% 13%  
41 4% 5%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.3% 100%  
27 3% 99.7%  
28 12% 97%  
29 25% 85%  
30 40% 60% Median
31 13% 20%  
32 6% 7%  
33 0.9% 0.9%  
34 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 3% 98%  
16 28% 95%  
17 27% 67% Median
18 34% 41%  
19 6% 6% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 0% 19%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 0% 19%  
8 0% 19%  
9 0% 19%  
10 0% 19%  
11 0% 19%  
12 0% 19%  
13 0% 19%  
14 0% 19%  
15 14% 19%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 142 0% 140–151 139–153 138–153 137–156
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 142 0% 140–151 139–153 138–153 137–156
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 145 0% 139–148 138–148 136–149 131–150
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 145 0% 139–148 138–148 136–149 131–150
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 142 0% 136–145 135–145 135–147 133–151
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 127 0% 123–130 122–132 121–132 119–137
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 127 0% 123–130 122–132 121–132 119–137
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 112 0% 110–123 110–124 109–124 108–127

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0.1% 100%  
137 0.6% 99.9%  
138 2% 99.3%  
139 4% 97%  
140 9% 93%  
141 12% 84%  
142 26% 73% Median
143 8% 46%  
144 9% 38%  
145 6% 29%  
146 1.4% 23%  
147 2% 22%  
148 0.4% 20%  
149 1.1% 19%  
150 3% 18%  
151 7% 15%  
152 3% 8%  
153 4% 6%  
154 0.5% 2%  
155 0.3% 1.1%  
156 0.4% 0.8%  
157 0% 0.5%  
158 0.2% 0.4%  
159 0% 0.2% Last Result
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0.1% 100%  
137 0.6% 99.9%  
138 2% 99.3%  
139 4% 97%  
140 9% 93%  
141 12% 84%  
142 26% 73% Median
143 8% 46%  
144 9% 38%  
145 6% 29%  
146 1.4% 23%  
147 2% 22%  
148 0.4% 20%  
149 1.1% 19%  
150 3% 18%  
151 7% 15%  
152 3% 8%  
153 4% 6%  
154 0.5% 2%  
155 0.3% 1.1%  
156 0.4% 0.8%  
157 0% 0.5%  
158 0.2% 0.4%  
159 0% 0.2% Last Result
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.2% 99.8%  
131 0.3% 99.6%  
132 0.1% 99.3%  
133 0.1% 99.3%  
134 0.6% 99.2%  
135 0.7% 98.6%  
136 0.9% 98%  
137 1.4% 97%  
138 3% 96%  
139 4% 92%  
140 6% 88%  
141 2% 82% Last Result
142 4% 79%  
143 8% 75%  
144 11% 67%  
145 21% 56% Median
146 11% 35%  
147 13% 24%  
148 6% 11%  
149 3% 4%  
150 1.1% 1.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100% Last Result
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.2% 99.8%  
131 0.3% 99.6%  
132 0.1% 99.3%  
133 0.1% 99.3%  
134 0.6% 99.2%  
135 0.7% 98.6%  
136 0.9% 98%  
137 1.4% 97%  
138 3% 96%  
139 4% 92%  
140 6% 88%  
141 2% 82%  
142 4% 79%  
143 8% 75%  
144 11% 67%  
145 21% 56% Median
146 11% 35%  
147 13% 24%  
148 6% 11%  
149 3% 4%  
150 1.1% 1.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0.1% 100%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0.4% 99.8%  
134 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
135 4% 98%  
136 6% 95%  
137 3% 88%  
138 5% 85%  
139 5% 80%  
140 9% 76%  
141 12% 66%  
142 26% 54% Median
143 8% 28%  
144 9% 20%  
145 6% 11%  
146 1.4% 5%  
147 2% 3%  
148 0.2% 1.1%  
149 0.2% 0.9%  
150 0.2% 0.7%  
151 0.4% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.2% 100%  
119 0.5% 99.8%  
120 2% 99.3%  
121 2% 98%  
122 4% 96% Last Result
123 7% 92%  
124 4% 85%  
125 3% 82%  
126 13% 79%  
127 15% 65%  
128 13% 50% Median
129 18% 37%  
130 11% 19%  
131 3% 8%  
132 4% 5%  
133 0.2% 2%  
134 0.6% 1.3%  
135 0.1% 0.7%  
136 0.1% 0.6%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.3% 0.4%  
139 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.2% 100%  
119 0.5% 99.8%  
120 2% 99.3%  
121 2% 98%  
122 4% 96%  
123 7% 92%  
124 4% 85%  
125 3% 82%  
126 13% 79%  
127 15% 65%  
128 13% 50% Median
129 18% 37%  
130 11% 19%  
131 3% 8%  
132 4% 5%  
133 0.2% 2%  
134 0.6% 1.3%  
135 0.1% 0.7%  
136 0.1% 0.6%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.3% 0.4%  
139 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0.3% 100%  
108 0.8% 99.7%  
109 3% 98.9%  
110 8% 96%  
111 14% 88%  
112 30% 74% Median
113 6% 44%  
114 10% 38%  
115 6% 28%  
116 2% 23%  
117 0.6% 20%  
118 0.7% 20%  
119 0.4% 19%  
120 0.8% 19%  
121 3% 18%  
122 2% 15%  
123 5% 13%  
124 6% 8%  
125 1.4% 2%  
126 0.1% 0.9%  
127 0.3% 0.8%  
128 0.3% 0.5%  
129 0% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations