Opinion Poll by Inizio for Aftonbladet, 3–9 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 31.0% 27.3% 26.1–28.6% 25.7–28.9% 25.4–29.3% 24.9–29.9%
Moderata samlingspartiet 23.3% 23.3% 22.2–24.5% 21.8–24.9% 21.6–25.2% 21.0–25.8%
Sverigedemokraterna 12.9% 15.9% 14.9–17.0% 14.7–17.3% 14.4–17.6% 14.0–18.1%
Centerpartiet 6.1% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Vänsterpartiet 5.7% 6.5% 5.9–7.2% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%
Kristdemokraterna 4.6% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.4–6.0% 4.3–6.2% 4.0–6.5%
Miljöpartiet de gröna 6.9% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Liberalerna 5.4% 3.9% 3.4–4.5% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.1%
Feministiskt initiativ 3.1% 2.3% 2.0–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.8–3.1% 1.6–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti 113 104 99–110 97–112 95–114 93–117
Moderata samlingspartiet 84 90 84–96 82–96 81–98 78–101
Sverigedemokraterna 49 61 56–66 56–67 55–68 53–71
Centerpartiet 22 34 32–38 31–39 30–40 28–42
Vänsterpartiet 21 25 22–28 22–29 21–29 19–31
Kristdemokraterna 16 20 17–22 17–23 16–24 15–25
Miljöpartiet de gröna 25 15 0–18 0–18 0–19 0–19
Liberalerna 19 0 0–17 0–17 0–18 0–19
Feministiskt initiativ 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.8% 99.3%  
95 1.3% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 3% 96%  
98 2% 93%  
99 10% 91%  
100 5% 80%  
101 6% 76%  
102 7% 70%  
103 5% 63%  
104 12% 58% Median
105 6% 46%  
106 10% 40%  
107 8% 30%  
108 4% 22%  
109 6% 18%  
110 3% 11%  
111 3% 8%  
112 2% 6%  
113 0.6% 4% Last Result
114 1.2% 3%  
115 0.5% 2%  
116 0.3% 1.4%  
117 0.8% 1.0%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moderata samlingspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.6% 99.8%  
79 0.5% 99.3%  
80 0.7% 98.8%  
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 3% 94%  
84 12% 91% Last Result
85 7% 79%  
86 8% 72%  
87 4% 64%  
88 4% 60%  
89 6% 57%  
90 5% 51% Median
91 10% 46%  
92 12% 36%  
93 5% 23%  
94 2% 18%  
95 6% 16%  
96 6% 10%  
97 2% 5%  
98 0.7% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.2% 1.5%  
101 1.0% 1.3%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Sverigedemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sverigedemokraterna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100% Last Result
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.5%  
54 0.9% 98.8%  
55 2% 98%  
56 12% 96%  
57 6% 84%  
58 4% 78%  
59 6% 74%  
60 6% 67%  
61 20% 62% Median
62 12% 42%  
63 6% 30%  
64 5% 24%  
65 7% 19%  
66 4% 12%  
67 3% 8%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.3% 1.2%  
70 0.4% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.5%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Centerpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centerpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100% Last Result
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.1%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 13% 92%  
33 17% 79%  
34 22% 62% Median
35 8% 40%  
36 9% 32%  
37 6% 23%  
38 9% 16%  
39 4% 7%  
40 1.2% 3%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Vänsterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vänsterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 0.8% 99.5%  
21 4% 98.7% Last Result
22 6% 95%  
23 12% 89%  
24 18% 77%  
25 22% 58% Median
26 10% 36%  
27 15% 26%  
28 6% 11%  
29 3% 6%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.7% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Kristdemokraterna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristdemokraterna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0% 99.6%  
7 0% 99.6%  
8 0% 99.6%  
9 0% 99.6%  
10 0% 99.6%  
11 0% 99.6%  
12 0% 99.6%  
13 0% 99.6%  
14 0% 99.6%  
15 0.4% 99.6%  
16 3% 99.1% Last Result
17 13% 97%  
18 12% 83%  
19 21% 71%  
20 24% 50% Median
21 13% 26%  
22 7% 13%  
23 4% 7%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.9% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Miljöpartiet de gröna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljöpartiet de gröna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 0% 54%  
4 0% 54%  
5 0% 54%  
6 0% 54%  
7 0% 54%  
8 0% 54%  
9 0% 54%  
10 0% 54%  
11 0% 54%  
12 0% 54%  
13 0% 54%  
14 0% 54%  
15 16% 54% Median
16 21% 38%  
17 6% 17%  
18 8% 11%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Liberalerna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalerna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Median
1 0% 43%  
2 0% 43%  
3 0% 43%  
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0% 43%  
7 0% 43%  
8 0% 43%  
9 0% 43%  
10 0% 43%  
11 0% 43%  
12 0% 43%  
13 0% 43%  
14 0% 43%  
15 10% 43%  
16 19% 33%  
17 10% 14%  
18 2% 4%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Feministiskt initiativ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Feministiskt initiativ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna 141 150 0% 141–161 139–162 137–164 134–168
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna 122 144 0% 134–153 134–153 132–154 129–158
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ 159 138 0% 127–147 126–150 124–152 122–155
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna 159 138 0% 127–147 126–150 124–152 122–155
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna 125 132 0% 121–140 119–143 117–144 116–148
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet 134 130 0% 123–136 121–138 119–141 115–143
Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet 106 124 0% 117–132 115–134 113–134 111–138
Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna 138 114 0% 103–123 101–124 100–126 97–129

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0.4% 99.8%  
135 0.2% 99.4%  
136 0.8% 99.1%  
137 2% 98%  
138 1.4% 96%  
139 1.0% 95%  
140 3% 94%  
141 3% 91% Last Result
142 4% 89%  
143 1.5% 85%  
144 3% 83% Median
145 5% 80%  
146 9% 74%  
147 2% 65%  
148 4% 63%  
149 4% 60%  
150 11% 56%  
151 5% 44%  
152 3% 40%  
153 9% 37%  
154 4% 28%  
155 4% 23%  
156 2% 19%  
157 2% 17%  
158 1.2% 15%  
159 2% 14%  
160 1.4% 12%  
161 3% 11%  
162 3% 8%  
163 1.1% 5%  
164 2% 4%  
165 0.6% 2%  
166 0.6% 1.5%  
167 0.2% 0.9%  
168 0.3% 0.7%  
169 0.2% 0.3%  
170 0.1% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Kristdemokraterna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0.2% 99.8%  
129 0.1% 99.6%  
130 0.4% 99.5%  
131 1.0% 99.1%  
132 1.0% 98%  
133 0.5% 97%  
134 10% 97%  
135 1.0% 87%  
136 6% 86%  
137 3% 79%  
138 3% 76%  
139 4% 73%  
140 5% 70%  
141 4% 64%  
142 6% 60%  
143 3% 54%  
144 4% 52% Median
145 8% 47%  
146 11% 39%  
147 2% 28%  
148 4% 25%  
149 4% 22%  
150 3% 17%  
151 2% 15%  
152 2% 13%  
153 6% 11%  
154 2% 4%  
155 1.2% 2%  
156 0.2% 1.2%  
157 0.5% 1.0%  
158 0.1% 0.6%  
159 0.3% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna – Feministiskt initiativ

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.8%  
121 0.3% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.5%  
123 0.9% 99.3%  
124 2% 98%  
125 0.8% 96%  
126 2% 96%  
127 4% 94%  
128 0.8% 90%  
129 2% 89%  
130 2% 87%  
131 8% 84%  
132 4% 77%  
133 3% 73%  
134 4% 70%  
135 4% 66%  
136 5% 62%  
137 4% 57%  
138 11% 53%  
139 3% 42%  
140 2% 39%  
141 3% 37%  
142 3% 34%  
143 3% 30%  
144 2% 27% Median
145 4% 25%  
146 4% 22%  
147 9% 17%  
148 1.5% 8%  
149 0.8% 6%  
150 2% 6%  
151 0.9% 3%  
152 1.4% 3%  
153 0.6% 1.2%  
154 0.1% 0.6%  
155 0.4% 0.5%  
156 0% 0.2%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.8%  
121 0.3% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.5%  
123 0.9% 99.3%  
124 2% 98%  
125 0.8% 96%  
126 2% 96%  
127 4% 94%  
128 0.8% 90%  
129 2% 89%  
130 2% 87%  
131 8% 84%  
132 4% 77%  
133 3% 73%  
134 4% 70%  
135 4% 66%  
136 5% 62%  
137 4% 57%  
138 11% 53%  
139 3% 42%  
140 2% 39%  
141 3% 37%  
142 3% 34%  
143 3% 30%  
144 2% 27% Median
145 4% 25%  
146 4% 22%  
147 9% 17%  
148 1.5% 8%  
149 0.8% 6%  
150 2% 6%  
151 0.9% 3%  
152 1.4% 3%  
153 0.6% 1.2%  
154 0.1% 0.6%  
155 0.4% 0.5%  
156 0% 0.2%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0% Last Result

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet – Liberalerna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.2% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.4% 99.6%  
117 2% 99.1%  
118 0.8% 97%  
119 2% 97%  
120 4% 95%  
121 2% 91%  
122 1.5% 89%  
123 5% 88%  
124 2% 83% Median
125 4% 81% Last Result
126 9% 77%  
127 5% 68%  
128 3% 63%  
129 4% 60%  
130 3% 55%  
131 2% 52%  
132 6% 50%  
133 11% 44%  
134 9% 33%  
135 4% 25%  
136 2% 21%  
137 2% 19%  
138 2% 17%  
139 2% 15%  
140 3% 13%  
141 0.8% 10%  
142 3% 9%  
143 1.1% 6%  
144 2% 5%  
145 2% 2%  
146 0.1% 0.9%  
147 0.1% 0.8%  
148 0.3% 0.7%  
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.2% 0.3%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Vänsterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.5% 99.8%  
116 0.3% 99.4%  
117 0.5% 99.1%  
118 0.8% 98.6%  
119 1.2% 98%  
120 1.1% 97%  
121 2% 96%  
122 2% 94%  
123 12% 92%  
124 4% 80%  
125 3% 76%  
126 4% 73%  
127 10% 69%  
128 5% 59%  
129 4% 54% Median
130 4% 50%  
131 17% 46%  
132 5% 30%  
133 4% 25%  
134 5% 21% Last Result
135 4% 16%  
136 6% 13%  
137 2% 7%  
138 1.0% 5%  
139 1.2% 4%  
140 0.6% 3%  
141 1.2% 3%  
142 0.3% 1.3%  
143 0.5% 1.0%  
144 0.2% 0.5%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Moderata samlingspartiet – Centerpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100% Last Result
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.2% 99.6%  
112 1.4% 99.4%  
113 0.7% 98%  
114 0.7% 97%  
115 2% 97%  
116 1.4% 95%  
117 14% 93%  
118 4% 79%  
119 3% 75%  
120 6% 72%  
121 4% 66%  
122 3% 62%  
123 7% 59%  
124 4% 52% Median
125 8% 49%  
126 10% 40%  
127 6% 31%  
128 4% 25%  
129 5% 21%  
130 2% 16%  
131 1.5% 13%  
132 2% 12%  
133 2% 10%  
134 5% 8%  
135 0.4% 2%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 0.8% 1.3%  
138 0.2% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti – Miljöpartiet de gröna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.3%  
99 0.8% 99.1%  
100 2% 98%  
101 2% 96%  
102 3% 94%  
103 2% 91%  
104 4% 89%  
105 2% 85%  
106 7% 83%  
107 7% 77%  
108 2% 70%  
109 6% 68%  
110 3% 62%  
111 2% 59%  
112 5% 57%  
113 1.4% 52%  
114 10% 51%  
115 2% 40%  
116 2% 38%  
117 7% 36%  
118 2% 29%  
119 2% 27% Median
120 9% 26%  
121 2% 17%  
122 4% 15%  
123 4% 11%  
124 3% 7%  
125 2% 5%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 1.5% 2%  
128 0.3% 0.8%  
129 0.1% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.4%  
131 0.3% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations