Opinion Poll by Demoskop for Expressen, 27 March–4 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 25.9% 24.5–27.3% 24.1–27.7% 23.8–28.1% 23.1–28.8%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 22.2% 20.9–23.6% 20.5–24.0% 20.2–24.3% 19.6–25.0%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 18.8% 17.6–20.1% 17.3–20.5% 17.0–20.8% 16.4–21.4%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.5% 8.6–10.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.2–11.1% 7.7–11.5%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 8.7% 7.8–9.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.4–10.2% 7.0–10.7%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 5.2% 4.5–6.0% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.4% 3.9–6.8%
Liberalerna 5.4% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 3.3% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 97 92–103 89–105 88–106 85–109
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 84 78–89 77–90 75–92 73–94
Sverigedemokraterna 49 70 66–76 64–77 62–78 61–82
Centerpartiet 22 35 33–40 31–41 30–41 29–44
Vänsterpartiet 21 32 29–36 29–37 28–38 26–40
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 20 17–22 16–23 16–25 0–25
Liberalerna 19 15 0–17 0–18 0–18 0–20
Kristdemokraterna 16 0 0 0–15 0–16 0–17
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.7%  
86 0.3% 99.4%  
87 1.2% 99.0%  
88 0.9% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 95%  
91 3% 93%  
92 7% 90%  
93 3% 83%  
94 6% 79%  
95 6% 73%  
96 9% 67%  
97 12% 58% Median
98 7% 46%  
99 10% 39%  
100 9% 29%  
101 6% 20%  
102 3% 15%  
103 3% 11%  
104 3% 8%  
105 2% 5%  
106 2% 4%  
107 1.0% 2%  
108 0.5% 1.2%  
109 0.4% 0.7%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1% Last Result
114 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.5% 99.6%  
74 0.8% 99.1%  
75 1.2% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 3% 96%  
78 10% 93%  
79 7% 82%  
80 4% 75%  
81 5% 71%  
82 9% 66%  
83 5% 57%  
84 10% 52% Last Result, Median
85 4% 42%  
86 4% 37%  
87 18% 33%  
88 5% 15%  
89 4% 10%  
90 2% 7%  
91 0.8% 5%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.7% 1.3%  
94 0.2% 0.7%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 2% 97%  
64 1.4% 96%  
65 3% 94%  
66 8% 92%  
67 2% 83%  
68 5% 81%  
69 13% 76%  
70 14% 63% Median
71 16% 49%  
72 4% 33%  
73 6% 29%  
74 4% 22%  
75 5% 19%  
76 9% 14%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.1% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 1.3% 99.7%  
30 2% 98%  
31 2% 96%  
32 2% 94%  
33 10% 92%  
34 18% 82%  
35 17% 64% Median
36 11% 46%  
37 12% 35%  
38 4% 23%  
39 5% 20%  
40 9% 15%  
41 3% 6%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.6% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.5%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.7% 99.7%  
27 0.8% 99.0%  
28 3% 98%  
29 9% 96%  
30 23% 87%  
31 11% 64%  
32 10% 53% Median
33 6% 43%  
34 12% 37%  
35 11% 25%  
36 5% 15%  
37 6% 10%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 1.4%  
40 0.3% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0% 99.4%  
5 0% 99.4%  
6 0% 99.4%  
7 0% 99.4%  
8 0% 99.4%  
9 0% 99.4%  
10 0% 99.4%  
11 0% 99.4%  
12 0% 99.4%  
13 0% 99.4%  
14 0% 99.4%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 3% 98%  
17 9% 95%  
18 12% 86%  
19 13% 74%  
20 23% 60% Median
21 9% 37%  
22 20% 28%  
23 3% 8%  
24 1.4% 5%  
25 3% 3% Last Result
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100%  
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 0% 55%  
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 0% 55%  
7 0% 55%  
8 0% 55%  
9 0% 55%  
10 0% 55%  
11 0% 55%  
12 0% 55%  
13 0% 55%  
14 0.2% 55%  
15 16% 55% Median
16 23% 39%  
17 9% 15%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.1% 2% Last Result
20 0.8% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 0% 7%  
8 0% 7%  
9 0% 7%  
10 0% 7%  
11 0% 7%  
12 0% 7%  
13 0% 7%  
14 0.4% 7%  
15 3% 6%  
16 2% 3% Last Result
17 0.5% 0.8%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 150 0% 142–156 140–159 138–161 134–163
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 150 0% 142–156 140–159 138–161 134–163
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna 141 128 0% 120–138 118–140 116–143 113–149
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 129 0% 122–136 121–138 119–140 117–143
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 128 0% 119–136 117–138 115–140 111–143
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 120 0% 112–127 112–130 111–134 108–138
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 120 0% 112–127 111–127 110–130 106–132
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 117 0% 111–123 108–126 106–128 102–129

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0% 99.8%  
133 0.1% 99.7%  
134 0.2% 99.6%  
135 0.3% 99.4%  
136 0.9% 99.1%  
137 0.6% 98%  
138 0.8% 98%  
139 0.9% 97%  
140 2% 96%  
141 1.4% 94%  
142 5% 92%  
143 8% 87%  
144 2% 79%  
145 4% 77%  
146 4% 73%  
147 6% 69%  
148 4% 63%  
149 4% 59% Median
150 14% 55%  
151 7% 42%  
152 5% 35%  
153 7% 30%  
154 6% 22%  
155 4% 16%  
156 3% 13%  
157 2% 9%  
158 0.9% 7%  
159 1.4% 6% Last Result
160 1.1% 5%  
161 2% 4%  
162 1.3% 2%  
163 0.3% 0.7%  
164 0.1% 0.4%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0% 99.8%  
133 0.1% 99.7%  
134 0.2% 99.6%  
135 0.3% 99.4%  
136 0.9% 99.1%  
137 0.6% 98%  
138 0.8% 98%  
139 0.9% 97%  
140 2% 96%  
141 1.4% 94%  
142 5% 92%  
143 8% 87%  
144 2% 79%  
145 4% 77%  
146 4% 73%  
147 6% 69%  
148 4% 63%  
149 4% 59% Median
150 14% 55%  
151 7% 42%  
152 5% 35%  
153 7% 30%  
154 6% 22%  
155 4% 16%  
156 3% 13%  
157 2% 9%  
158 0.9% 7%  
159 1.4% 6% Last Result
160 1.1% 5%  
161 2% 4%  
162 1.3% 2%  
163 0.3% 0.7%  
164 0.1% 0.4%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.3% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.6%  
114 0.8% 99.4%  
115 0.9% 98.6%  
116 0.4% 98%  
117 2% 97%  
118 3% 95%  
119 2% 92%  
120 2% 91%  
121 2% 88%  
122 7% 86%  
123 3% 79%  
124 2% 75%  
125 4% 74%  
126 4% 70%  
127 8% 66%  
128 11% 59%  
129 3% 48%  
130 4% 45%  
131 3% 41%  
132 3% 38%  
133 6% 35%  
134 2% 29% Median
135 3% 26%  
136 11% 24%  
137 2% 13%  
138 3% 10%  
139 1.5% 7%  
140 2% 6%  
141 0.4% 4% Last Result
142 0.7% 3%  
143 0.7% 3%  
144 0.3% 2%  
145 0.2% 2%  
146 0.3% 2%  
147 0.5% 1.3%  
148 0.1% 0.8%  
149 0.6% 0.7%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0.1% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.9% 99.5%  
118 0.4% 98.6%  
119 1.0% 98%  
120 2% 97%  
121 1.5% 96%  
122 6% 94%  
123 2% 88%  
124 3% 86%  
125 8% 83%  
126 5% 75%  
127 3% 70%  
128 9% 66%  
129 8% 58% Median
130 8% 49%  
131 9% 41%  
132 2% 33%  
133 8% 30%  
134 4% 23% Last Result
135 7% 19%  
136 3% 12%  
137 3% 9%  
138 2% 7%  
139 0.8% 4%  
140 2% 4%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.2% 1.4%  
143 0.8% 1.1%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.3% 99.8%  
111 0.2% 99.6%  
112 0.4% 99.4%  
113 0.2% 99.0%  
114 0.9% 98.8%  
115 1.0% 98%  
116 0.6% 97%  
117 2% 96%  
118 4% 94%  
119 2% 90%  
120 2% 88%  
121 2% 86%  
122 8% 84%  
123 4% 76%  
124 2% 72%  
125 4% 70% Last Result
126 4% 66%  
127 8% 62%  
128 11% 54%  
129 3% 44%  
130 4% 40%  
131 3% 37%  
132 3% 33%  
133 6% 30%  
134 2% 24% Median
135 3% 22%  
136 11% 19%  
137 2% 8%  
138 3% 6%  
139 1.0% 4%  
140 1.1% 3%  
141 0.3% 1.5%  
142 0.3% 1.2%  
143 0.3% 0.8%  
144 0.3% 0.5%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.5% 99.5%  
109 0.5% 99.0%  
110 0.7% 98.6%  
111 2% 98%  
112 7% 96%  
113 6% 89%  
114 3% 83%  
115 4% 81%  
116 4% 76%  
117 7% 73%  
118 5% 66%  
119 4% 60% Median
120 8% 57%  
121 9% 49%  
122 8% 40% Last Result
123 6% 32%  
124 2% 26%  
125 4% 23%  
126 4% 19%  
127 7% 15%  
128 0.7% 8%  
129 0.6% 7%  
130 2% 7%  
131 0.6% 4%  
132 0.7% 4%  
133 0.1% 3%  
134 2% 3%  
135 0.2% 1.2%  
136 0.2% 1.0%  
137 0.2% 0.8%  
138 0.3% 0.6%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
107 0.4% 99.5%  
108 0.8% 99.0%  
109 0.7% 98%  
110 2% 98%  
111 2% 96%  
112 8% 94%  
113 6% 87%  
114 3% 80%  
115 5% 78%  
116 4% 72%  
117 7% 69%  
118 6% 62%  
119 4% 55% Median
120 8% 51%  
121 9% 43%  
122 8% 34%  
123 6% 26%  
124 2% 20%  
125 3% 17%  
126 3% 14%  
127 7% 11%  
128 0.6% 4%  
129 0.3% 3%  
130 2% 3%  
131 0.5% 1.2%  
132 0.4% 0.7%  
133 0% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.7%  
102 0.1% 99.6%  
103 0.3% 99.5%  
104 0.2% 99.2%  
105 0.5% 98.9%  
106 1.2% 98%  
107 0.9% 97%  
108 1.4% 96%  
109 2% 95%  
110 2% 93%  
111 2% 91%  
112 10% 89%  
113 3% 79%  
114 9% 76%  
115 8% 67%  
116 4% 60%  
117 6% 56% Median
118 6% 49%  
119 12% 43%  
120 8% 31%  
121 8% 23%  
122 2% 15%  
123 4% 13%  
124 2% 8%  
125 1.2% 6%  
126 1.4% 5%  
127 0.6% 4%  
128 0.8% 3%  
129 2% 2%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations