Opinion Poll by Novus for SVT, 19 February–18 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 27.8% 27.0–28.6% 26.8–28.8% 26.6–29.0% 26.2–29.4%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 22.6% 21.9–23.3% 21.7–23.5% 21.5–23.7% 21.2–24.1%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 17.8% 17.1–18.5% 17.0–18.7% 16.8–18.9% 16.5–19.2%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.3% 8.8–9.8% 8.7–10.0% 8.6–10.1% 8.3–10.4%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 7.8% 7.3–8.3% 7.2–8.4% 7.1–8.6% 6.9–8.8%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.0% 4.6–5.4% 4.5–5.5% 4.4–5.6% 4.3–5.8%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 3.8% 3.5–4.2% 3.4–4.3% 3.3–4.3% 3.2–4.5%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.2% 2.9–3.5% 2.8–3.6% 2.8–3.7% 2.6–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 106 102–110 101–111 100–111 98–113
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 87 83–90 82–91 81–91 79–93
Sverigedemokraterna 49 68 65–71 64–72 63–73 62–74
Centerpartiet 22 36 34–38 33–38 32–39 31–40
Vänsterpartiet 21 30 28–32 27–32 27–33 26–34
Liberalerna 19 19 17–21 17–21 17–22 16–22
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0–15 0–16 0–16 0–17
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.1% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.5% 99.7%  
99 1.2% 99.2%  
100 1.3% 98%  
101 3% 97%  
102 5% 94%  
103 6% 88%  
104 9% 83%  
105 11% 74%  
106 14% 62% Median
107 16% 48%  
108 12% 32%  
109 8% 20%  
110 7% 12%  
111 3% 5%  
112 1.4% 2%  
113 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 1.1% 99.3%  
81 3% 98%  
82 3% 95%  
83 8% 92%  
84 8% 85% Last Result
85 11% 77%  
86 13% 66%  
87 17% 54% Median
88 13% 37%  
89 12% 24%  
90 6% 12%  
91 4% 6%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.6% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.7%  
63 2% 99.1%  
64 5% 97%  
65 7% 92%  
66 10% 85%  
67 14% 75%  
68 16% 61% Median
69 17% 46%  
70 12% 29%  
71 8% 17%  
72 5% 8%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.8% 100%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 6% 97%  
34 15% 90%  
35 18% 76%  
36 22% 57% Median
37 18% 36%  
38 14% 18%  
39 2% 4%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.8%  
27 4% 99.0%  
28 11% 95%  
29 20% 83%  
30 29% 63% Median
31 19% 34%  
32 11% 16%  
33 3% 4%  
34 1.2% 1.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.1% 99.9%  
17 10% 98.8%  
18 21% 89%  
19 35% 68% Last Result, Median
20 20% 33%  
21 10% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 0% 22%  
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0% 22%  
7 0% 22%  
8 0% 22%  
9 0% 22%  
10 0% 22%  
11 0% 22%  
12 0% 22%  
13 0% 22%  
14 0% 22%  
15 14% 22%  
16 7% 8%  
17 1.0% 1.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 138 0% 135–147 134–149 133–150 132–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 142 0% 136–146 134–147 134–148 131–149
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 142 0% 136–146 134–147 134–148 131–149
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 136 0% 132–140 130–141 129–142 127–144
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 123 0% 117–126 116–127 115–129 113–130
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 123 0% 117–126 116–127 115–129 113–129
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 108 0% 105–119 104–120 103–121 102–123

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0.1% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.3% 99.8%  
132 1.4% 99.5%  
133 1.5% 98%  
134 5% 97%  
135 7% 91%  
136 15% 85% Median
137 13% 70%  
138 11% 58%  
139 10% 46%  
140 6% 36%  
141 5% 30%  
142 2% 25%  
143 2% 23%  
144 2% 21%  
145 2% 19%  
146 2% 17%  
147 6% 15%  
148 3% 9%  
149 3% 6%  
150 2% 3%  
151 0.7% 1.3%  
152 0.4% 0.7%  
153 0.2% 0.3%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.4% 99.9%  
132 0.6% 99.5%  
133 1.3% 98.9%  
134 3% 98%  
135 3% 95%  
136 4% 92%  
137 4% 88%  
138 5% 83%  
139 6% 78%  
140 6% 72%  
141 10% 65% Last Result
142 12% 56% Median
143 17% 44%  
144 11% 27%  
145 5% 16%  
146 5% 11%  
147 4% 7%  
148 2% 3%  
149 0.4% 0.7%  
150 0.2% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100% Last Result
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.4% 99.9%  
132 0.6% 99.5%  
133 1.3% 98.9%  
134 3% 98%  
135 3% 95%  
136 4% 92%  
137 4% 88%  
138 5% 83%  
139 6% 78%  
140 6% 72%  
141 10% 65%  
142 12% 56% Median
143 17% 44%  
144 11% 27%  
145 5% 16%  
146 5% 11%  
147 4% 6%  
148 2% 3%  
149 0.4% 0.6%  
150 0.2% 0.2%  
151 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.3% 99.9%  
127 0.4% 99.6%  
128 0.9% 99.2%  
129 2% 98%  
130 3% 96%  
131 3% 93%  
132 7% 91%  
133 4% 84%  
134 9% 80% Last Result
135 8% 71%  
136 15% 64% Median
137 13% 49%  
138 11% 36%  
139 10% 24%  
140 6% 14%  
141 5% 8%  
142 2% 4%  
143 1.0% 2%  
144 0.5% 0.7%  
145 0.1% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.2% 99.9%  
113 0.4% 99.8%  
114 1.0% 99.3%  
115 2% 98%  
116 4% 97%  
117 3% 93%  
118 3% 89%  
119 8% 87%  
120 9% 79%  
121 7% 70%  
122 9% 63% Last Result
123 11% 54% Median
124 13% 43%  
125 17% 29%  
126 5% 12%  
127 2% 7%  
128 2% 5%  
129 2% 3%  
130 0.4% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.2% 99.9%  
113 0.4% 99.8%  
114 1.0% 99.3%  
115 2% 98%  
116 4% 97%  
117 3% 93%  
118 3% 89%  
119 8% 87%  
120 9% 79%  
121 7% 70%  
122 9% 63%  
123 11% 54% Median
124 13% 42%  
125 17% 29%  
126 5% 12%  
127 2% 7%  
128 2% 5%  
129 2% 3%  
130 0.4% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.4% 99.9%  
102 1.0% 99.5%  
103 3% 98.5%  
104 5% 95%  
105 8% 90%  
106 13% 82% Median
107 15% 69%  
108 12% 54%  
109 7% 42%  
110 7% 34%  
111 3% 27%  
112 1.5% 24%  
113 1.1% 23%  
114 1.2% 22%  
115 1.0% 21%  
116 1.4% 20%  
117 5% 18%  
118 3% 13%  
119 4% 10%  
120 3% 7%  
121 2% 4%  
122 0.8% 2%  
123 0.4% 0.8%  
124 0.3% 0.4%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations