Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, 8–19 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 27.7% 26.3–29.2% 25.9–29.7% 25.5–30.0% 24.9–30.8%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 20.8% 19.5–22.2% 19.2–22.6% 18.9–22.9% 18.3–23.6%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 16.8% 15.7–18.1% 15.3–18.5% 15.0–18.8% 14.5–19.4%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.9% 9.0–11.0% 8.7–11.3% 8.5–11.5% 8.1–12.0%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.9% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.2–11.0%
Liberalerna 5.4% 5.0% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 105 99–113 98–114 97–117 93–120
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 80 73–86 72–87 72–89 68–91
Sverigedemokraterna 49 64 60–69 58–70 57–72 55–75
Centerpartiet 22 38 34–42 33–44 32–44 31–47
Vänsterpartiet 21 34 30–38 30–39 29–40 27–42
Liberalerna 19 19 16–22 15–23 0–23 0–24
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 0 0–18 0–18 0–19 0–21
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0 0 0–16
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.6%  
94 0.4% 99.4%  
95 0.4% 99.0%  
96 0.7% 98.6%  
97 2% 98%  
98 3% 96%  
99 4% 93%  
100 5% 89%  
101 7% 84%  
102 6% 77%  
103 4% 71%  
104 6% 67%  
105 12% 62% Median
106 4% 50%  
107 11% 46%  
108 6% 35%  
109 8% 30%  
110 2% 22%  
111 5% 19%  
112 2% 14%  
113 3% 12% Last Result
114 4% 9%  
115 0.7% 4%  
116 0.9% 4%  
117 0.9% 3%  
118 0.7% 2%  
119 0.6% 1.1%  
120 0.2% 0.5%  
121 0.2% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.4%  
70 0.7% 99.0%  
71 0.7% 98%  
72 3% 98%  
73 5% 95%  
74 3% 90%  
75 4% 86%  
76 11% 82%  
77 8% 72%  
78 9% 63%  
79 4% 54%  
80 5% 50% Median
81 10% 45%  
82 6% 35%  
83 10% 29%  
84 4% 19% Last Result
85 4% 14%  
86 5% 11%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.0% 4%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.5%  
56 1.1% 99.1%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 96%  
59 3% 93%  
60 11% 91%  
61 10% 80%  
62 7% 69%  
63 6% 62%  
64 9% 56% Median
65 9% 47%  
66 8% 38%  
67 7% 30%  
68 10% 22%  
69 5% 12%  
70 2% 7%  
71 2% 5%  
72 1.0% 3%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.4% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.5%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 5% 96%  
34 4% 92%  
35 9% 88%  
36 8% 78%  
37 8% 70%  
38 13% 62% Median
39 14% 49%  
40 8% 35%  
41 14% 27%  
42 5% 13%  
43 2% 8%  
44 4% 6%  
45 0.6% 2%  
46 0.8% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.8%  
28 1.0% 99.3%  
29 2% 98%  
30 7% 96%  
31 7% 89%  
32 10% 82%  
33 12% 72%  
34 15% 60% Median
35 12% 45%  
36 14% 33%  
37 7% 20%  
38 4% 13%  
39 5% 9%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.8%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 4% 97%  
16 14% 92%  
17 16% 78%  
18 11% 62%  
19 8% 52% Last Result, Median
20 9% 44%  
21 15% 34%  
22 10% 20%  
23 7% 9%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Median
1 0% 49%  
2 0% 49%  
3 0% 49%  
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0% 49%  
7 0% 49%  
8 0% 49%  
9 0% 49%  
10 0% 49%  
11 0% 49%  
12 0% 49%  
13 0% 49%  
14 0.1% 49%  
15 8% 49%  
16 20% 42%  
17 11% 22%  
18 6% 10%  
19 2% 4%  
20 0.9% 1.4%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0% 2%  
8 0% 2%  
9 0% 2%  
10 0% 2%  
11 0% 2%  
12 0% 2%  
13 0% 2%  
14 0% 2%  
15 0.9% 2%  
16 1.1% 1.3% Last Result
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 149 0% 139–157 137–158 135–161 132–166
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 149 0% 139–157 137–158 135–161 132–166
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 139 0% 133–148 130–150 129–152 126–157
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 137 0% 129–145 126–147 124–149 118–152
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 137 0% 129–143 126–146 123–148 118–151
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 118 0% 111–125 109–128 108–130 104–134
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 117 0% 110–125 109–126 107–130 104–132
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 114 0% 104–124 101–125 100–127 97–131

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0.3% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.6%  
132 0.3% 99.6%  
133 0.3% 99.3%  
134 0.9% 99.0%  
135 2% 98%  
136 0.7% 96%  
137 2% 95%  
138 2% 93%  
139 4% 91% Median
140 4% 87%  
141 2% 84%  
142 3% 82%  
143 8% 80%  
144 5% 72%  
145 3% 67%  
146 3% 64%  
147 7% 61%  
148 4% 55%  
149 6% 51%  
150 5% 45%  
151 5% 40%  
152 4% 35%  
153 5% 31%  
154 5% 26%  
155 6% 21%  
156 2% 15%  
157 3% 12%  
158 5% 9%  
159 0.7% 5% Last Result
160 1.3% 4%  
161 0.5% 3%  
162 0.6% 2%  
163 0.5% 2%  
164 0.1% 1.1%  
165 0.4% 1.0%  
166 0.3% 0.6%  
167 0.1% 0.3%  
168 0.1% 0.2%  
169 0% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0.1% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0.3% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.6%  
132 0.3% 99.6%  
133 0.3% 99.3%  
134 0.9% 99.0%  
135 2% 98%  
136 0.7% 96%  
137 2% 95%  
138 2% 93%  
139 4% 91% Median
140 4% 87%  
141 2% 84%  
142 3% 82%  
143 8% 80%  
144 5% 72%  
145 3% 67%  
146 3% 64%  
147 7% 61%  
148 4% 55%  
149 6% 51%  
150 5% 45%  
151 5% 40%  
152 4% 35%  
153 5% 31%  
154 5% 26%  
155 6% 21%  
156 2% 15%  
157 3% 12%  
158 5% 9%  
159 0.7% 5% Last Result
160 1.3% 4%  
161 0.5% 3%  
162 0.6% 2%  
163 0.5% 2%  
164 0.1% 1.1%  
165 0.4% 1.0%  
166 0.3% 0.6%  
167 0.1% 0.3%  
168 0.1% 0.2%  
169 0% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0.1% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.2% 99.8%  
126 0.3% 99.5%  
127 0.3% 99.3%  
128 0.8% 99.0%  
129 2% 98%  
130 2% 96%  
131 1.0% 94%  
132 2% 93%  
133 3% 91%  
134 8% 88% Last Result
135 5% 81%  
136 3% 76%  
137 6% 73%  
138 7% 67%  
139 11% 60% Median
140 4% 49%  
141 6% 45%  
142 4% 39%  
143 8% 35%  
144 5% 27%  
145 3% 22%  
146 2% 19%  
147 5% 17%  
148 2% 12%  
149 4% 9%  
150 0.7% 5%  
151 0.7% 4%  
152 2% 4%  
153 0.6% 2%  
154 0.5% 1.4%  
155 0.1% 1.0%  
156 0.1% 0.8%  
157 0.3% 0.7%  
158 0.2% 0.5%  
159 0.1% 0.3%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0.1% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.1% 99.6%  
119 0.5% 99.4%  
120 0.2% 99.0%  
121 0.3% 98.7%  
122 0.4% 98%  
123 0.4% 98%  
124 0.5% 98%  
125 0.7% 97%  
126 1.4% 96%  
127 1.3% 95%  
128 1.1% 94%  
129 3% 93%  
130 4% 90%  
131 6% 86%  
132 2% 80%  
133 6% 78%  
134 9% 72%  
135 8% 63%  
136 3% 55%  
137 7% 52% Median
138 9% 45%  
139 7% 36%  
140 3% 29%  
141 5% 26% Last Result
142 6% 21%  
143 3% 15%  
144 1.1% 11%  
145 2% 10%  
146 3% 8%  
147 0.7% 6%  
148 2% 5%  
149 0.4% 3%  
150 0.9% 2%  
151 0.4% 1.3%  
152 0.4% 0.9%  
153 0.1% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.4%  
155 0.2% 0.3%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.7%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.2% 99.5%  
119 0.5% 99.3%  
120 0.3% 98.8%  
121 0.3% 98.5%  
122 0.5% 98%  
123 0.5% 98%  
124 0.6% 97%  
125 0.7% 97% Last Result
126 1.5% 96%  
127 1.3% 94%  
128 1.2% 93%  
129 3% 92%  
130 4% 89%  
131 6% 85%  
132 2% 79%  
133 6% 77%  
134 9% 70%  
135 8% 62%  
136 3% 54%  
137 7% 51% Median
138 9% 43%  
139 7% 34%  
140 3% 27%  
141 5% 24%  
142 6% 19%  
143 3% 13%  
144 0.9% 10%  
145 2% 9%  
146 3% 7%  
147 0.6% 4%  
148 2% 4%  
149 0.4% 2%  
150 0.6% 1.3%  
151 0.2% 0.7%  
152 0.4% 0.5%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.4% 99.7%  
105 0.3% 99.2%  
106 0.6% 98.9%  
107 0.7% 98%  
108 1.1% 98%  
109 3% 97%  
110 3% 94%  
111 2% 91%  
112 5% 88%  
113 7% 83%  
114 3% 76%  
115 3% 73%  
116 5% 70%  
117 15% 65%  
118 3% 51% Median
119 9% 48%  
120 5% 38%  
121 6% 33%  
122 6% 27% Last Result
123 3% 21%  
124 5% 18%  
125 3% 13%  
126 3% 10%  
127 1.1% 6%  
128 0.9% 5%  
129 0.6% 4%  
130 2% 4%  
131 0.2% 2%  
132 0.5% 1.4%  
133 0.3% 0.9%  
134 0.2% 0.6%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0% 0.3%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.5% 99.6%  
105 0.4% 99.1%  
106 0.7% 98.8% Last Result
107 0.7% 98%  
108 1.1% 97%  
109 3% 96%  
110 3% 93%  
111 2% 90%  
112 5% 88%  
113 7% 82%  
114 3% 75%  
115 3% 72%  
116 6% 69%  
117 15% 64%  
118 3% 49% Median
119 9% 46%  
120 5% 37%  
121 6% 31%  
122 6% 26%  
123 3% 19%  
124 5% 16%  
125 3% 11%  
126 3% 8%  
127 1.0% 5%  
128 0.8% 4%  
129 0.2% 3%  
130 2% 3%  
131 0.1% 0.8%  
132 0.4% 0.7%  
133 0.2% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.3% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.6%  
98 0.1% 99.4%  
99 0.3% 99.3%  
100 2% 99.1%  
101 2% 97%  
102 1.3% 94%  
103 1.5% 93%  
104 2% 91%  
105 4% 90% Median
106 2% 85%  
107 8% 84%  
108 1.2% 76%  
109 8% 75%  
110 2% 67%  
111 4% 65%  
112 3% 61%  
113 3% 59%  
114 7% 55%  
115 4% 48%  
116 4% 45%  
117 4% 40%  
118 5% 36%  
119 4% 32%  
120 3% 28%  
121 9% 25%  
122 4% 16%  
123 1.4% 12%  
124 2% 11%  
125 5% 9%  
126 1.1% 4%  
127 0.8% 3%  
128 0.5% 2%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.1%  
131 0.2% 0.7%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations